It’s been a challenging week for Vivek Ramaswamy. For the last two years, the 41-year-old billionaire-turned-politician has crisscrossed the state of Ohio in his bid to become the state’s first-ever Indian-American governor. Armed with an endorsement from President Donald Trump and a sizable war chest financed by his own private fortune, Ramaswamy easily brushed off his competitors to become the Republican Party’s candidate for governor in a state that has voted in a Republican governor for the last 16 years. But with just 11 days remaining before election day on November 3, things are looking uncertain for him.A controversial attack ad on his political opponent, Democratic Party candidate Dr Amy Acton, has backfired sharply this week, with even members of his own party chiding Ramaswamy for his tactics.

Meanwhile, a new poll released by Marist on Tuesday signalled fresh trouble for his candidacy, with the Republican trailing his opponent by a 50-43 margin.

Weighed down by the broader unpopularity of President Trump amid rising prices and an unpopular war in Iran, the Republican Party is expected to face losses across the country come November 3. Ramaswamy, then, is spending the last stretches of his campaign fighting to defy political gravity.

The 2023 Presidential campaign and Team Trump stintAfter making his fortune running a biotechnology company, Ramaswamy became an overnight political sensation in 2023 as a dark horse candidate for the Republican presidential nomination. His standout debate performances and slick social media presence drew outsized media attention as he rose in the polls, rivalling heavyweights like Florida Governor Ron DeSantis and former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley.

But Donald Trump’s overwhelming advantage among the party faithful meant the outcome was never seriously in doubt.

After finishing fourth in the primary’s opening contest, Ramaswamy swiftly withdrew and endorsed Trump, later becoming a prominent surrogate for his campaign against Vice President Kamala Harris. After winning the Presidency in November 2024, Trump rewarded him with a short-lived role as co-leader of the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) alongside fellow billionaire and Trump ally Elon Musk. Ramaswamy’s tenure was clouded by a December 2024 social media post on H-1B visas, in which he argued tech firms hired foreign-born engineers because American culture had “venerated mediocrity over excellence”.

The post drew severe backlash from the Make America Great Again (MAGA) movement, with many targeting his Indian heritage. He left DOGE on Trump’s first day in office and soon launched his campaign for Ohio governor.

The scepticismScepticism about Ramaswamy’s chances of victory has grown and boils down to three things: an unfavourable national environment for Republicans, his personal baggage as a candidate and questions about his identity.“A year ago, the Republicans were looking different. They weren't looking in such a bad place. But now they have tariffs, the economy dragging, high prices, affordability concerns and the war in Iran. All of this stuff starts to pile up. It's making it really hard for Republicans to run on anything and stay loyal to a president that they feel like they should stay loyal to,” said Daniel Birdsong, a senior lecturer at the University of Dayton in Ohio, on the tough environment facing Ramaswamy.

President Trump’s approval rating has plummeted to around 36% in recent days, according to two national polls, with his Republican party suffering a similar downturn in public opinion.

Polling firm Gallup estimated that 44% of Americans believe the Democrats would better handle the issues they consider most important, with just 33% believing the same of Republicans.“The Democratic Party's current 11-point lead marks a reversal from the previous several years. The Republican Party led by 11 points in 2022, eight points in 2023 and five points in 2024 — all during the Biden administration — before the parties were essentially tied last year,” Gallup observed in its analysis.

With the state of the economy set to dominate the election, Republicans may have even more to worry about. The party’s perceived skill at managing the economy has been a formidable electoral asset in the past. Just three years ago, Gallup polls found Republicans enjoyed a 14-point advantage over the Democrats in public confidence on delivering economic prosperity. But the war in Iran and persistent inflation have damaged the party's brand, allowing the Democrats to seize a commanding 14-point lead in public confidence on the economy ahead of election day.

Ramaswamy’s personal popularity has also flagged. A survey of likely Ohio voters released by Bowling Green State University finds that negative views of Ramaswamy outweigh positive views by 10 points compared to 1 point for his Democratic opponent Amy Acton. His fortune - valued by Forbes at roughly $2.3 billion - has been a focus of attack for Acton, who has sought to portray him as an out-of-touch billionaire at a time of considerable economic distress for ordinary voters.

