SpaceX让旗下最受欢迎的火箭退役的计划，可能危及美国发射军用卫星的能力——而五角大楼对埃隆·马斯克公司的依赖使这一困境更加复杂。SpaceX目前在火箭行业占据绝对主导地位，对军方不可或缺，令竞争对手相形见绌，占2025年美国发射总量的85%。该公司正在逐步淘汰猎鹰9号火箭，为星舰让路。星舰是SpaceX所称的一款体型庞大的新型运载工具，将更高效、更有利可图，但许多军用卫星并非按照适配它来设计的。
SpaceX's plans to retire its most popular rocket could jeopardize the United States' ability to launch military satellites — a plight compounded by the Pentagon's dependence on Elon Musk's company. SpaceX is by far the dominant player in the rocket business and indispensable to the military, dwarfing competitors and accounting for 85% of US launches in 2025. The company is phasing out its Falcon 9 rocket to make way for Starship, a massive new vehicle that SpaceX says will be more efficient and profitable, but which many military satellites aren't designed to fit.
这一局面使太空军面临发射运力紧张，可能影响军方将先进卫星送入轨道的能力——以及能否按时送入。五角大楼几乎没有其他选择来运送其设备，而SpaceX的竞争对手可能还需要数年时间才能提供同等水平的服务，据POLITICO报道。《商业内幕》与POLITICO同属阿克塞尔·施普林格全球记者网络。一位前太空军官员说：“所有人都有问题，所以太空军对发射有点慌了。”
The situation leaves the Space Force in a launch crunch that could affect the military's ability to put its advanced satellites in orbit — and on time. The Pentagon has few alternatives to ferry its equipment, and SpaceX's competitors are likely years away from being able to offer comparable services, reports POLITICO, which — like Business Insider — is part of the Axel Springer Global Reporters Network. "Everybody's having problems, so the Space Force is freaking out a little bit about launch," one former Space Force official, who, like others, was granted anonymity to discuss the sensitive issue.
与其他官员一样，此人获准匿名讨论这一敏感问题。这也凸显了马斯克公司业务版图的规模，以及其商业决策可能影响包括美国在内各国安全的方式。从乌克兰战场——基辅依赖他的星链卫星互联网服务——到尖端人工智能，再到SpaceX对通往轨道之路的扼制，这位世界首位万亿富翁直接掌控着将塑造未来的技术。据两位了解相关任务的人士称，太空军最近试图为未来的三次卫星任务预订发射，但SpaceX拒绝提供服务。
It also highlights the scale of Musk's company's footprint and the way its business decisions can affect the security of countries including the United States. From the battlefield in Ukraine, where Kyiv is dependent on his Starlink satellite internet service, to cutting-edge artificial intelligence and SpaceX's stranglehold over the pathways to orbit, the world's first trillionaire has a direct hand in the technology that will shape the future. The Space Force recently tried to book rides for three future satellite missions, but SpaceX declined to offer its services, according to two people familiar with the missions.
这些人士说，也没有其他火箭公司提出承接这些任务。太空军一位高级官员淡化了寻找火箭发射军用卫星的问题。
No other rocket companies offered to take them either, the people said. A top official at the Space Force downplayed the problem about finding rockets to launch military satellites.
美国太空军太空进入领域代理项目采办主管埃里克·扎里布尼斯基准将表示：“我不会说有哪项任务是我担心无法飞行的；我想说的是，我们正在研究支持这些客户的正确方式。”但扎里布尼斯基承认，随着对火箭需求的增加，政府和航天工业都面临成长的阵痛。他说：“暂时来说，随着新供应商投入飞行，我们还有一些事情需要逐步解决。”
"I wouldn't say there [are] missions I'm worried about being able to fly; I would say we're working through the right way to support those customers," said Brig. Gen. Eric Zarybnisky, the Space Force's acting portfolio acquisition executive for space access. But Zarybnisky acknowledged growing pains for the government and space industry as demand for rockets increases. "Temporarily, there are some things we'll need to work through, again, as we get new providers flying," he said.
