专家称博尔索纳罗之子与卢拉的竞选形势已成“五五开”在里约热内卢维拉伊莎贝尔社区最近的一次圣经学习聚会上，会众诵读了一篇关于上帝与忠诚的祷告。
Race now a coin toss between Flávio Bolsonaro and Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, experts say During a recent Bible study service in the Río de Janeiro neighbourhood of Vila Isabel, the congregation recited a prayer about God and being faithful.
会众雷吉娜·达席尔瓦·安德拉德（Regina da Silva Andrade，38岁）表示，虽然她相信上帝掌管宇宙，但巴西民选官员有责任照顾国家公民。
Regina da Silva Andrade, 38, one of the congregants, said that while she believed God was in charge of the universe, Brazil's elected officials had a duty to care for the country's citizens.
“我们……期望国家领导层关心满足基本需求——如医疗和教育——并且至少这些领域能得到妥善照料，”她说。
"We have ... expectations that our country’s leadership would be concerned with meeting essential needs — such as health care and education —and that, at the very least, these areas would be properly cared for," she said.
对于投票给谁仍拿不定主意的安德拉德表示，她倾向于支持弗拉维奥·博尔索纳罗（Flávio Bolsonaro），这位45岁的参议员是前巴西总统雅伊尔·博尔索纳罗（Jair Bolsonaro）的儿子。雅伊尔·博尔索纳罗在2022年大选中败给路易斯·伊纳西奥·卢拉·达席尔瓦（Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva）后，因策划政变罪名成立被定罪。安德拉德认为，弗拉维奥·博尔索纳罗比其父亲是更好的候选人。
Still undecided about who to vote for, Andrade said she was leaning toward Flávio Bolsonaro, the 45 year-old senator son of Jair Bolsonaro, the former Brazilian president convicted of plotting a coup after he lost the 2022 election to Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. Andrade said Flávio Bolsonaro was a better candidate than his father. "Bolsonaro … may waver between one extreme and the other at times, but I see a genuine interest on his part in finding balance," she said.
“博尔索纳罗……有时可能在两个极端之间摇摆，但我看到他真诚地有意寻求平衡，”她说。
"I don't know if he'll succeed, but I'm not particularly concerned — his father engaged in corruption to the point of ending up in prison."
“我不知道他能否成功，但我并不特别担心——他的父亲贪腐到锒铛入狱的地步。”记者称总统大选“从未如此胶着”弗拉维奥·博尔索纳罗主张减税、严厉打击犯罪和维护家庭价值观，在10月4日巴西总统大选首轮投票中，以约220万票的优势领先现年80岁的现任总统卢拉。近期民调显示，两位候选人之间的差距正在缩小。
Presidential race 'never this close,' journalist says Flávio Bolsonaro — campaigning on tax cuts, a hard line on crime and family values — emerged from the first round of voting on Oct. 4 in Brazil's presidential election with about 2.2 million more votes than Lula, the 80-year-old incumbent. Recent polls have shown the race between the two candidates tightening. "It's really a toss of a coin," said Pedro Doria, editor of MEIO media group in Río de Janeiro.
“这真的是五五开，”里约热内卢MEIO媒体集团编辑佩德罗·多里亚（Pedro Doria）说。
Still, Doria said no presidential candidate who came in second after the first round of voting has ever won an election since 1989 — when the current electoral system was put in place.
尽管如此，多里亚表示，自1989年现行选举制度实施以来，从未有首轮投票排名第二的总统候选人最终赢得大选。
"But it was never this close.
“但这次选举的竞争从未如此激烈过。弗拉维奥（Flávio）与卢拉（Lula）之间的支持率差距仅为1.9个百分点——这几乎可以忽略不计。”多里亚（Doria）指出，巴西社会存在严重的两极分化现象，部分选民更倾向于投票反对某个候选人，而非支持他们真正信任的人。
Flávio's difference against Lula was 1.9 percentile points. This is basically nothing."
