英国天然气和电力系统运营商周五表示，尽管中东冲突推高能源价格，英国今冬应有足够的天然气和电力来满足峰值需求。
Britain should have enough gas and electricity to meet peak demand this winter despite higher energy prices driven by conflict in the Middle East, the country's gas and power system operators said on Friday.
运营英国天然气和电力网络的国家天然气公司和国家能源系统运营商（NESO）发布了年度冬季展望，当时能源价格仍处于高位。自伊朗战争爆发以来，英国天然气和电力的次月合约价格分别上涨了约180%和120%，并传导至消费者账单。
National Gas and the National Energy System Operator (NESO), which run Britain's gas and electricity networks, published their annual winter outlooks as energy prices remain elevated. UK front-month gas and power prices have risen about 180% and 120%, respectively, since the start of the Iran war, feeding through to consumer bills.
燃气电厂通常决定电价，因此天然气价格上涨往往会推高电力成本。
Gas-fired power plants typically set electricity prices, and so higher gas prices tend to push up power costs.
国家天然气公司预测，今冬天然气峰值需求将达到每天4.93亿立方米，比去年高2%，主要是由于发电站需求增强。总体天然气需求预计将下降1%。
National Gas forecasts peak gas demand of 493 million cubic metres per day this winter, 2% higher than last year, largely due to stronger demand from power stations. Overall gas demand is expected to fall 1%.
天然气峰值供应能力估计为每天5.92亿立方米，留有每天9900万立方米的缓冲。如果输气系统最大的单一部分发生故障，这一余量将降至每天1800万立方米，国家天然气公司称这种情形极不可能发生。
Peak gas supply capacity is estimated at 592 mcm/day, leaving a buffer of 99 mcm/day. That margin would fall to 18 mcm/day if the largest single part of the transmission system failed, a scenario National Gas said was highly unlikely.
该运营商表示，周四获批的一项协议将维持通过比利时互联互通管道的进口能力，改善了其展望，尽管欧洲天然气储存水平低于正常，可能会限制进口。全球液化天然气（LNG）市场的中断也仍可能影响供应。
The operator said a deal approved on Thursday to maintain import capacity through the Interconnector pipeline from Belgium had improved its outlook, although Europe's lower-than-normal gas storage levels are likely to restrain imports. Disruptions in the global liquefied natural gas (LNG) market could also still affect supplies.
国家天然气公司能源系统与韧性总监格伦·布林-雅各布森表示：“我们的分析显示，预计大不列颠在2026/27年冬季将拥有足够的天然气供应能力来满足需求，即使在一系列极不可能发生的高压力情形下也是如此。”
"Our analysis shows that Great Britain is expected to have sufficient gas supply capability to meet demand throughout winter 2026/27, even under a range of very unlikely high-stress scenarios," said Glenn Bryn-Jacobsen, National Gas' director of energy systems and resilience.
在电力方面，NESO预计在典型寒潮期间，峰值需求之上将有5.9吉瓦的备用容量，相当于峰值需求的9.5%。这一余量大体与近几个冬季持平，且比2022年能源危机期间更宽裕。
On the power side, NESO expects spare capacity of 5.9 gigawatts above peak demand during a typical cold spell, equivalent to 9.5% of peak demand. The margin is broadly in line with recent winters and wider than during the 2022 energy crisis.
英国国家能源系统运营商（NESO）表示，更高的峰值需求主要已被额外的电池储能、燃气发电和风力发电所抵消。由于现在预计峰值时段将有更多风力发电可用，因此备用容量也高于其6月份的估计。
Higher peak demand has largely been offset by additional battery storage, gas-fired generation and wind power, NESO said. The margin is also higher than its June estimate because it now expects more wind generation to be available during peak periods.
NESO表示，12月和1月的某些日子可能会比较紧张，需要使用常规平衡工具，如电力余量通知。它强调，此类通知表明需要额外发电，并不意味着电力供应面临风险。
NESO said some days in December and January could be tight and require routine balancing tools such as electricity margin notices. It stressed that such notices signal a need for additional generation and do not indicate a risk to electricity supplies.