The gaffesRamaswamy’s allegedly prolific use of private jets to criss-cross Ohio, which has cost his campaign roughly $700,000, hasn’t helped his case. His efforts to look relatable have occasionally stumbled. A visit to the baseball batting cages to show his love for America’s national pastime drew much online ridicule after netizens mocked Ramaswamy’s batting swing.

This was followed by another gaffe earlier this month when the gubernatorial candidate awkwardly tried and failed to pick up a 10-year-old child at a rally.

Just over a week before election day, Ramaswamy is also facing sharp criticism over a campaign ad featuring Donna Arthur, the estranged mother of his opponent Amy Acton. The ad drew much condemnation - including from incumbent Republican Ohio Governor Mike DeWine - as Arthur lost custody of her children after her then-husband, Acton’s stepfather, was charged with raping Acton, who was 12 at the time. Anti-Indian sentimentEven as he battles his Democratic opponent, Ramaswamy has also had to contend with trenchant opposition from the far right of the Republican Party, which has turned anti-Indian sentiment into a potent political tool over the last two years.

His Republican primary challenger Casey Putsch questioned whether Ramaswamy, a practising Hindu, could lead a “Christian state” and referred to his opponent as an “Indian boy” pretending to be an American. Putsch ended up with 18% of the vote in the Republican primary. Ramaswamy has also done battle with far-right influencers like Nick Fuentes, challenging their racially-charged view that “Heritage Americans” - those with roots in the country going back centuries - have a greater claim on the country than more recent immigrants.

Opinions are divided as to whether Ramaswamy’s Indian heritage and religion will hurt his chances of winning office on November 3.“Are there going to be some people who have that as a lens that they look through? Sure, there's 11 million people in the state of Ohio. Of course, there's going to be a few folks like that. But there's also a few folks who won't vote for Acton because she's a woman. So just like we've never had an Indian American governor, we've never had an elected female governor. At the end of the day, it's going to be about who people feel has the vision to lead Ohio,” says Mike Hartley, president of Swing State Strategies, a political consulting firm.

Others disagree with Hartley’s assessment. Former Ohio Governor Ted Strickland, a Democrat, told NBC News in September that Ramaswamy’s religion and ethnicity did weaken his candidacy.“One is his religion. One is his ethnicity,” said Strickland when asked why he believed Ramaswamy was a weak candidate.

Despite headwinds facing his campaign, Ramaswamy will also be helped along by a few key factors. First, Ohio has moved from one of America’s most hotly contested swing states to one that leans towards the Republican Party over the past decades. In the 2024 presidential election, President Trump won the state by a decisive 11-point margin. That gives the Republican candidate for governor an advantage in a state that has not elected a Democrat to the office since 2006.“When looking at voting patterns over the last 30 years or so, there tends to be essentially a partisan bias in favour of Republicans of about 5%,” assessed Daniel Birdsong of the University of Dayton.

Hartley, a veteran of Republican politics in the state, also argues that the Republicans have a solid advantage heading into election day.“Republicans have a decent amount of room to grow, and they don't have to match Democrat enthusiasm because there are more Republicans. Trump won Ohio by 11.5 points in the 2024 election. So there's a buffer there. The buffer is being tested, but at the end of the day, if the Republican Party and volunteers can turn out those low-propensity Republican voters as they did in 2018, then Vivek will win, in my opinion. It’s not easy. It's going to be an ugly win, but this is a bad political environment,” he said, adding that Republicans have consistently outperformed seemingly bad poll numbers in Ohio.

Other observers echo Hartley’s assessment that the contest for governor remains wide open despite unfavourable polling numbers for the Republicans,"Consistent with much of the public polling, we continue to find Democrats ahead in the state. While this will be welcome news to Democrats, a blue wave in Ohio is far from a sure thing. Republicans have closed well in recent statewide elections, and I would be surprised if these races did not end up within the margin of error in either direction,” said Robert Alexander, professor of political science at Bowling Green State University.

Hartley believes Ramaswamy’s focus needs to be on finishing off on a strong note and playing to his strengths.“Vivek’s job over the next few weeks is to go out there and engage the voters. He's already all over the state, and he's everywhere all the time and has been for two years, talking to voters. He's been out there engaging, even with people who disagree with him, which is a unique quality that he has and has demonstrated. But he's going to need to be on TV, and as he's out there talking to voters, he needs to give them the closing message of why they should vote for him. Every candidate needs to get the closing message right and give folks something positive to look ahead to and something to vote for,” he concluded.