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彭博社

墨西哥通胀率上升,央行考虑下一次利率调整Mexico Inflation Ticks Up as Banxico Weighs Next Rate Move

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墨西哥城一个假日街头市场上的购物者。摄影师:斯蒂芬妮娅·科尔皮/彭博社Shoppers at a holiday street market in Mexico City. Photographer: Stephania Corpi/Bloomberg

墨西哥10月初的年度通胀率加速上升,超出预期,这给下个月召开会议的央行官员带来了压力,他们需要重新考虑是否继续维持五个月的利率冻结政策。

Mexico’s annual inflation accelerated more than expected in early October, putting pressure on central bankers meeting next month to reconsider a five-month hold on interest rates.

根据国家统计局周四发布的数据,10月前两周的消费者价格涨幅为3.62%,高于彭博社调查分析师预测的3.59%的中位数,也高于9月底公布的3.49%。

By Alex Vasquez Consumer price increases sped up 3.62% in the first two weeks of October compared with the same period the year before, the national statistics institute reported Thursday. The reading came in above the 3.59% median estimate of analysts surveyed by Bloomberg, and up from the 3.49% print in late September.

剔除波动较大的食品和燃料价格后的核心通胀率也从去年的3.71%上升至3.78%,高于分析师预测的3.70%的中位数。墨西哥央行将通胀目标设定在3%上下浮动一个百分点。

Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and fuel prices, also accelerated to 3.78% from a year ago, above the 3.70% median estimate from analysts and up from the 3.71% print in late September. The central bank targets 3% inflation, plus or minus one percentage point.

上个月,央行在连续第三次会议上维持基准利率在6.5%不变,同时评估通胀放缓趋势是否能够持续。

Last month, the central bank kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 6.5% for the third straight meeting as it evaluates whether a recent slowdown in inflation will continue.

政策制定者放弃了之前可能继续维持低利率的预期,转而采取更加以数据为导向的决策方式。

Policymakers dropped previous guidance suggesting they’d likely keep borrowing costs on hold going forward, instead shifting toward a more data-driven stance.

自6月以来一直保持利率不变的央行将于11月5日举行下一次利率决策会议。

The bank, which has kept the rate unchanged since June, will hold its next rate setting meeting on Nov. 5.

央行在9月的会议纪要中表示,贸易不确定性和中东战争的升级是导致消费者价格上涨的主要因素。

The bank known as Banxico said in the minutes of its September decision that trade uncertainty and the escalation of war in the Middle East are the main drivers of consumer price increases.

尽管风险偏好偏向上行,央行仍预计通胀将在2027年最后一个季度回到目标水平。

Despite seeing the balance of risks tilted to the upside, the bank still forecasts that inflation will converge back to its target in the last quarter of 2027.

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