“走向动荡的最初步骤看似很简单明了：人们对实际工资的下降、资本主义的侵略行为以及议会的不作为感到愤怒；这种愤怒被煽动者进一步加剧……理性与本能之间的冲突愈演愈烈。”本周在法国各城市闹事的那些人中，几乎没有人会认出这些话的出处。但许多人会赞同写下这些话的英美记者乔治·丹杰菲尔德（George Dangerfield）的观点。
“The first steps into the Unrest seem straightforward enough—anger at the fall of real wages, at capitalist aggression, at the unwillingness of Parliament; anger fomented by agitators...reason wars with instinct.”Few of those who mobbed French cities this week would recognise those words. But many would agree with George Dangerfield, the British-American journalist who wrote them. The demonstrators were consumed by rage.
那些示威者被愤怒所驱使——他们对国家的无能、对那些执政的中间派政治家的失望感到愤怒；他们对高昂的物价和经济混乱感到愤怒；对中间派政治本身的存在也感到愤怒。
Rage at the failure of the state and against the floundering centrist politicians who govern. Rage at high prices and economic dysfunction. And for some, rage against the idea of centrist politics at all.
丹杰菲尔德曾在第一次世界大战前写道关于“自由主义英格兰的‘奇怪死亡’”。一些人预言，今天的自由主义欧洲也将面临类似的命运：纵火、暴民暴力、抢劫以及大规模抗议活动都表明了民众对领导者的极度失望。法国有着悠久的示威传统，但上周末全国范围内那些戴着面具、手持武器的暴徒所引发的暴力事件异常严重。
Dangerfield wrote about “the strange death of liberal England” in the years before the first world war. Some predict a similarly grim fate for liberal Europe today. Arson, mob violence, looting and mass protests show how much citizens despair of their leaders. France has a long tradition of the manif, but the violence unleashed by hooded and masked rioters across the country over the past weekend was unusually severe.
比利时、意大利和葡萄牙也发生了类似的抗议活动。在即将到来的选举中（首先是下个月的西班牙选举，然后是明年的法国和波兰选举），选民们准备惩罚那些温和派政党；在意大利，极右翼势力正在逐渐超越曾以中间路线执政的朱莉娅·梅洛尼（Giorgia Meloni）。在政治舞台上，更多具有魅力的极端主义人物正在蓄势待发，其中包括法国的玛丽娜·勒庞（Marine Le Pen）和德国的爱丽丝·韦德尔（Alice Weidel）。
Protests also flared in Belgium, Italy and Portugal. In looming elections, first in Spain next month, then in France and Poland next year, voters are poised to punish moderate parties—and in Italy the far right is outflanking the populist Giorgia Meloni, who has governed from the centre. In the wings wait more charismatic figures from the extremes, including Marine Le Pen in France and Alice Weidel in Germany.
阅读我们 专题的其余内容吧。在美国和欧洲，许多人认为问题的根源在于欧洲的中坚力量（即那些传统政治势力）。唐纳德·特朗普声称欧洲之所以陷入混乱，是因为欧洲领导人拒绝接受他的建议，放任边境开放，每年都有数百万来自阿富汗、阿尔及利亚和叙利亚的移民涌入欧洲。像埃隆·马斯克这样的“MAGA”运动支持者认为，不断增长的穆斯林人口才是最大的威胁；有些人甚至荒谬地预言“文明的消亡”或内战的发生。
Read the rest of our cover package Many in America and in Europe say the centre has only itself to blame. Donald Trump crows that Europe is on fire because its leaders spurned his advice, left their borders open and let millions of immigrants rush in each year, from Afghanistan, Algeria and Syria. Those on the MAGA right, such as Elon Musk, say growing Muslim populations pose the greatest threat. Some talk, apocalyptically and absurdly, of “civilisational erasure” or civil war.
