在一对深红州，民主党人正将他们的基督教信仰置于竞选的核心，以此测试宗教右翼的主导地位——这可能会为该党在类似艰难地形中竞争创造一个样板。
Democrats in a pair of deep-red states are testing the religious right's dominance by putting their Christian faith at the center of their campaigns — potentially creating a template for the party to compete in similarly forbidding terrain.
为何重要：得克萨斯州的詹姆斯·塔拉里科和堪萨斯州的亚当·汉密尔顿若能爆冷获胜，几乎可以确保民主党拿下参议院。
Why it matters: Upsets by Texas' James Talarico and Kansas' Adam Hamilton would all but ensure that Democrats take the Senate.
- 皮尤研究中心最近的一份民调既显示了契机也带来了障碍：白人福音派仍然坚定支持共和党，而许多其他基督教团体则倾向于民主党或分歧更小。
• A recent poll from Pew shows both an opening and an obstacle: White evangelicals still strongly favor Republicans, while many other Christian groups lean Democratic or are more narrowly split.
宏观背景：长老会神学院学生塔拉里科和联合卫理公会牧师汉密尔顿正在挑战保守派垄断信仰代言权的说法。此前，埃比尼泽浸信会教堂高级牧师、民主党人拉斐尔·沃诺克于2021年当选参议员。
The big picture: Talarico a Presbyterian seminary student, and Hamilton, a United Methodist pastor, are challenging conservatives' claim to speak for faith. Their bids come after Democrat Raphael Warnock, senior pastor of Ebenezer Baptist Church, was elected to the Senate in 2021.
- 总统特朗普在2024年的得克萨斯州和堪萨斯州均以两位数的优势获胜。两州在21世纪都未曾将民主党人送入参议院——堪萨斯州上一次这样做还是在1932年。今年这两场竞选都被认为是胜负难料。
• President Trump won both Texas and Kansas by double digits in 2024. Neither state has sent a Democrat to the Senate in the 21st century — the last time Kansas did was in 1932. Both races this year are considered toss-ups.
走近观察：休斯敦公共媒体节目《党派政治》的共同主持人布兰登·罗廷豪斯表示，塔拉里科的“宗教虔诚是一种软化其自由主义色彩的方式”，并有可能争取到那些对丑闻缠身的对手感到反感的基督徒。
Zoom in: Talarico's "religiosity is a way to soften his liberalism" and potentially win over Christians turned off by his scandal-plagued opponent says Brandon Rottinghaus, who co-hosts Houston Public Media's "Party Politics." • Talarico has also made several visits to Black Baptist churches.
- 塔拉里科还多次访问黑人浸信会教堂。特朗普在得克萨斯州的少数族裔社区取得了进展，塔拉里科在残酷的初选中击败同为黑人的众议员杰丝明·克罗克特（民主党-得克萨斯州）后，也希望复制这一做法。
Trump made inroads with minority communities in Texas, and Talarico looks to do the same after besting Rep. Jasmine Crockett (D-Texas), who is Black, in a brutal primary.
- 他在反对基督教民族主义和保护弱势群体的演讲中利用了《圣经》经文，并援引了“是时候开始掀翻桌子了”这一源自圣经的竞选口号。
• He's harnessed scripture in his pitch against Christian nationalism and for protecting the vulnerable, invoking the biblical campaign slogan, "It's time to start flipping tables."
- 罗廷豪斯补充说：“我们正处于一个民粹主义政治时期，社会福音的许多教义为他提供了一个将政治与信仰联系起来的机会。”
• "We're in a populist political moment, and many of the teachings of the social gospel give him an opportunity to link the politics and his faith together," Rottinghaus adds.
用数字说话：马里斯特9月份对1139名得克萨斯州注册选民进行的调查显示，在白人福音派基督徒中，帕克斯顿以75%对22%的优势领先于塔拉里科。
By the numbers: A September Marist survey of 1,139 Texas registered voters showed Paxton with a 75% to 22% lead over Talarico among white evangelical Christians.
在堪萨斯州，威奇托州立大学政治学系主任亚历山德拉·米德尔伍德表示，这场竞选的关键将不取决于汉密尔顿能否赢得大量宗教共和党人的支持，而在于他能否复制民主党籍州长劳拉·凯利的联盟。
In Kansas, the race will hinge less on whether Hamilton can win large numbers of religious Republicans and more on whether he can replicate Democratic Gov. Laura Kelly's coalition, says Alexandra Middlewood, the political science department chair at Wichita State University.
- 汉密尔顿将自己塑造成一个桥梁建造者，这得益于他领导全国最大联合卫理公会教堂的经验。
• Hamilton has presented himself as a bridge-builder, drawing on his experience leading the largest United Methodist church in the nation.
