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柴油价格飙升为何未能改变美国的柴油使用习惯Why soaring prices aren't breaking America's diesel habit

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一幅插画:一台收割机驶过一片农作物,农作物的形状看起来像心跳监护仪的波形。Illustration of a harvester driving over crop that looks like a heart beat monitor.

为何重要:柴油在农业、卡车运输及其他行业如此根深蒂固,以至于即使价格飞涨,也尚不足以促使全面转向替代方案——至少目前还没有。从电动半卡车到粪气动力拖拉机,替代方案尚未大规模铺开。

The quickest and most affordable response to historically high diesel prices is also the simplest: Use less of it. Why it matters: Diesel is so entrenched in farming, trucking and other industries that even soaring prices aren't enough — at least not yet — to prompt a wholesale shift to alternatives from electric semi trucks to manure-powered tractors. Catch up fast:

速览要点:自今年3月美国与伊朗开战以来,柴油价格已攀升至历史高位,涨幅超过汽油,在全球石油供应中断的背景下持续走高。周四,柴油均价为每加仑6.31美元,同比上涨74%;普通汽油均价为每加仑4.27美元,上涨39%。(据AAA数据)

Diesel prices have climbed to record highs since the U.S. war with Iran began in March, rising faster than gasoline amid global oil supply disruptions • Diesel averaged $6.31 a gallon Thursday, up 74% from a year ago, according to AAA. Regular gasoline averaged $4.27, up 39%. The big picture:

大局观:汽油受到更多关注,但柴油才是美国经济的主力引擎。它驱动杂货卡车、拖拉机、货运列车、工程机械、医院备用发电机,甚至校车。

Gasoline gets the attention, but diesel is the workhorse of the American economy. It powers grocery trucks, tractors, freight trains, construction equipment, hospital backup generators and even school buses

推动新闻的要点:价格飙升正冲击着农民秋季收获的时节。

Driving the news: The price spike is hitting farmers during the fall harvest.

  • “农民按整车买柴油,所以涉及的是数十万加仑柴油,当价格像现在这样飙升时,这恰恰是决定一年盈亏的关键。”Curt Blades——美国设备制造商协会高级副总裁,该协会代表拖拉机制造商及其他重型机械制造商——如此表示。

• "Farmers buy diesel by the truckload, so we're talking about hundreds of thousands of dollars in diesel, and when it goes up the way it has spiked, that's the difference between profit and loss in a year," said Curt Blades, senior vice president at the Association of Equipment Manufacturers, a trade group representing tractor makers and other heavy-equipment manufacturers.

  • 财务压力各有不同:卡车公司通常可以通过附加费将更高的燃油成本转嫁给客户;而农民对农产品价格几乎没有控制力,难以做到这一点。

• The financial pain varies: Trucking companies can often pass higher fuel costs to customers through surcharges. Farmers, who have little control over crop prices, generally can't.

经济压力已演变为政治议题, 临近中期选举之际尤为突出。

The economic pressure has become political ahead of the midterm elections.

  • 特朗普总统周一在堪萨斯州竞选集会上宣布向农民提供80亿美元一次性援助,而共和党在该州正面临激烈的参议院选战。

• President Trump announced $8 billion in one-time aid for farmers at a campaign rally in Kansas on Monday, where Republicans face a competitive Senate race.

  • Blades表示,援助方案“现在还太早判断其影响”,但他欢迎收获季节的支持。

• "It's a bit too soon to tell the impact," Blades said of the aid package, though he welcomed support during harvest.

现状:运输和农业设备专家表示,最直接的成本节约措施在于更高效地利用现有的柴油发动机。

State of play: Trucking and agricultural equipment experts say the most immediate savings come from using existing diesel engines more efficiently.

  • 卡车司机可以通过降低行驶速度和减少怠速时间来节省燃料。

• Truckers can slow down and reduce idling.

  • 农民越来越多地使用 GPS 导航系统来控制拖拉机的行驶路线,从而避免重复行驶相同的路线——这种做法被称为“精准农业”。

• Farmers are increasingly using GPS-guided tractors to avoid covering the same ground twice, a practice known as precision agriculture.

根据行业组织 Clean Fuels Alliance America 的说法,生物柴油和可再生柴油可以在不更换现有发动机的基础上减少对石油的依赖;推动这些技术发展的因素主要是政府的强制混合要求(而非柴油价格的高低)。

• Biodiesel and renewable diesel can reduce petroleum dependence without replacing existing engines, but government blending requirements — rather than high diesel prices alone — are driving growth, according to Clean Fuels Alliance America, an industry trade group.

详细来看:目前,那些能够在不使发动机怠速的情况下为卡车驾驶室供电的电池技术正逐渐受到关注。

Zoom in: Batteries that power truck drivers' sleeping quarters without idling the engine are gaining traction.

