
克里斯托弗·鲁加伯 华盛顿 — 高油价正在加剧通胀,并吸走更多美国人的美元,但消费者仍在掏腰包消费,推动经济前行,至少目前如此。
CHRISTOPHER RUGABER WASHINGTON — High gas prices are intensifying inflation and vacuuming up more of Americans’ dollars, yet consumers are still digging deep to spend , powering the economy, at least for now .
周四公布的一系列经济数据显示,随着油价和天然气价格上涨开始拉动其他经济领域的价格上升 — — 包括航运和仓储 — — 通胀上月加速,而这些涨幅尚未波及大多数美国人。批发食品价格飙升,这可能导致未来几个月杂货变得更贵。
A slew of economic data Thursday showed that inflation accelerated last month as more expensive oil and gas began to lift prices in other parts of the economy, including shipping and warehousing, before the increases reach most Americans. Wholesale food prices jumped, which could make groceries more expensive in the months ahead.
与此同时,根据周四公布的数据,消费者也加大了支出。尽管支出增加很大程度上反映了价格上涨,但消费者的韧性正在推动美国经济实现稳健增长。
At the same time, consumers also ramped up their spending, according to data released Thursday. Though much of the increase reflected higher prices, consumer resilience is powering solid U.S. economic growth.
尽管出现零星裁员,工人仍享有不寻常的就业保障程度,这很可能鼓励消费,尽管调查显示许多美国人对经济前景持悲观态度。
Workers are enjoying an unusual degree of job security despite scattered layoffs, which likely encourages spending despite surveys showing that many Americans have a gloomy economic outlook.
这一切共同构成了一种经济形态:人们在花钱,但对此并不感觉良好。
It all adds up to an economy in which people are spending money but don’t feel good about it.
“消费者可能咬紧牙关,直视高油价,”普兰特莫兰金融顾问公司首席投资官吉姆·贝尔德说。“他们不高兴,但仍在花钱。”周四的一份批发价格报告有助于解释这种忧虑:政府的生产者价格指数 — — 衡量到达消费者前的成本 — — 9月较去年同期上涨6.3%,为近四年来最大涨幅。按月计算,8月到9月价格飙升1.3%,这主要受到油价上涨20%的推动。
“Consumers may have gritted their teeth and looked through higher gas prices,” said Jim Baird, chief investment officer at Plante Moran Financial Advisers. “They’re not happy, but they’re still spending.”A report Thursday on wholesale prices helps explain the gloom: The government’s producer price index, which measures costs before they reach the consumer, jumped 6.3% in September from a year earlier, the biggest increase in nearly four years . On a monthly basis, prices soared 1.3% from August to September, powered by a 20% rise in gas prices.
更高的柴油价格使得运输成本上升,因为长途卡车和货运列车依赖这种燃料。运输成本的上升可能有助于推高食品成本,食品成本从8月到9月增长了1.2%,这是自2月以来的最大月度涨幅。批发价格报告紧随其后的是周三发布的最新消费者价格数据,该数据显示9月通胀率升至3.7%,远高于美联储2%的目标。
Higher diesel prices have made shipping more expensive because long-haul trucks and freight trains rely on the fuel. Higher transportation costs may have helped push up food costs, which rose 1.2% from August to September, the biggest monthly gain since February. The wholesale price report followed the latest consumer price figures, released Wednesday, which showed inflation rising to 3.7% in September, far above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target.
“运输价格的冲击会影响经济中的每一种商品,因为制造业的投入要运送到工厂,而生产各个阶段的商品则通过卡车、火车或铁路从生产者流向批发商再到零售商,”高频经济学首席经济学家卡尔·温伯格写道。“这就是能源价格上涨如何‘渗透’到核心商品价格的方式。”农民也依赖柴油为大多数设备提供动力,这可能进一步推高食品价格。根据AAA的数据,全国柴油价格周四平均每加仑为6.32美元,而一年前仅为3.66美元。
“The jolt to transportation prices affects every good in the economy, since inputs to manufacturing move to factories and goods at all stages of production move from producer to wholesaler to retailer by truck, train or rail,” wrote Carl Weinberg, chief economist at High Frequency Economics. “This is how increases in energy prices ‘bleed through’ to prices of core goods.”Farmers also rely on diesel to power most of their equipment, which could further push up food prices. Diesel prices averaged $6.32 a gallon nationwide Thursday, according to AAA, up from just $3.66 a year ago.