- 米德尔伍德说，他广为人知的宗教背景可能会吸引那些参与度较低、较为温和的基督徒和中右翼选民。
• His well-known religious background could appeal to less engaged, moderate Christians and center-right voters, Middlewood says. Yes, but:
然而：沃什伯恩大学政治学系主任鲍勃·比蒂指出，尽管堪萨斯州选出了蓝色州长，并投票赞成保持该州堕胎合法化，但共和党拥有巨大的选民登记优势，这使得民主党赢得参议院席位“几乎不可能”。
While Kansas has elected blue governors and voted to keep abortion legal in the state, Republicans have a massive registration advantage that's made a Democratic Senate win "near impossible," notes Bob Beatty, Washburn University's political science chair.
- 他说，建制派民主党人长期以来一直遭到怀疑，尤其是在堪萨斯州西部。
• Establishment Democrats have long been viewed with suspicion, especially in western Kansas, he said.
- 但汉密尔顿作为一名牧师，“为他提供了一个公开的途径去接触堪萨斯州西部那些我认为以往民主党人无法接触的选民”。
• But Hamilton being a pastor "gives him an open doorway to approach those voters in western Kansas that I would argue previous Democrats have not had."
包括沃诺克在内，黑人神职人员有着参政的历史。但白人神职人员正以相当大的数量站出来作为民主党人参选。
Black clergy — including Warnock — have a history of political action. But white clergy are stepping up to run as Democrats in substantial numbers.
- 在艾奥瓦州，路德宗牧师莎拉·特罗恩·加里奥特和长老会牧师林赛·詹姆斯正在激烈的众议院竞选中角逐。
• In Iowa, Sarah Trone Garriott, a Lutheran minister, and Lindsay James, a Presbyterian pastor, are running in tight House races. Pastor Doug Pagitt,
牧师道格·帕吉特，进步基督教团体“投票追求共同利益”的执行主任表示，宗教左翼的激增是由候选人的个人信念以及像他这样的团体多年来培训政客如何与信仰选民建立联系的努力所驱动的。
executive director of progressive Christian group Vote Common Good, says the religious left's surge is driven by candidates' personal convictions and years-long efforts from groups like his that have trained politicians on how to connect with faith voters.
- 但帕吉特称，多次冒犯基督徒的特朗普也是一个推动因素：“对于民主党人现在接触宗教人士来说，没有哪个人比唐纳德·特朗普更有帮助。他是最伟大的招募工具。”特朗普一再无视宗教右翼不会投票给他的预测。
• But Trump, who Pagitt says has repeatedly offended Christians, is also a motivator: "There is no single person who could be more helpful to Democrats reaching out to religious people right now than Donald Trump. He is the greatest recruiting tool." Trump has repeatedly defied predictions that the religious right wouldn't vote for him.
另一方：保守派组织“信仰与自由联盟”主席拉尔夫·里德对《国会山报》表示，他怀疑民主党向宗教靠拢的努力能否吸引有信仰的选民。
The other side: Ralph Reed, chair of the conservative Faith and Freedom Coalition, tells Axios he's doubtful the Democrats' effort to lean into religion will attract voters of faith.
- 他说：“选民不会投票给一个自称坚守信仰却不认同他们价值观的候选人。”
• "Voters will not vote for a candidate who professes to hold to their faith, but doesn't share their values," he says.
- 一名共和党对手将作为民主党人参选的神职人员贴上了“PINO”（名义上的牧师）的标签。
• One GOP opponent labeled clergy running for office as Democrats "PINOs" — Pastors in Name Only. But while Reed
但尽管里德表示，他相信共和党人在特朗普的摇摆州闪击战后会出来投票，但他承认他们面临着经济困境。
says he's confident Republicans will turn out after Trump's battleground blitz, he acknowledges their economic struggles.
- 他说：“福音派和其他保守派信仰选民也生活在现实世界中。”
• "Evangelicals and other conservative voters of faith, they live in the real world too," he says.
约翰·C·丹福尔特宗教与政治中心的小瑞安·伯杰说，福音派是否有动力露面将是中期选举的一大新闻。
Whether evangelicals are motivated to show up will be a major story of the midterms, says Ryan Burge of the John C. Danforth Center on Religion and Politics.
- 另一个新闻将是天主教徒如何转变：伯杰预测，“如果亚当·汉密尔顿、詹姆斯·塔拉里科这样的人能够赢得人们的支持，那将是……那些与教会若即若离的天主教徒”。
• The other will be how Catholics shift: "If the Adam Hamiltons, the James Talaricos of the world can win over people, it's going to be ... marginally attached Catholics," Burge predicts. The bottom line:
最底线：宗教左翼存在着明显的运动——但问题依然是选民是否会加入其中。
There's a clear movement on the religious left — but the question remains whether voters will join it.