就连德国总理弗里德里希·默茨本周也表示，高移民率以及未能有效整合外来人口是导致欧洲社会动荡的根源之一。匈牙利新任总理彼得·马加尔也持有类似的观点。
Even in Germany the chancellor, Friedrich Merz, said this week that high rates of migration and a failure to integrate the foreign-born are partly behind the sudden, violent upheaval. So has Hungary’s newish prime minister, Peter Magyar.
他们的分析要么是出于怯懦，要么是出于自私的动机。毫无疑问，许多欧洲选民确实希望控制移民和庇护制度的规模；但关于这些暴力抗议活动的成因，他们的判断完全错误。实际上，欧洲中间派面临的问题要复杂得多，也更难以解决。
Their analysis is either craven or self-serving. Undoubtedly, many European voters also wish to curb immigration and asylum. But when it comes to the violent protests, the diagnosis is plain wrong. Instead the problems facing Europe’s centrists are more complex—and less easy to fix.
尽管法国的一些年轻抗议者穿着阿尔及利亚足球队的球衣、高喊支持巴勒斯坦的口号，但当今欧洲的动荡并非由种族或宗教问题引发。周六，法国有超过50万人参加游行，其中大多数人并未佩戴口罩，且都是白人。与其他国家的情况一样，他们之所以愤怒，主要是因为生活成本高昂以及公共服务质量低下。他们要求增加燃油补贴、增加教育投入、提供更多社会福利。
Even if some young protesters in France wear Algerian football shirts or chant pro-Palestinian slogans, the upheaval in Europe today is not about race or religion. Over 500,000 people marched in France on Saturday and they were largely unmasked and white. They were fired up, as in other countries, by the cost of living and poor public services. They want more fuel subsidies, more spending on schools, more handouts.
或许，这些抗议者中最多数人支持民粹主义左翼人士让-吕克·梅朗雄——这位年事已高的煽动者曾是一名托洛茨基主义者，他的立场更接近伯尼·桑德斯，而非ISIS的领导人。
Perhaps the largest group are aligned with the populist-left Jean-Luc Mélenchon, an ageing rabble-rouser and one-time Trotskyist, more akin to Bernie Sanders than an emir of ISIS.
真正的暴力事件确实发生了，但将其归咎于种族因素是错误的。暴徒们袭击了公共建筑、警车等目标；他们还砸毁了路易威登等奢侈品商店，以及由移民经营的中小店铺。警方未能维持秩序——此前他们曾因对学生抗议者的暴力行为而受到指责。大部分暴力行为实际上是由持有革命政治目标的激进分子煽动和策划的。其中最典型的例子是一名30多岁的法国白人男子：他在利摩日焚烧了一座19世纪的市政厅后被捕。
Real violence did follow. But blame that on other factors, none to do with race. Mobs struck at public buildings, police cars and more. They also smashed and grabbed from luxury retailers, like Louis Vuitton, and small stores run by immigrants. The police failed to keep order, having earlier been accused of brutality against student protesters. And much of the violence was incited and orchestrated by anarchists, who have a revolutionary political agenda. Typical among them is a man arrested after the burning of a 19th-century town hall in Limoges, a white French citizen in his mid-30s.
尽管批评者的观点是错误的，但欧洲的中坚派确实面临着严峻的问题——法国的情况恰恰说明了这些问题的严重性。首先，财政困境使得有效的政治行动变得极为困难。2018至2019年，当埃马纽埃尔·马克龙面临“黄背心”抗议者的强烈抗议时，他还能动用数十亿欧元来平息事态；如今，这种情况已不再可能。法国的支出过高，经济增长速度极慢（在马克龙执政期间，年均增长率仅为1%多一点）。
Although the critics are wrong, Europe’s centrists do face real problems—and France shows how serious they are. The first is the fiscal bind that makes effective political action so hard. When Emmanuel Macron, the president, faced huge protests by the gilets jaunes in 2018-19, he could deploy billions of euros to placate them. Today, that is no longer possible. France is spending too much and growing too slowly—by just over 1% a year under Mr Macron.
