一场完美风暴正在粮食价格上方聚集。这是标普全球在一份新报告中的结论。报告认为，有三个因素在同时起作用：柴油价格飙升——柴油在农业中无处不在；化肥原料供应萎缩；以及厄尔尼诺现象，这一周期性气候模式会在各地造成天气灾害。
A perfect storm is gathering over food prices. So concludes a new report from S&P Global. It sees a confluence of three factors at work: the soaring price of diesel, ubiquitous in agriculture; a shrunken supply of fertilizer inputs; and El Niño, the periodic climate pattern that wreaks havoc with weather everywhere.
报告指出，霍尔木兹海峡的关闭暴露出波斯湾“在化肥及其生产原料方面的重大作用”。“该海峡……不仅运输石油和（液化天然气），还运输维持作物生产所需的大量尿素、氨和硫磺。”氨的价格已因替代供应而回落，但硫磺仍存在瓶颈，9月价格较1月上涨约70%。
The closure of the Strait of Hormuz revealed the Persian Gulf’s “major role in fertilizer and the inputs that go into fertilizer,” the report notes. “The strait…carries not only oil and [liquefied natural gas] but also substantial volumes of urea, ammonia and sulfur needed to sustain crop production.”Ammonia prices have been brought down by alternative supplies, but sulfur remains bottlenecked, with the price up around 70% in September from January.
农民往往会因价格上涨而减少化肥使用量，这会降低未来的作物产量，或减少种植面积。标普指出，近期欧洲的玉米、巴西的大豆和澳大利亚的小麦种植面积均有所下降。
Farmers tend to reduce fertilizer usage in response to higher prices, which reduces future crop yields, or reduces acreage. S&P notes recent declines in acreage planted in Europe for corn, Brazil for soybeans and Australia for wheat.
与此同时，由于伊朗战争，来自中东的柴油出口大幅下降；由于乌克兰的无人机袭击，来自俄罗斯的柴油出口也大幅下降。柴油为农业机械、灌溉以及作物运输提供动力。
Meanwhile, exports of diesel, which powers farm machinery and irrigation and transport for crops, are down sharply from the Middle East because of the Iran war and from Russia because of Ukrainian drone attacks.
然后是厄尔尼诺现象，它正发展成为人们记忆中最强的一次。预计它会给一些地区带来暴雨和洪水，给另一些地区带来干旱和高温。在2014-15年强厄尔尼诺之后，全球食品价格上涨了约10%。这一次，标普担心，因化肥使用减少而变得脆弱的作物将更难耐受高温。
Then there is El Niño, which is shaping up to be the strongest in living memory. It is predicted to bring heavy rain and flooding to some regions, drought and heat to others. Global food prices rose about 10% after the strong El Niño of 2014-15. This time, S&P worries that crops weakened by reduced fertilizer use will be less able to tolerate elevated heat.
今年，农业期货价格因预期到这些因素的影响而大幅上涨，不过在过去一个月里价格有所回落。在那些食品支出占家庭预算较大比例的贫困国家，人们将受到最严重的影响。不过，这些价格变动究竟会如何传导到美国消费者的物价中，目前尚不清楚。2022年俄罗斯全面入侵乌克兰后，小麦出口受到中断，导致小麦价格飙升；但由于当时整体通胀水平较高，这种影响在美国并未明显体现出来。2023-2024年的强厄尔尼诺现象也没有引发严重的食品价格通胀。
Agriculture futures had risen sharply this year in anticipation of many of these effects, though they retreated a bit over the past month. Poorer countries, where food is a big part of family budgets, will feel it most. Just how it flows through to U.S. consumer prices is unclear. Wheat prices rose sharply after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022 interrupted exports, but the effect in the U.S. was lost amid broader inflation. A strong El Niño in 2023-24 didn’t generate much food inflation.
这种影响可能是微妙且缓慢发生的。标准普尔全球公司（S&P Global）的副主席丹尼尔·耶金（Daniel Yergin）长期关注能源市场，他表示：“能源危机的影响会立即显现出来”，而“食品危机则会随着季节的变化而逐渐显现”。这是《华尔街日报经济学》（WSJ Economics）新闻通讯的内容，旨在帮助读者了解经济学、市场与政治之间的相互关系。如果您尚未订阅，请在此处注册。
The effect could be subtle and slow-moving. Daniel Yergin, vice chairman of S&P Global and a longtime chronicler of oil, said an energy crisis “registers instantaneously on the screen” while a food crisis “will unfold with the cycle of the seasons.”This is an edition of the WSJ Economics newsletter, your guide to the intersection of economics, markets and politics. If you’re not subscribed, sign up here.
那些高中辍学的学生，在日后试图完成学业时往往会遇到很多困难；因此，哪怕是一点支持也能对他们产生很大帮助。印第安纳大学的阿尔贝托·奥尔特加（Alberto Ortega）及其两位合著者进行的一项新研究发现：一些正在努力获取高中毕业证书的成年人被随机分配收到来自辅导老师的鼓励性短信；那些收到短信的学生，其毕业率提高了9.3个百分点。
Students who dropped out of high school often struggle if they try to complete their diploma later in life. A bit of support goes a long way. In a new study by Alberto Ortega of Indiana University and two co-authors, some adults working toward their high-school diploma were randomly assigned to get supportive text messages from coaches. For students who got texts from coaches because of the study, graduation improved by 9.3 percentage points.
经济学家们感到担忧：周三，圣路易斯联邦储备银行（St. Louis Fed）的FRED数据仓库（该网站被所有经济学家列为必看资源）大部分时间都处于无法访问的状态。该银行的一位发言人表示，网站暂时下线是为了进行“预防性维护”。正是读者的订阅支持，使得我们的新闻工作得以持续进行。《华尔街日报经济学》的读者可以享受特别优惠的订阅价格；如果您已经是我们的订阅用户，再次感谢您的支持！
The econ nerds panic: A website on every economist’s list of bookmarks, the St. Louis Fed’s FRED repository of data, was down for much of the day on Wednesday. A spokesman for the reserve bank said that the website was taken offline “while we implement proactive maintenance.”Subscriptions make our journalism possible. WSJ Economics readers can enjoy a special rate on a new subscription. If you’re already a WSJ subscriber, thank you for your support.
周四 周五 我是《华尔街日报》的首席经济评论员。40多年来，我一直撰写有关经济、市场和政治的文章，报道范围涵盖美国及世界各地。
Thursday Friday I’m The Wall Street Journal’s chief economics commentator. I’ve been writing about economics, markets and politics for more than 40 years, in the U.S. and from around the world.
《华尔街日报》经济版每周两次为您带来重要见解、新闻和评论。请将您的反馈发送至 wsjeconomics@wsj.com（如果您是在收件箱中阅读此内容，直接回复即可）。马特·格罗斯曼对本简报亦有贡献。
WSJ Economics brings you essential insights, news and commentary, twice weekly. Send your feedback to wsjeconomics@wsj.com (if you’re reading this in your inbox, you can just hit reply). Matt Grossman contributed to this newsletter.