SpaceX未回应置评请求。那三项未能找到运载火箭的太空军任务是通过“国家安全太空发射计划”（NSSL）列出的——该计划是太空军为其卫星购买火箭发射服务的项目。据这些人士称，其中两项任务属于太空发展局。该局是太空军的一个分支，正在低地球轨道上建设一个由数百颗军用卫星组成的网络，以提供扩展的数据服务以及导弹预警和跟踪能力。
SpaceX did not respond to a request for comment. The three Space Force missions that didn't find a ride were listed through the National Security Space Launch initiative, or NSSL — the program the service uses to buy rocket launches for its satellites. Two of the missions were for the Space Development Agency, according to the people. The agency is a branch of the Space Force that's building a network of hundreds of military satellites in low-Earth orbit to provide expanded data services, and missile warning and tracking capabilities.
关于第三项太空军任务的细节，以及太空军希望发射这些任务的具体日期，目前尚不清楚。太空军为其发射采购建立了一套双轨制度，一条轨道用于要求较低的任务，另一条用于更具挑战性的任务。原本的希望是，像火箭实验室、斯托克太空公司和相对论公司这样的新竞争者，能够更容易地赢得风险较低任务的合同。
Details about the third Space Force mission or the precise date for when the Space Force hoped to launch the missions are unclear. The Space Force has set up a two-lane system for buying its launches, one for less demanding efforts and another for more challenging missions. The hope was that new competitors, such as Rocket Lab, Stoke Space and Relativity, would have an easier time winning contracts for the lower-risk missions.
但SpaceX凭借其猎鹰火箭在两条轨道上都占据了主导地位，其他供应商的扩张速度一直缓慢。太空军希望使用SpaceX竞争对手的两款大型火箭将关键军用卫星送入轨道：联合发射联盟的“火神”和蓝色起源的“新格伦”。但“火神”火箭一直难以稳定发射，今年早些时候因固体火箭助推器出现问题而停飞。
But SpaceX has dominated both lanes with its Falcon rocket, and other providers have been slow to scale up. The Space Force hopes to use two large rockets from SpaceX competitors to ferry key military satellites into orbit: United Launch Alliance's Vulcan and Blue Origin's New Glenn. But the Vulcan rocket has struggled to launch consistently and was grounded earlier this year after problems with its solid rocket boosters.
太空军官员对联合发射联盟（ULA）的延误感到不满，已将原定由“火神”火箭执行的任务转交给SpaceX的“猎鹰”火箭。与此同时，蓝色起源公司的“新格伦”项目在5月遭遇毁灭性挫折——一枚火箭在佛罗里达州该公司唯一的发射台上爆炸，这很可能导致该火箭停飞至明年。太空军表示，愿意最终使用SpaceX的“星舰”。但要克服工程方面的挑战，因为“星舰”是为“扁平堆叠”式卫星（如星链）设计的，而大多数军用卫星是为更大的货舱设计的。
Space Force officials have been frustrated by ULA's delays and have moved missions slated for a Vulcan to a SpaceX Falcon. Meanwhile, Blue Origin's New Glenn program had a devastating setback in May when a rocket exploded on the company's only launchpad in Florida — putting the rocket out of commission likely until next year. The Space Force has said it's open to eventually using SpaceX's Starship. But there are engineering challenges to overcome because Starship is designed for "flat stack" satellites such as Starlink, while most military satellites are designed for a larger cargo bay.
而且，鉴于SpaceX计划用“星舰”建设轨道数据中心及推进公司其他优先事项，目前尚不清楚SpaceX何时有能力满足五角大楼的需求。其他较新的公司可能有一些解决方案。斯托克太空公司、相对论公司和火箭实验室都在研发有助于满足军方需求的中型运载火箭。但这些公司的新飞行器均未成功进行过试飞，这意味着它们可能需要数年时间才能开始可靠、频繁地发射。
And it's unclear when SpaceX will have the capacity to meet the Pentagon's needs, given its plans to use Starship to build out orbital data-centers and other company priorities. Other newer companies may have some solutions. Stoke Space, Relativity and Rocket Lab are all working on medium-lift rockets that could help meet the military's needs. But none of those companies has flown successful test flights of their new vehicles, meaning it could take years for them to start launching reliably and frequently.
