
的确,最近的骚乱暴露了法国经济和社会的深层问题。这或许增加了极右翼政党‘国民联盟’的玛丽娜·勒庞在明年春天总统选举中获胜的可能性。但之后呢?随着街头暴力的平息,人们不禁会思考接下来会发生什么。
Yes, recent rioting has exposed economic and social rot at the heart of France. And yes, this probably improves the already strong odds that Marine Le Pen of the insurgent-right National Rally will win next spring’s presidential election. And then? As the violence in the streets calms, thoughts inevitably turn to what will come next.
我倾向于相信一个相对乐观的情况,那就是‘斯坦因定律’的体现:‘如果某件事不能永远持续下去,它终将停止。’
The relatively optimistic case, which I would like to believe, is an application of Stein’s Law: “If something cannot go on forever, it will stop.”
法国低增长、高税收的经济状况,以及高移民率、低融合度的社会政策显然无法永远持续下去。因此……
France’s low-growth, high-tax economy and high-immigration, low-assimilation social policies obviously can’t go on forever. Ergo . . .