作者：尼娅-马利卡·亨德森 没错，民主党在堪萨斯州仍有胜算。
By Nia-Malika Henderson Yes, Democrats have a shot in Kansas.
虽然胜算不大，但考虑到该州已有94年未曾选出过民主党籍参议员，即便只是出现一位民主党候选人，对共和党而言也是一个值得警惕的信号。对民主党而言，这同样是一个绝佳的机遇——在中期选举进入最后阶段之际，该党可以借此决定资金投放方向。全国委员会应当为亚当·汉密尔顿牧师提供资金支持。他是一位极具特色的候选人，无论最终胜负如何，都能有助于提升民主党的形象。
It’s a long shot, but given that the state hasn’t sent a Democrat to the Senate in 94 years, even having oneis a notable and worrisome development for Republicans. It’s also a clear opportunity for the Democratic Party as it decides where to spend money in the closing weeks of this midterm cycle. The national party should spend on Rev. Adam Hamilton, a unique candidate who, win or lose, can help burnish its brand.
汉密尔顿执掌的卫理公会教堂拥有约2.5万名信徒。他是一位秉持宗教价值观的中间派人士，既有可能帮助民主党赢得参议院席位，也能为这个在宣传策略上屡屡碰壁的政党提供新的思路，使其能更有效地阐释自身政策主张、价值观以及所代表的群体。
In Hamilton, who pastors a Methodist church with about 25,000 members, Democrats have a faith-forward centrist who could flip a Senate seat and also provide a new framework for how the party, which struggles with messaging, talks about policies, people and values.
在接受《托皮卡首都日报》采访时，当被问及哪些圣经经文激励着他投身公共服务时，汉密尔顿说道：“《箴言》中有这样一句话：‘要为那些无法为自己发声的人发声。’这就是《箴言》第31章的内容。我认为这就是《圣经》中所说的‘正义’的含义——确保那些贫穷或弱势的群体也能获得公平对待。”这种做法是真正帮助他人、扶持弱者，而非向民众灌输时髦的左派理念。对于那些常常难以解释自身价值观背后逻辑的民主党而言，这种转变实在不可或缺。
“There’s a passage in the book of Proverbs that says, speak up for those who can’t speak up for themselves. That’s Proverbs 31,” he said in an interview with The Topeka Capital-Journal when asked about Bible verses that inspire him to public service. “And I think that’s what the idea of justice in the Bible is about, too. It’s about making sure that people who are either poor or powerless have access to fairness.”This is lifting people up, not lecturing them on trendy leftist beliefs, a much-needed shift for Democrats who have often failed to explain the why behind their values.
眼下，共和党正斥资数百万美元投入这场竞选，他们将汉密尔顿嘲讽为“觉醒文化的超级教会领袖”。不过汉密尔顿对此也有巧妙的回应——近年来，“觉醒文化”这一标签对民主党造成了不小的负面影响。
Republicans, who are now spending millions in the race, have derided Hamilton as a “woke megachurch CEO,” but he even has a clever comeback for this charge, which has been quite damaging for Democrats over the last few years.
他在接受《Politico》采访时说道：“所谓‘觉醒文化’，我不清楚他们具体指什么，但我明白‘被唤醒’的含义——就是不再浑浑噩噩、麻木不仁，而是觉醒于真理、善良与同情心。这正是我们理应做到的。”与那些常常摆出居高临下姿态、仿佛在俯视“思想保守的普通人”的自由派及进步人士不同，汉密尔顿展现出的形象是一位富有同情心且能凝聚人心的领袖。难怪他的言论能在本党之外也引起共鸣。
“This idea of being woke. I don’t know what they mean by that, but I do know the idea of being awakened,” he said in a Politico interview. “Like not being in slumber, but awakened to truth, to kindness, to compassion. We’re supposed to do that.”Where liberals and progressives can often sound condescending, as if they are looking down on backward normies, Hamilton sounds like a compassionate and unifying leader. It’s no wonder his message is resonating beyond his party.
无党派性质的《库克政治报告》本周将堪萨斯州的选情从“共和党占优”调整为“势均力敌”。根据《纽约时报》与锡耶纳学院近期对605名选民进行的联合民调，汉密尔顿与寻求连任的共和党籍参议员罗杰·马歇尔的支持率均为45%。该民调还显示，约16%的共和党选民支持汉密尔顿，而马歇尔仅获得3%的民主党选民支持。
The nonpartisan Cook Political Report shifted the Jayhawker State race from “Lean Republican” to “Toss Up” this week, and a recent New York Times/Siena poll of 605 voters has Hamilton tied at 45% with RepublicanSenator Roger Marshall, who is seeking a second term. Hamilton has the backing of some 16% ofed Republicans, according to that poll, while Marshall is getting just 3% of Democrats.
