印度尼西亚新经济团队在首次真正考验中失手。面对市场再度走弱，央行周三未能实施加息，而加息本可有助于遏制MSCI公司可能降级造成的损害。
Indonesia’s new economic team flubbed its first real test. Faced with renewed weakness in markets, the central bank didn’t deliver on an interest rate increase on Wednesday, which would’ve helped contain the damage from a likely downgrade by MSCI Inc.
那些可能重振信心的艰难抉择仅仅被推迟了，却无法回避。货币当局必须决定在相互竞争的目标中优先考虑哪一个：支持增长，还是捍卫货币？
Tough decisions that may revive confidence have merely been delayed, but can’t be avoided. The monetary authority must decide which of its competing objectives to prioritize: supporting growth or shoring up the currency?
央行行长德斯特里·达马扬蒂不仅放弃上调基准利率，还通过降低银行法定准备金率来增加银行体系流动性。宣布消息后，印尼盾下跌，但股市收复了部分失地。
Not only did Governor Destry Damayanti forgo lifting the benchmark rate, she moved to boost liquidity in the banking system by cutting the level of reserves lenders are required to hold. The rupiah fell after the announcement, though stocks erased some of their losses.
维持货币稳定是央行职责的关键，而稳定正是东南亚最大经济体当前最需要的。自总统普拉博沃·苏比安托在两年多前当选后着手重塑关键国家机构以来，这种稳定在很大程度上一直缺位。今年以来，印尼盾兑美元已贬值约7%，跌至历史低位。普拉博沃周三态度强硬，表示印尼不会被全球指数提供商吓倒。
Key to the central bank's mandate is the stability of the currency, and steadiness is what Southeast Asia's biggest economy needs right now. It's also what’s been largely missing since President Prabowo Subianto began trying to remake key state institutions after he was elected more than two years ago. The rupiah has lost about 7% against the dollar since January, sinking to record lows this year. Prabowo struck a defiant tone on Wednesday, saying Indonesia won't be intimidated by the global index provider.
德斯特里错失一个有力支持货币的机会，这并不令人安心。央行强调倾向于使用干预等现有工具防止无序下跌。但印尼央行至少已在市场干预了一年，却未能阻止印尼盾成为亚洲兑美元表现最差的货币。
It's not reassuring that Destry passed on an opportunity to provide robust support for the currency. The bank stressed it prefers to use existing tools such as intervention to prevent disorderly declines. But BI has been wading into the market for at least a year and that hasn’t prevented the rupiah turning in Asia’s worst performance against the greenback.
需要更有力的举措。越来越多的经济学家也这么认为。印尼央行在未来几个月很可能被迫加息，且幅度可能更大。
Something more is needed. A growing number of economists thought so, too. BI is likely to be pushed into hikes in coming months and they may be more extensive.
一周前，这场会议看起来将是一场无关紧要的例行公事。今年早些时候，当印尼盾暴跌、该国债券需求萎缩时，官员们已收紧了政策。累计 100 个基点的加息似乎已足够。
A week ago, the meeting was shaping up as a non-event. Officials had tightened policy earlier in the year when the rupiah tumbled and demand for the country’s bonds eroded. The cumulative 100 basis of hikes looked like being sufficient.
随后上周，明晟（MSCI）突然表示可能将印尼从全球指数中剔除，令投资者措手不及。股市暴跌，印尼盾和主权债券看起来岌岌可危。经济学家开始预测央行将加息；花旗集团和彭博经济学预测将加息半个百分点。
Then last week, MSCI blindsided investors by suggesting it might remove Indonesia from global indexes. Stocks plunged, and the rupiah and sovereign debt looked very shaky. Economists began to predict that the central bank would hike; Citigroup Inc. and Bloomberg Economics forecast a half-point increase.
明晟剔除印尼的前景，可能引发外资外逃，而外资是普拉博沃实现其竞选时承诺的快速增长所必需的。官员们一直在争分夺秒地应对这一重磅消息，承诺加强股市透明度、清除害群之马。但言辞无法替代行动。印尼证券交易所表示，将把高度集中所有权的公司从基准指数计算中剔除，这可能提升该指数的整体质量和代表性。
The prospect of ejection by MSCI risks an exodus of the foreign capital required if Prabowo is to attain the rapid growth he campaigned on. Officials have been scrambling to respond to the bombshell, making assurances about strengthening transparency in the stock market and removing bad actors. But the rhetoric is no substitute for action. The stock exchange said it would remove companies with highly concentrated ownership from the calculation of the benchmark index, which could improve the gauge’s overall quality and representativeness.
一次预期中的加息本可表明印尼能够做出一些艰难决定。明晟的最终裁决预计要到 6 月才会出炉，留出了大量时间让事态恶化。
A prospective hike would have demonstrated that Indonesia can take some uncomfortable decisions. MSCI's final verdict isn't expected until June, leaving a lot of time for things to unravel.
这位行长是一位经验丰富的公务员，去年 9 月在前任被总统的盟友逼退后接手。此前担任高级副行长的德斯特里曾参与印尼央行在疫情期间稳经济、以及应对随后全球通胀飙升的决策。通胀刚刚处于央行目标区间内，经济扩张保持完好。最大的悬念是普拉博沃会给予多大的独立性。
The governor is an experienced civil servant who took the reins in September after her predecessor was forced out by the president’s allies. Elevated from the position of senior deputy governor, Destry was at the table when BI shored up the economy during the pandemic and responded to the surge in global inflation that followed. Inflation is just within the central bank's target range and the expansion is intact. The big question was how much independence Prabowo would allow.
最新的决定并不令人鼓舞。凯投宏观的杰森·图维在一份报告中表示：“如果政策优先事项缺乏更清晰的指引，央行就有损害其公信力的风险，而此时它本已面临日益严格的审视。”
The latest decision wasn't encouraging. “Without greater clarity over its policy priorities, the central bank risks undermining its credibility at a time when it was already coming under growing scrutiny,” Jason Tuvey of Capital Economics said in a note.
归根结底，让德斯特里采取必要行动符合总统的利益。普拉博沃的支持率已跌破50%，认为国家走在正确道路上的印尼人也变少了。这并非一个会对加息欢呼雀跃的环境，但强硬措施有助于吸引外资。在经历了动荡的年初后，投资者已开始回流，官方曾指望从明晟那里获得喘息机会。
Ultimately, it's in the president's interest to let Destry do what's required. Prabowo's popularity has sunk below 50% and fewer Indonesians say the nation is heading in the right direction. That's not an environment where higher interest rates will be cheered, but tough measures can help attract foreign capital. After a rocky start to the year, investors had begun to return and officials had hoped for a reprieve from MSCI.
德斯特里也并非对明晟的悲观看法负最终责任的人。监管机构以及普拉博沃才是，后者设定了总体治理基调。不过，这位央行行长是负责善后的人。
Nor is Destry the person who bears ultimate responsibility for MSCI's dour view. That's for the regulators as well as Prabowo, who sets the overall tone of governance. The central banker is, however, the person in charge of the cleanup.
现在不是1998年，当时货币崩溃和国际货币基金组织的强硬手段迫使独裁者苏哈托下台。但此刻并非无足轻重。央本有机会大显身手。它本可以做得更好。
This isn't 1998, when a currency implosion and hardball tactics from the International Monetary Fund forced autocrat Suharto to quit. But the moment isn’t inconsequential. The central bank had a chance to shine. It can do better.