“卢拉的三分之一的选民实际上并不是在支持卢拉，而是在投票反对博索纳罗（Bolsonaro），”多里亚说。“弗拉维奥·博索纳罗（Flávio Bolsonaro）这位参议员的选民中，有一半的人也是在投票反对卢拉，而不是支持弗拉维奥本人。”圣保罗大学国际关系研究中心的研究员玛西莱娅·贡巴塔（Marsílea Gombata）表示，人们对腐败现象的失望以及个人经济状况的停滞不前，促使许多选民选择了博索纳罗。
Doria said that the Brazilian population is heavily polarized, and some voters are more motivated to vote against a candidate than in support of someone they believe in. "A third of Lula's voters are not voting for Lula, they are voting against Bolsonaro," said Doria. "Half of Senator Flávio Bolsonaro's voters are voting against Lula, not for Flávio."
贡巴塔还提到：博索纳罗过去曾与准军事组织有牵连——他在二十年前的一次演讲中曾对这些组织表示赞赏；此外，他的办公室曾雇佣过一名与杀害人权活动家有关的准军事组织创始人的妻子。
Marsílea Gombata, a researcher with the University of Sao Paulo's Centre for International Relations Research, said frustrations around corruption and feelings of personal financial stagnation have driven many voters to cast ballots for Bolsonaro. (Courtesy of Marsílea Gombata) Bolsonaro has in the past been tied to paramilitary groups — he praised them in a two decade-old speech while a state deputy, and his office once employed the mother and wife of the founder of a paramilitary group linked to the killing of a human rights activist.
贡巴塔指出，博索纳罗的父亲因参与政变阴谋（其中包括刺杀卢拉的阴谋）而被判有罪并服刑27年，但这并未对弗拉维奥·博索纳罗的支持率产生太大影响。
Bolsonaro's father's coup-plotting conviction — which included allegations there were plans to assassinate Lula — and subsequent 27-year sentence has had limited impact on Flávio Bolsonaro's support, said Gombata.
“显然，这些负面因素对选民来说并不重要。”贡巴塔指出，卢拉曾在2003年至2011年间担任总统，并在任期内加强了多项社会福利计划（如“家庭补助金”计划——该计划为贫困家庭提供有条件的现金援助），但仍有大量民众感到被忽视。许多属于中低收入阶层的人在零工经济中从事第二份工作，他们认为卢拉承诺的繁荣从未实现，因此感到被“背叛”。
"We can see that it doesn't matter to people." While Lula, who previously served two presidential terms between 2003 and 2011, strengthened and reintroduced social programs in his last term to help the poor such as Bolsa Familia, which provides conditional direct cash transfers to families, a large swath of the population has felt left out, said Gombata. The lower middle class, where many work a second job in the gig economy, has felt "betrayed" by Lula's promises of prosperity that, they believe, never materialized for them.
“他们原本希望为自己的孩子创造更好的生活，但这一切都没有发生，如今生活变得更加艰难了，”贡巴塔说。
"They were hoping for a better life, for their children, but it didn't happen and today life is more difficult," said Gombata.
她说，博索纳罗承诺削减燃料、电力和交通方面的税收，并减少政府开支，这对这部分人群具有吸引力。
Bolsonaro's promises of tax cuts for fuel, electricity and transport, as well as reductions in government spending appeals to this segment of the population, she said.
64岁的保罗·科埃略在里约热内卢经营卡瓦卡斯体育用品店，他说自己周日投票时看重的是经济议题，他的选票将投给博索纳罗。（道格拉斯·恩格尔/CBC）贡巴塔说，2014年的“洗车行动”调查仍投下长长的阴影，该调查牵涉了卢拉所在劳工党的多名高级官员以及卢拉本人——直到2021年最高法院推翻了他与腐败相关的定罪。
Paulo Coelho, who runs the Cavacas Sporting Goods store in Río de Janeiro, 64, said he’s voting on the economy Sunday and his ballot will go to Bolsonaro. (Douglas Engle/CBC) The 2014 Operation Carwash investigation, which ensnared several top officials in Lula's Workers Party and Lula himself — until the Supreme Court overturned his corruption-related conviction in 2021 — still casts a long shadow, Gombata said. "We are still living those consequences … the theme of corruption is a big one."
“我们仍在承受那些后果……腐败这一议题是个大问题。”两位候选人都面临腐败调查。博索纳罗在竞选期间因自身的腐败指控而受到侧面冲击。
Both candidates facing corruption probes Bolsonaro has been side-swiped during the election campaign by his own corruption allegations. It recently emerged that Bolsonaro requested and received millions of dollars for a documentary about Jair Bolosonaro from a key player in a major bank fraud case.
