美国经济扩张已进入第七年，目前看不到衰退迹象。
The US economic expansion is in its seventh year, and there is no recession in sight.
失业率和裁员率处于历史低位。消费支出数据显示，美国人正在电影、爱好、服装和新车上大手大脚地消费。股市也徘徊在历史高位附近。然而，从许多指标来看，人们却感到痛苦。
Unemployment and layoffs are historically low. Consumer spending data suggest that Americans are splurging on movies and hobbies, clothing and new cars. And the stock market is hovering near record territory. And by many measures, people are miserable.
相当一部分美国人表示，感觉经济体制对他们不利。民调显示，他们对高物价感到沮丧，对就业保障感到焦虑，对经济前景持悲观态度。更别提汽油价格了。
A significant portion of Americans say it feels like the economy is stacked against them. Polls indicate that they are frustrated with high prices, anxious about job security and pessimistic about their economic future. And don’t even get them started on gasoline prices.
在美国11月的中期选举前，经济问题持续成为选民最关心的首要议题。但情况真的像许多人说的那样动荡不安吗？
Economic issues keep showing up as voters’ top concerns ahead of the US midterm elections in November. But are things as shaky as many say?
新冠疫情结束后的几年里，美国人面临了四十多年来最严重的通胀。
Americans confronted the hottest inflation in more than four decades in the years immediately following the Covid pandemic.
他们至今仍在为“标签冲击”而挣扎。物价持续上涨，尽管涨幅比几年前放缓。根据美国劳工统计局消费者价格指数衡量的一篮子商品和服务，8月份同比上涨3.4%。这不到美国走出疫情时达到的9.1%通胀峰值的一半。但涨幅仍然足够高，让民众切身感受得到。
They are still struggling with sticker shock. Prices continue to go up, though at a slower pace than a few years ago. The basket of goods and services measured by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics’ consumer price index was 3.4% higher in August than a year earlier. That’s less than half the 9.1% pace of inflation reached as the US pulled out of the pandemic. But it’s still high enough for people to notice.
稳步上涨的物价叠加在疫情后的飙升之上。自2019年底以来，总体消费者价格上涨了约30%。食品杂货贵了32%。外出就餐贵了近40%。房租上涨了三分之一以上。电费上涨了43%。汽车维修费用跳涨了一半多，车险上涨了约48%。
The steady rise in prices comes on top of the post-pandemic spike. Since the end of 2019, overall consumer prices are up by about 30%. Groceries are 32% more expensive. Eating out is close to 40% more. Rents are up by more than a third. Electricity costs are up by 43%. Auto maintenance jumped by more than half and car insurance by about 48%.
物价几乎总是在上涨，但通常不像现在这么快。疫情前十年，年均通胀率约为1.8%。现在接近那个水平的两倍。部分原因是经济遭遇了一系列冲击，加速了物价涨幅。
Prices are almost always rising, but usually not this fast. In the decade before the pandemic, annual inflation averaged around 1.8%. Now it’s close to double that. That is in part because the economy faced a series of shocks that accelerated price gains.
2021年全球经济重新开放后，供应链出现紧张和断裂。然后，俄罗斯入侵乌克兰切断了化肥、小麦和石油的运输，导致食品和燃料价格上涨。特朗普政府的“解放日”关税震惊了市场，随后的征税提高了许多商品的价格。人工智能技术的发展推动了商业投资和建筑招聘，但也推高了计算机软件和组件的价格。最近的伊朗战争导致能源价格上涨和借贷成本上升。
Supply chains stretched and broke in 2021 after the global economy reopened . Then Russia’s invasion of Ukraine choked off fertilizer, wheat and oil shipments, sending food and fuel prices higher. The Trump administration’s “Liberation Day” tariffs spooked markets and subsequent levies raised prices on many goods. The buildout in artificial intelligence technology fueled business investment and construction hiring, but also sent prices for computer software and components higher. And most recently the Iran war has led to higher energy prices and rising borrowing costs.
芝加哥联邦储备银行行长奥斯坦·古尔斯比9月份在伦敦发表演讲时表示：“供应冲击来得更频繁、打击更严重、持续时间更长。”
“Supply shocks have come more frequently, hit harder and lasted longer,” Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Austan Goolsbee said in a speech in London in September.
自2019年底以来，美国人的时薪平均增长了约三分之一。但经通胀调整后，工资几乎跟不上物价上涨的步伐。甚至美国人所取得的边际收益也开始蒸发。截至8月份，经通胀调整后的薪酬连续五个月同比下降，预计9月份将再次下降。即便如此，工人们仍在继续花钱--利用一系列资源来这样做。
Americans’ hourly earnings are, on average, up about one-third since the end of 2019. But adjusted for inflation, pay has barely kept up with rising prices. And even the marginal gains Americans have made are beginning to evaporate. Inflation-adjusted pay was down from a year earlier for five straight months as of August — and is projected to decline again in September. Even so, workers continue to spend — tapping a range of resources to do so.
定期的薪水并不是收入或财富的唯一来源。有些人在零工经济中工作。今年股市创下一系列纪录，提振了投资者的投资组合。过去几年，房屋价值大幅增长，2026年的巨额退税增加了家庭预算。
Regular paychecks aren’t the only source of income or wealth. Some people work in the gig economy. The stock market hit a series of records this year, lifting investor portfolios. Home values have grown substantially over the past few years, and big tax refunds in 2026 boosted household budgets.