扎里布尼斯基仍持乐观态度，认为蓝色起源和联合发射联盟将解决各自的技术问题，新的竞争者也将及时投入运营。他说：“我们很高兴看到这些新供应商加入进来，并能够支持我们所需的国家安全发射任务。”感受到压力的不仅是五角大楼。让“猎鹰9号”火箭退役并专注于“星舰”的举动已使整个航天行业陷入恐慌——尤其是商业卫星制造商。
Zarybnisky remained optimistic that Blue Origin and ULA will work through their technical problems and that new competitors will get up and running in time. "We're excited to see where those new providers come on board and are able to support the national security base launches that we need," he said. It's not just the Pentagon feeling the pinch. The move to decommission the Falcon 9 rocket and focus on Starship has sent the entire space industry into panic — especially commercial satellite builders.
其中一些公司已无法获得2028年之后的“猎鹰9号”发射机会。太空军未透露其最后一次“猎鹰”任务的具体日期，但扎里布尼斯基表示，该军种正在“积极与SpaceX沟通，了解航天器项目的进展，以及它们处于建造和测试周期的哪个阶段”。
Some of those firms have been unable to secure Falcon 9 flights after 2028. The Space Force didn't disclose a set date for when it will fly its last Falcon mission, but Zarybnisky said the service is "actively talking to SpaceX and understanding where the spacecraft programs are, where they are in their build and test cycle.
“真正的结束日期将由我们已签订发射服务合同的航天器客户决定。”目前尚不清楚太空军完成这批任务后会发生什么。一位行业代表警告说，随着整个航天行业对火箭的需求增加，太空军尚未准备好应对即将到来的危机。新的火箭公司必须证明其具备成功飞行的能力，才能参与太空军发射项目的竞标，这是为了防止“画饼”公司赢得政府合同的部分举措。
The end date will really be driven by the spacecraft customers that we have launch service contracts for already." It's unclear what happens after the Space Force runs through that batch of missions. An industry representative warned that the service is unprepared to deal with the crisis coming its way as demand for rockets increases across the space industry. New rocket companies can't bid on a Space Force launch until they've demonstrated the ability to successfully fly, part of an effort to keep vaporware companies from winning government business.
但商业卫星公司不受同样的限制，它们一直在抢购甚至尚未飞行过的火箭的早期发射名额。这给太空军寻找未来发射机会带来了更大压力。这位代表说，发射紧张“可能需要太空军发挥创造力，想办法在为时已晚之前开始购买运力”。另一位熟悉此事的人士说，太空军官员需要与国会合作，“从根本上重新思考”军方获取发射服务的方式。
But commercial satellite companies are not restricted in the same way and have been buying up early launches on rockets that haven't even flown yet. This puts more pressure on the Space Force to find future launches. The launch crunch "probably requires the Space Force to get creative and figure out a way to start buying capacity now before it's too late," the representative said. Another person familiar with the issue said that Space Force officials need to work with Congress to "fundamentally rethink" how the military acquires launch.
该人士说：“应该允许太空军一次预留多次发射，时间远远延伸到本世纪30年代，针对的是尚未飞行的火箭。是的，这承担了更多风险……（但）如果它等待新火箭证明自己，可能会发现它们已经被抢购一空。”本文最初发表于POLITICO，由阿克塞尔·施普林格全球记者网络提供，该网络利用公司各新闻编辑部的资源，发布有雄心的独家报道、调查、访谈、评论文章和分析。
"The Space Force needs to be allowed to reserve multiple launches at a time, much further out into the 2030s, for vehicles that have yet to fly," the person said. "Yes, it's taking on more risk … [but] if it waits for new rockets to prove themselves, it may find they're already sold out." This story originally appeared on POLITICO and is courtesy of the Axel Springer Global Reporters Network, which harnesses the resources of the company's newsrooms to publish ambitious scoops, investigations, interviews, opinion pieces, and analysis.
它允许包括POLITICO、Business Insider、WELT、BILD、Onet和Fakt在内的记者合作，为跨平台数亿国际受众制作重大报道。
It allows journalists — including those from POLITICO, Business Insider, WELT, BILD, Onet, and Fakt — to collaborate on major stories for an international audience of hundreds of millions across platforms.