柴油价格飙升对美国人来说一眼可见，只要他们给汽车、SUV和皮卡加油就能看到，尽管只有少数美国司机拥有柴油动力车辆，所以他们可能认为自己躲过了这种巨大的价格冲击。再想想。
The skyrocketing price of diesel is plain for Americans to see anytime they fuel up their cars, SUVs and pickup trucks, though only a fraction of US drivers own a diesel-powered vehicle so they may think they are dodging that massive sticker shock. Think again.
劳工部周四公布的批发通胀数据显示，美国9月份生产者价格涨幅远超预期 — — 这预示着在未来几周和几个月里，消费者层面的通胀将更加顽固，因为这些成本将被转嫁下去。高能源价格的影响，尤其是创纪录的高柴油价格，在这份34页的报告中随处可见。原因在于，正如牛津经济研究院近期所写：“柴油是经济的工作马燃料。”以下是柴油推动生产者通胀上升的一些方式，以及这如何威胁在不久的将来推高一系列消费者成本。
Wholesale inflation data from the Labor Department on Thursday showed US producer prices climbed far more than expected in September — auguring more stiff inflation at the consumer level in the weeks and months ahead as those costs get passed along. Evidence of the impact of high energy prices, record-high diesel prices in particular, was all over that 34-page readout. Why? Because, as Oxford Economics wrote recently: "Diesel is the workhorse fuel of the economy." Here are some of the ways diesel is driving up producer inflation and how that threatens to drive up a range of consumer costs further soon.
如果你拥有它、吃它或喝它，那么在它到达你手中或送到你家的过程中，某个环节一定涉及卡车。美国货运车队中的绝大多数车辆使用柴油。因此，当柴油价格在过去一年里翻倍以上时，运输所有这些货物的成本就会上升，随后承运人开始要求提高该服务的价格。
If you own it, eat it or drink it, a truck was involved somewhere along the way in bringing it — either to where you picked it up or to your house. The vast majority of those vehicles in the US goods transportation fleet run on diesel. So when diesel prices more than double as they have over the last year, the cost of moving all that stuff around goes up and soon those shippers begin demanding higher prices for that service.
9月份，生产者价格指数中衡量货物卡车运输成本的指标同比上升了19%，这是四年多来的最大涨幅。更重要的是，这些货运运输成本对柴油价格飙升的反应速度，远快于它们对新冠疫情后价格飙升的反应速度。这是因为目前美国整体经济状况要好得多，失业率仍处于历史低位4.2%，支撑着强劲需求。此外，柴油的绝对价格如今超过疫情复苏初期的两倍。
In September, the Producer Price Index's gauge of the cost for truck transportation of freight was up by 19% year over year, the most in just over four years. What's more, those freight transportation costs are responding much faster to the surge in diesel prices than they did to the price surge following the COVID-19 pandemic. That's because the overall economy is in a much better position now than it was then, with the US jobless rate at a still historically low 4.2% supporting robust demand. Also the absolute price of the fuel is more than twice what it was as the pandemic recovery began.
柴油对农业至关重要，它为生产食品所涉及的拖拉机和收获设备提供动力，同时也为将食品运送到杂货店和餐厅的卡车提供燃料。
Diesel is critical to farming, powering the tractors and harvesting equipment involved in producing food and again in fueling the trucks that take it to grocery stores and restaurants.
虽然9月份最终用户消费者食品成本在生产者价格指数（PPI）和消费者价格指数中的增长相对温和，但食品供应链更上游的成本正在快速上升。PPI所称的“中间需求”第一阶段和第二阶段的食品投入品平均价格——这反映了生产者自身的能源成本以及生产农民使用的关键物品（如肥料和其他农业化学品）所嵌入的能源成本——在9月份较去年同期上涨了15.6%，再次创下约四年来的最大涨幅。对能源敏感的饲料产品，如玉米、干草、干草籽和油籽的价格，均较去年同期上涨超过25%。
While end-user consumer food cost increases in both PPI and the Consumer Price Index in September were pretty benign, costs further back in the food supply chain are rising fast. The average of food inputs at stages one and two of what PPI calls "intermediate demand" - which reflect producers' own energy costs and the energy costs embedded in producing key things farmers use like fertilizers and other agricultural chemicals — was up 15.6% from a year earlier in September, again by the most in about four years. Prices for energy-sensitive feed products like corn, hay and hayseeds and oilseeds all shot up by more than 25% year over year.
如果历史能作参考，家庭应做好准备，未来几个月杂货店价格将进一步上涨。
If history is any guide, households should brace for yet higher grocery store prices in the months ahead.
“我们预计今年晚些时候食品通胀将出现回升，”牛津大学的美国高级经济学家马修·马丁在PPI报告发布后表示。
"We expect a pickup in food inflation later this year," Oxford's senior US economist Matthew Martin said after the PPI report.
美国经济的能源密集度远低于1970年代石油冲击时期，但它仍然对整体价格产生影响——而且这种影响会随着高价持续时间的延长而加剧。诸如制造业材料之类的PPI类别——这些材料本身在生产和运输过程中正在承受更高的柴油成本——正以两位数的年增长率上涨。生产者必须承受利润空间被压缩的冲击，或者将成本转嫁下去。
The US economy is far less energy-intensive than it was during the oil shocks of the 1970s, but it is still has an impact on prices overall — and more so the longer they stay high. PPI categories like materials for manufacturing — inputs that are themselves absorbing higher diesel costs to produce and deliver — are rising at double-digit annual rates. Producers must take the hit to their margins or pass the costs along.
柴油价格的上涨威胁着让即将到来的假日季节变得更加昂贵——并且它已经成为该季节最大宗商品之一：玩具的一个影响因素。
The diesel surge threatens to make the coming holiday season more expensive — and is already a factor in one of the season's biggest staples: Toys.
受更高运输成本等因素影响的玩具价格，在9月份环比上涨幅度达到历史最高。
Prices for toys — exposed to higher shipping costs among other things — rose in September by the most ever month over month.