但工资是大多数美国人退休前收入的主要贡献者。工资增长缓慢加上物价上涨迫使许多人减少储蓄--或者根本不储蓄。
But wages are the main contributor to income for most Americans up until retirement. Sluggish wage growth alongside rising prices has forced many to save less — or not save at all.
在好消息方面，很多人都在赚薪水。从许多指标来看，美国经济都处于充分就业状态或接近充分就业状态。失业率处于历史最低水平，但9月份小幅上升至4.2%。近几个月来，医疗保健、建筑和制造业都在增加就业机会。9月份劳动力参与率也有所上升，这通常是越来越多的人正在寻找工作的积极迹象。
On the good news front, plenty of people are earning a paycheck. The US economy is by many measures operating at or near full employment. The unemployment rate is historically low, though it edged higher, to 4.2%, in September. Healthcare, construction and manufacturing have all been adding jobs in recent months. And the labor force participation rate also rose in September, typically a positive sign that more people are looking for work.
但特定行业的实力和低失业率掩盖了就业市场的低迷。雇主并没有解雇太多工人，但总体而言，他们也没有雇用太多工人。这让一些人感到停滞不前。Glassdoor 9月份的员工信心指数跌至该调查10年历史上的最低水平。
But sector-specific strength and the low unemployment rate mask a sluggish job market. Employers aren’t laying off many workers, but overall they aren’t hiring many workers, either. That’s left some people feeling stuck in place. Glassdoor’s employee confidence index in September fell to the lowest level in the survey’s 10-year history.
其他人则被锁在门外。初级大学毕业生在就业市场上的经历尤其艰难，长期失业者的队伍正在不断壮大。
Others are simply locked out. Entry-level college graduates have had an especially tough time cracking the job market, and the ranks of long-term unemployed are growing.
因此，尽管存在强劲需求，但整体就业市场还不足以广泛提高实际工资或创造广泛的机会。
So while there are pockets of strong demand, the overall job market isn’t hot enough to broadly lift real wages or create wide-ranging opportunities.
有工作的人很可能会保住它--裁员率处于历史低位。在疫情爆发前购房的美国房主目睹了房产价值飙升。投资者表现良好。自2019年底以来，即使没有将收益进行再投资，与标准普尔500指数挂钩的指数基金的价值也增加了一倍多。但当这些里程碑不适用时，这可能是进一步落后的迹象。拥有住房是令人沮丧的一个方面。
A person who has a job is likely to keep it — layoffs are historically low. US homeowners who bought before the pandemic have watched property values soar. And investors have done well. An index fund tied to the S&P 500 has more than doubled in value since the end of 2019 even without reinvesting the gains. But when these milestones don’t apply, it might be a sign of falling further behind. Homeownership is one area of frustration.
自2019年底以来，现房的销售价格中位数上涨了约一半，30年期固定抵押贷款评级已从不到4%攀升至7%以上。不包括税收和保险，这相当于支付的费用大约是疫情前的两倍。
The median sales price of an existing home is up by about half since the end of 2019, and rated on 30-year fixed mortgages have climbed to more than 7% from less than 4%. Excluding taxes and insurance, that equates to a payment that is roughly double what it was before the pandemic.
人工智能投资是经济的亮点之一。但对于许多美国人来说，这并不是一种安慰，他们担心该技术会导致他们失业，而其数据中心会吞噬他们社区的土地。
Investment in artificial intelligence is one of the economy’s bright spots. But that has been cold comfort for many Americans who worry that the technology will eliminate their jobs while its data centers swallow up land in their communities.
据摩根大通公司称，到2030年，数据中心的资本支出累计可能达到5.5万亿美元根据路透社/益普索6月份的一项调查，约54%的民主党人和37%的共和党人表示反对在美国建设新的数据中心。
Capital spending on data centers could total $5.5 trillion cumulatively by 2030, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co. Some 54% of Democrats and 37% of Republicans said they oppose construction of new data centers in the US, according to a June survey by Reuters/Ipsos.
Morning Consult首席经济学家约翰·莱尔（John Leer）表示：“人们直接或间接地非常担心这对他们的工作意味着什么。”“这是规则和经济结构似乎正在发生变化的另一种方式。”美国人对其经济地位的看法往往不仅仅受到他们个人财务状况的影响。事实上，调查显示，当执政党与他们的前景保持一致时，个人通常会对经济感到更加乐观。当他们的政党下台时，即使他们自己的处境稳定，他们也会变得更加悲观。
“People are very concerned, either directly or indirectly, around what this is going to mean for their jobs,” said John Leer, chief economist at Morning Consult. “It’s another way in which the rules and the structure of the economy seem to be changing.”Americans’ views about their economic standing tend to be shaped by more than just their personal finances. Indeed, surveys show that individuals generally feel more optimistic about the economy when the party in power is aligned with their outlook. When their party is out of power, they become more pessimistic, even when their own situation is stable.
例如，唐纳德·特朗普2024年连任总统后，共和党人的消费者情绪飙升，而民主党人的消费者情绪甚至在他就职之前就有所下降。
After Donald Trump was reelected president in 2024, for example, consumer sentiment surged among Republicans and dropped among Democrats even before his inauguration.
但自2026年初以来，政治派别、地理和收入方面的信心指标一直在下滑，这表明大量美国人对经济抱有担忧。
But since the start of 2026, measures of confidence have been slumping across political affiliation, geography and income, suggesting a wide swath of Americans harbor concerns about the economy.