最近有消息曝出，博索纳罗从一起重大银行欺诈案的一名关键人物那里为一部长篇纪录片请求并获得了数百万美元。弗拉维奥也因与该案有关而受到调查。
Flávio is also under investigation in relation to the case. However, Lula has faced his own troubles.
然而，卢拉也有自己的麻烦。据路透社报道，他的儿子正在接受最高法院下令进行的另一项权钱交易和腐败调查。“每个人都担心巴西经济活动放缓，”他说。
His son is under a separate influence peddling and corruption probe ordered by the Supreme Court, Reuters reported. "Everyone is worried about slowing economic activity in Brazil," he said. "Flávio Bolsonaro has an economic plan and vision that I am more aligned with."
“弗拉维奥·博索纳罗有一套经济计划和愿景，我与之一致。”巴西大选中的美国因素。38岁的阿琳·维埃拉为女性开办了一个社区舞蹈项目，她说自己将投票给卢拉，因为她担心博索纳罗政府会切断使许多人免于苦难的社会保障网。
The Brazil election's U.S. factor Aline Vieria, 38, who runs a community dance program for women, said she's voting for Lula because she worries a Bolsonaro government will sever the social safety nets that have kept many people from misery. "I have three children, ages 15, 11 and five, and I don’t want to jeopardize their future," she said.
“我有三个孩子，分别是15岁、11岁和5岁，我不想危及他们的未来，”她说。
"There is a real risk to our population given the stances they've taken on social issues."
“鉴于他们在社会问题上的立场，我们的民众面临着真实的风险。”38岁的阿琳·维埃拉（Aline Vieira）经营着一个面向女性的社区舞蹈项目，她说自己将投票给卢拉，因为她担心博索纳罗政府会导致社会保障网的切断。（道格拉斯·恩格尔/加拿大广播公司）加拿大美洲委员会政策副总裁索朗热·马尔克斯（Solange Marquez）表示，周日的结果可能会影响巴西与美国的关系。
Aline Vieria, 38, who runs a community dance program for women, said she's voting for Lula because she worries that a Bolsonaro government will lead to a severing of social safety nets. (Douglas Engel/CBC) Solange Marquez, vice-president of policy with the Canadian Council for the Americas, says Sunday's results could impact Brazil's relationship with the United States. The close relationship between the Bolsonaro family — Flávio is one of three brothers — and the U.S. administration of Donald Trump could lead to an escalation of U.S. military involvement in South America through boots on the ground in Brazil in joint security operations against armed drug trafficking groups, said Marquez. "I think [Flávio] Bolsonaro is eager to open the door to Donald Trump in exchange for a better economic, commercial relationship with Washington."
马尔克斯说，博索纳罗家族（弗拉维奥是三兄弟之一）与美国唐纳德·特朗普政府之间的密切关系，可能会通过在巴西部署地面部队开展针对武装贩毒集团的联合安全行动，从而导致美国对南美洲军事介入的升级。
U.S. boots on Brazilian soil is something that worries retiree Carlos Vitor, 65, who voted twice for the elder Bolsonaro.
“我认为[弗拉维奥]·博索纳罗渴望向唐纳德·特朗普敞开大门，以此换取与华盛顿更好的经济和商业关系。”美国军队踏上巴西土地是让65岁的退休人员卡洛斯·维托尔（Carlos Vitor）感到担忧的事情，他曾两次把票投给老博索纳罗。这一次，他说自己将投票给卢拉。他说：“我担心美国可能会因为贩毒集团而入侵巴西。”
This time, he says, he's voting for Lula. "I’m afraid that the United States might invade Brazil because of the drug traffickers," he said. Vitor said a Flávio win will magnify the deep divisions that currently exist within the country and possibly lead to violence. "The left, they're going to fight.
维托尔表示，弗拉维奥的胜利将扩大目前国内存在的深重裂痕，并可能导致暴力。他说：“左翼，他们会抗争。如果弗拉维奥赢了，他们会抗争。”“这个地方会变成内战吗？肯定的。”戈登·德尔宁（Gordon Durnin）亦有贡献
If Flávio wins, they're going to fight," he said. "Will this place turn into a civil war? For sure." With files from Gordon Durnin