2024年总统大选中，唐纳德·特朗普在堪萨斯州赢得了16个百分点的优势。不过据埃默森学院9月中旬的民调显示，在该州潜在选民中，特朗普的支持率为40%，不支持率则高达53%。对马歇尔而言更棘手的是，同样根据埃默森学院的民调，他仅获得了27%的独立选民支持，而汉密尔顿则赢得了42%的独立选民青睐。
President Donald Trump won Kansas by 16 pointsin 2024, but has a 40% job approval rating and 53% disapproval among Kansas likely voters, according to an Emerson College poll from mid-September. Even more problematic for Marshall is that, according to Emerson, he is getting only 27% of independent voters to Hamilton’s 42%.
两位前共和党州长以及曾与马歇尔竞争党内提名的人士均公开支持汉密尔顿。
Two former Republican governors have endorsed Hamilton, as well as a former Marshall primary challenger.
“堪萨斯州虽属共和党大本营，却未必是保守派州。我们更倾向于自由意志主义，拥有深厚的民粹主义根基，甚至包括左翼民粹主义基础。这些倾向在州内大量独立选民、共和党选民乃至民主党选民身上都有所体现，”威奇托州立大学政治学教授亚历山德拉·米德尔伍德说道，“民众对经济状况极度不满，这种情绪自然指向了罗杰·马歇尔。”
“Kansas is a Republican state, but not a conservative state necessarily. We’re more libertarian. We have a really strong populist foundation, including a left-wing populist foundation. And those types of tendencies come out in a lot of independent and Republican and even Democratic voters in the state,” said Alexandra Middlewood, a political science professor at Wichita State University. “And these tendencies are coming out because people are so unhappy with the economy and are really being pointed at Roger Marshall.”
作为妇产科医生的马歇尔还因《纽约时报》的一篇报道饱受争议：报道称他因医疗债务起诉了700多名患者，导致其中81人遭到逮捕。汉密尔顿竞选团队为此制作了一则极具冲击力的广告，片中孕妇梅莎·齐默尔曼称自己因拖欠50美元医疗费而被捕。马歇尔竞选团队已就此事向汉密尔顿团队发出停止播放广告的警告函。
Marshall, an obstetrician gynecologist, has also been dogged by a New York Times report showing that he sued more than 700 patients over medical debt, resulting in 81 arrests. The Hamilton campaign has run a devastating ad featuring a woman, Meischa Zimmerman, who says she was arrested — while eight months pregnant — after a missed $50 payment. Marshall’s campaign has sent a cease-and-desist letter to the Hamilton campaign over the spot.
“罗杰·马歇尔利用堪萨斯州的低收入家庭谋取私利。如今的医疗体系已然失灵，但对罗杰·马歇尔而言却并非如此，”齐默尔曼在广告中说道，“他正借此大发横财。”最新的KFF健康追踪民调显示，医疗费用是选民最关心的负担问题，其受关注度与汽油价格问题相当，正因如此，这则广告才具有极强的说服力。
“Roger Marshall preyed on the low-income families of Kansas. The health care system is broken, but not for Roger Marshall,” says Zimmerman in the ad. “He’s absolutely profiting from it.”The latest KFF Health Tracking Poll finds that health care costs are the top affordability issue for voters, tied with concerns over the price of gas, which is why this ad is an effective one.
与共和党参议员阵营关系密切的超级政治行动委员会“参议院领导基金”计划在堪萨斯州投入至少800万美元用于投放广告。这些广告试图将汉密尔顿与希拉里·克林顿、卡玛拉·哈里斯以及亚历山德里娅·奥卡西奥-科尔特斯联系起来，称他“对堪萨斯州而言过于极端”，还翻出了诸多文化战争相关议题。
The Senate Leadership Fund, the super PAC aligned with Senate Republicans, is dropping at least $8 million in Kansas for ad buys that include a spot tying Hamilton to Hillary Clinton, Kamala Harris and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, calling him “too extreme for Kansas” and dredging up culture-war issues.
然而，在农民们正深陷困境之时，2024年流行的那些文化战争套路恐怕难以奏效。对于汉密尔顿这类人而言，这些攻击手段更是收效甚微——他的教众来自各个政党，他的言论既能抚慰人心，又能为当下充满对立与仇恨的政治氛围带来一丝缓和。
But when farmers are struggling, the greatest hits from the culture war circa 2024 likely don’t work as well. The attacks particularly don’t work as well on someone like Hamilton, whose parishioners include members of all parties and who has a message that provides a balm and contrast to the current caustic political moment.
“我每天早晨都会祈祷，希望自己能成为世间的盐与光，”他告诉《托皮卡首都日报》，“耶稣曾说：‘你们是世上的光，是地上的盐。’这一点至关重要……我要努力为周围的世界带来积极影响，驱散黑暗、带来光明。”汉密尔顿无疑为所在政党注入了新鲜血液，而全国各地的民主党人若想规划特朗普时代之后的发展蓝图，也理应为他这种充满正能量的理念提供资金支持。
“I pray every morning that I will be salt and light,” he told The Topeka Capital-Journal. “Jesus said, ‘You are the light of the world and the salt of the earth.’ And that’s important … to try to positively impact the world around me, push back the darkness and bring light.”Hamilton is certainly bringing something new to his party, and national Democratsshould put some money behind his refreshing message as they plot a post-Trump future.