今年秋天，立法者将努力通过一项预算案，试图将财政赤字削减0.4个百分点（降至占GDP的5%这一不可持续的水平），但政府仍有可能倒台。法国的债务负担过重，市场对其政治人物的信任度极低，以至于法国政府债券的收益率与德国政府债券的收益率之间的差距已升至欧元危机期间的水平。
This autumn, lawmakers will struggle to pass a budget that cuts the deficit by a feeble 0.4 percentage points, to an unsustainable 5% of GDP. And still the government may fall. France is so overborrowed, and markets have so little faith in its politicians, that spreads of French government bonds over German ones have soared to levels last seen during the euro crisis.
面对这些挑战，欧洲的中坚派似乎毫无应对之策。曾经，《经济学人》杂志将马克龙誉为激进中立主义的代表人物；如今，当这些中坚派蜷缩在一起寻求庇护时，所有的精力都集中在极端势力身上。调查显示，超过80%的法国人对未来感到悲观，尤其是对经济前景感到失望。梅尔茨总统极不受欢迎，他可能会被迫下台。
Instead of rising to this challenge, the centrists seem out of ideas. The Economist once cheered Mr Macron as a bold new standard-bearer for radical centrism. Today, while centrists huddle together for protection, all the energy is at the extremes. Surveys say over 80% of the French are pessimistic about their future, especially about their economy.
他那些反对移民的言论，恰恰反映出他无法找到合适的言辞和策略来应对德国的“选择德国”政党（Alternative for Germany）。总之，欧洲的中坚派陷入了困境，缺乏有效的解决方案。
Mr Merz is deeply unpopular and may be forced from office. His anti-migrant sniping reflects his inability to find the words and ideas to see off Ms Weidel and her party, the Alternative for Germany.
难怪中间派面临选举惨败。民调显示，西班牙中左翼总理佩德罗·桑切斯（Pedro Sánchez）恐将很快被赶下台，取而代之的是中间派与民粹右翼的联盟。在法国，骚乱——以及将罪责归咎于移民的谬论——可能会在5月把民粹右翼国民联盟（National Rally）的勒庞女士（Ms Le Pen）送上总统宝座。民调显示，暴力事件本周提振了她的声势。当马克龙先生（Mr Macron）飞往海湾国家访问时，勒庞女士发表了一场听起来极具总统风范的演讲，呼吁恢复公共秩序。
No wonder the centrists face an electoral walloping. Polls show that Pedro Sánchez, the centre-left prime minister in Spain, will probably be turfed out soon to be replaced by a coalition of the centre- and populist right. In France the riots—and the myth that immigrants were to blame—may lift Ms Le Pen of the populist-right National Rally into the presidency in May. Polls show that the violence boosted her this week. While Mr Macron jetted off on a trip to the Gulf, Ms Le Pen gave a presidential-sounding speech calling for public order.
法国的暴力事件应当震醒那些逃避现实的中间派，迫使他们直面失败的后果。如果他们的国家陷入动荡，他们将失去权力。如果他们失去权力，欧盟将陷入瘫痪，而世界其他地区却在飞速前进。如果债券市场冻结，金融传染可能蔓延。如果欧盟国家对俄罗斯的弗拉基米尔·普京（Vladimir Putin）姑息迁就，他只会变得更加咄咄逼人。丹杰菲尔德（Dangerfield）描写的是一个大多数人尚未察觉即将到来的灾难的时代。而今天的自由派再无此等借口。
The violence in France should jolt head-in-the-sand centrists to confront the consequences of failure. If their countries descend into strife, they will lose power. If they lose power, the European Union will choke, as the rest of the world races ahead. If bond markets seize up, financial contagion could spread. If EU countries indulge Vladimir Putin of Russia, he will only become more aggressive. Dangerfield was writing about a time when most people were ignorant of the catastrophe that lay ahead. Today’s liberals have no such excuse.