总部位于内华达州的 Dragonfly Energy 公司开发了这样的系统:该系统可以在卡车行驶过程中通过柴油发动机为电池充电,停车后则可为空调等设备提供电力。

• Nevada-based Dragonfly Energy sells systems that recharge through the truck's diesel-powered engine while driving, then power air conditioning and other appliances while parked.

该公司预计第三季度的运输收入将增长 160%,这在整体财务表现疲软的情况下显得尤为突出。

• The company projected a 160% increase in third-quarter trucking revenue, a bright spot amid otherwise sluggish financial performance.

总部位于德克萨斯州的 Stevens Transport 公司表示,其 400 辆卡车使用了 Dragonfly Energy 的电池技术,与使用小型柴油发动机为驾驶室供电的卡车相比,柴油消耗量减少了约 4%。

• Texas-based Stevens Transport says 400 of its trucks use Dragonfly's batteries, cutting diesel consumption by about 4% compared with trucks using smaller diesel engines to power their sleeping quarters.

这种技术发展反映了能源转型中的一个根本性矛盾:技术究竟是逐步改变一个行业,还是彻底颠覆它?

The approach illustrates a fundamental tension in energy transitions: Does technology incrementally change an industry or revolutionize it?

Dragonfly Energy 的首席商务官 Wade Seaburg 表示:“我们甚至还没有掌握如何在卡车静止时不让其运行(即关闭发动机),更不用说用电力来驱动卡车了。我们应该先从解决这些‘小问题’开始。”

• "We haven't even mastered leaving the truck off when it's not moving, let alone moving it with electricity," said Wade Seaburg, Dragonfly's chief commercial officer. "Let's master the little things first, and that's been a well-received message."

北美货运效率委员会(North American Council for Freight Efficiency)的执行董事 Mike Roeth 则认为:“我们应该采取渐进式的发展策略,而不是追求革命性的变革。”

• "Think evolutionary rather than revolutionary," said Mike Roeth, executive director of the North American Council for Freight Efficiency, a nonprofit researching fuel-saving trucking technologies.

这一逻辑同样适用于所有依赖柴油的产业:昂贵的设备通常可以使用多年,而更换燃料往往需要新建基础设施或购置新车辆。

The same logic applies across diesel-dependent industries. Expensive equipment lasts for years, and switching fuels often requires new infrastructure and vehicles.

“柴油价格更高这一事实在核算中很重要,但并没有让这些替代方案的挑战变得更容易,”Roeth 说。

• "The fact diesel fuel prices are higher matters in the calculations, but it doesn't make the challenges of these alternatives any easier," Roeth said.

但是:更剧烈的变化仍在酝酿之中,尤其是在电动卡车领域。建设共享充电车库并租赁电动卡车的 Forum Mobility 表示,在加利福尼亚州,柴油价格已突破每加仑 8 美元,电动卡车的燃料成本优势约为 40%。

Yes, but: More dramatic changes are still percolating, particularly in electric trucking • Forum Mobility, which builds shared charging depots and leases electric trucks, says electric trucks have a roughly 40% fueling cost advantage over diesel in California, where diesel prices have topped $8 a gallon.

  • 该公司已获得 25 家承运商对 330 辆 Tesla Semi 的承诺,并正在加利福尼亚州建设四个额外的充电车库。

• The company has commitments from 25 carriers for 330 Tesla Semis and is building four additional charging depots in California.

与此同时,在农场方面,设备制造商 New Holland 耗时十余年将甲烷动力拖拉机推向市场,其中包括可使用牲畜粪便制成的燃料运行的机型,此前该公司放弃了一个昂贵的氢能拖拉机项目。

Meanwhile, on the farm, equipment maker New Holland has spent more than a decade bringing methane-powered tractors to market, including ones that can run on fuel made from livestock manure, after abandoning an expensive hydrogen tractor project.

  • “柴油价格上涨引发了多一点兴趣,”New Holland 产品营销经理 Sean Dorosz 说。但“我不认为这会成为让他们开支票购买甲烷拖拉机的唯一因素。”

• "The increase in diesel prices has generated a little more interest," said Sean Dorosz, a product marketing manager at New Holland. But "I don't think it's going to be the one thing that makes them write a check to buy a methane tractor."

  • 获取粪便衍生燃料的途径和州政府激励措施也会影响经济账。

• Access to manure-derived fuel and state incentives also shape the economics. The bottom line:

结论:高柴油价格正在强化替代方案的理由。让它们变得实用则是一个慢得多的过程。

High diesel prices are strengthening the case for alternatives. Making them practical is a much slower process.

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