吉隆坡 -- 据市场分析师称，由于干旱天气打击了东南亚主要产区的产量，且生物柴油需求上升，棕榈油价格预计将在明年保持高位。
KUALA LUMPUR -- Palm oil prices are expected to remain high into next year as dry weather hits output in Southeast Asia's key production areas and demand rises for biodiesel, according to market analysts.
棕榈油主要用于食品加工，其价格受天气以及葵花籽油、大豆油等替代品价格的影响。马来西亚和印度尼西亚是世界上最大的棕榈油生产国，占全球产量的80%以上。
The price of palm oil, which is mainly used for food processing, is influenced by weather as well as prices for substitutes like sunflower and soybean oil. Malaysia and Indonesia are the world's biggest producers of palm oil, accounting for more than 80% of global output.
本周，马来西亚交易所的基准原棕榈油期货交易价格在每公吨4800令吉（约合1176美元）左右。今年年初价格约为4000令吉，但随着中东冲突加剧而上涨。8月下旬，价格一度突破5000令吉。
Benchmark crude palm oil futures on the Bursa Malaysia exchange traded around 4,800 ringgit ($1,176) per metric ton this week. Prices stood at about 4,000 ringgit at the beginning of the year but have risen as the Middle East conflict has intensified. In late August, they peaked above 5,000 ringgit.
10月7日，在吉隆坡举行的马来西亚棕榈油论坛上，市场研究机构ISTA Mielke执行董事托马斯·米尔克表示，受棕榈油供应收紧以及黑海地区葵花籽油出口前景不明的影响——俄乌冲突持续影响该地区的生产和运输——棕榈油价格可能在2027年第一季度达到5000令吉。
At the Malaysian Palm Oil Forum in Kuala Lumpur on Oct. 7, Thomas Mielke, executive director at market researcher ISTA Mielke, said the commodity could reach 5,000 ringgit by the first quarter of 2027, citing tightening palm oil supplies and uncertainty surrounding sunflower oil exports from the Black Sea region -- where the Russia-Ukraine conflict continues to affect production and shipping.
他说：“马来西亚棕榈油很容易……再次达到5000令吉。问题在于何时。我估计最早可能在1月就会再次看到这一价位。” Glenauk Economics董事朱利安·麦吉尔表示，厄尔尼诺现象带来的干旱正在影响棕榈油价格。他说，印度尼西亚目前的天气模式“非常干燥”，给南苏门答腊和南加里曼丹等易旱地区带来了数月的低雨量。
"We can easily get 5,000 ringgit ... again for Malaysian palm oil," he said. "The question is when. I would assume we will see this back again as early as January." Julian McGill, director at Glenauk Economics, said droughts brought on by El Nino are affecting palm oil prices. The ongoing weather pattern in Indonesia has been "very dry," bringing several months of low rainfall to drought-prone regions like South Sumatra and South Kalimantan, he said.
麦吉尔指出：“印度尼西亚才是真正的问题所在。”他说，随着市场开始预期潜在的产量损失，印度尼西亚干旱对价格的影响可能在明年第二季度变得更加明显。
"Indonesia is really where the issue is," McGill pointed out. He said the impact of the drought in Indonesia on prices could become more apparent in the second quarter of next year as markets begin to anticipate potential production losses.
在需求端，分析师在论坛上表示，各国政府的生物柴油政策持续支撑市场，因为高企的柴油价格使生物柴油在经济上更具吸引力。
On the demand side, governments' biodiesel policies continue to underpin the market, analysts said at the forum, as elevated diesel prices have made biodiesel economically more attractive.
据马来西亚鸿隆投资银行（Hong Leong Investment Bank）称，厄尔尼诺现象对棕榈油产量的影响预计将在2027年变得更加显著。“考虑到天气胁迫对油棕产量的滞后影响，我们预计更显著的产量影响将在2027年显现，”该研究机构在10月9日的报告中指出。不过，前景可能取决于其他食用油的价格。
According to Malaysia's Hong Leong Investment Bank, the effect of El Nino on palm oil production is expected to become more pronounced in 2027. "Given the lagged impact of weather stress on oil palm yields, we expect the more significant production impact to materialize in 2027," the research house said in a report dated Oct. 9. Still, the outlook may depend on the prices of other edible oils.
“关于厄尔尼诺现象及明年可能减产的消息，也促使全球买家囤积棕榈油库存。然而，一旦超过特定价位，棕榈油与大豆油、葵花籽油等其他油类的价差将发挥作用，买家将根据现行价格进行转单，”研究机构弗若斯特沙利文（Frost and Sullivan）化工、材料与营养总监尼基尔·瓦拉巴恩（Nikhil Vallabhan）对《日经亚洲》表示。
"The news on El Nino and possible lower yields next year is also prompting global buyers to stockpile inventories of palm oil. However, beyond a specific price point, the spread between palm oil and other oil[s] such as soybean and sunflower will kick in, and buyers will switch based on prevailing prices," Nikhil Vallabhan, director for chemicals, materials and nutrition at research specialist Frost and Sullivan, told Nikkei Asia.
“2027年上半年，全球消费者可能面临食用油价格上涨，生物燃料价格也将走高。这些涨幅可能加剧多个经济体的通胀压力，”他说。
"The first half of 2027 could see edible oil prices rise for consumers worldwide, alongside higher biofuel prices. These increases could add to inflationary pressures in several economies," he said.