尽管存在这些成本压力,零售销售额仍从8月增长了0.8%,增幅高于经济学家的预测。这一增长主要由加油站消费增长6.4%带动,但消费者也在其他地方增加了支出,包括餐馆和酒吧的消费增长了1.1%。
Despite those cost pressures, retail sales rose a solid 0.8% from August, more than economists had forecast. The increase was driven by a 6.4% jump in spending at gas stations, but consumers also spent elsewhere, including a healthy 1.1% rise at restaurants and bars.
经济学家表示,只要失业率保持低位且美国人继续就业,消费支出可能会保持韧性。尽管招聘放缓,但裁员也异常低位。
Economists say that as long as unemployment stays low and Americans continue working, spending will likely stay resilient. Hiring has been sluggish, but layoffs are also unusually low.
周四另一份报告显示,上周申请失业救济人数低于20万,这是历史性的低水平。失业救济申请人数是裁员的一个代理指标。
Another report Thursday showed that the number of people seeking unemployment benefits stayed below 200,000 last week, a historically low figure. Applications for unemployment aid are a proxy for layoffs.
“如果失业率保持低位,意味着消费者有工作,他们将继续消费,尽管可能更加谨慎,并且越来越依赖储蓄和信贷,”Nationwide首席经济学家Kathy Bostjancic在一份声明中表示。不过,许多经济学家担心,随着通胀居高不下,将会持续削弱美国人的消费能力,并开始拖累经济。按通胀调整后的周薪,与一年前相比,9月份实际下降,这是自5月以来首次出现下降。
“If the unemployment rate remains low, meaning consumers have a job, they will continue to spend, even if more cautiously and leaning increasingly on savings and credit,” Kathy Bostjancic, chief economist at Nationwide, said in an Many economists worry, however, that as inflation stays high, it will steadily erode Americans’ spending power and start to weigh on the economy. Weekly paychecks, adjusted for inflation, actually declined in September compared with a year ago for the first time since May.
劳工部本月初公布的数据显示,9月份招聘放缓至令人失望的2.9万个岗位,而8月份经修正后为13.3万个岗位。失业率小幅上升至4.2%,高于上个月,但仍处于低位。然而,经济学家此前预计9月份非农就业人数将在9万个左右。
And September hiring slowed to a disappointing 29,000 jobs from a revised 133,000 in August, according to the Labor Department early this month. The unemployment rate ticked higher to 4.2% from the previous month, which is still low. Yet economists had expected September payrolls to come in around 90,000.
顽固居高的通胀也意味着,美联储在未来几个月可能会提高关键利率,以试图放缓消费并降低通胀。当美联储提高利率时,随着时间的推移,这可能会提高抵押贷款、汽车贷款和信用卡的借款成本。
Stubbornly elevated inflation also means the Federal Reserve will likely raise its key interest rate in the coming months in an effort to slow spending and bring down inflation. When the Fed raises its rate, that can raise borrowing costs for mortgages, car loans, and credit cards over time.
根据最近一次会议公布的会议纪要,大多数美联储官员预计,今年可能还需要再次加息以对抗通胀。
According to minutes released from the most recent meeting, most Fed officials expect that another interest rate increase will likely be needed this year to combat inflation.
美联储在9月份将关键利率上调四分之一个百分点,至约3.9%,这是三年来的首次加息。
The Fed increased its key interest rate by a quarter-point to about 3.9% in September, its first increase in three years.
此次加息违背了特朗普总统一再呼吁美联储降息的要求,并促使总统批评美联储的利率制定委员会,尽管他仍表示支持他今年早些时候任命的主席Kevin Warsh。
The increase defied President Donald Trump’s repeated calls for the Fed to cut rates and prompted the president to criticize the Fed’s rate-setting committee, though he still expressed support for Chairman Kevin Warsh, whom he appointed earlier this year.