印尼警告可能限制向其认为不尊重的国家出口能源，此举正值地区紧张局势之际，令新加坡及其他东南亚买家警觉，暴露出依赖一个日益保护自身资源的邻国所面临的风险。
Indonesia’s warnings of curbing energy exports to countries it deems disrespectful amid regional tensions have put Singapore and other Southeast Asian buyers on notice, exposing the risks of relying on a neighbour increasingly protective of its resources.
但分析人士认为，考虑到印尼自身的经济利益以及区域能源合作的互利性（包括筹划已久的东盟电力互联互通网络），雅加达付诸行动的可能性极小。
But analysts see little chance of Jakarta following through on the threat, given its own economic interests and the mutual benefits of regional energy cooperation, including the long-planned Asean Power Grid.
周四，统筹下游产业与能源转型部长巴希尔·拉哈达利亚表示，他不会犹豫考虑停止向不尊重印尼的国家出口。
On Thursday, Coordinating Minister for Downstreaming and Energy Transition Bahlil Lahadalia said he would not hesitate to consider halting exports to countries that did not respect Indonesia.
据当地媒体报道，巴希尔在一座天然气设施的启用仪式上说：“别只在有需要时才来求助，可当真正可以商谈的其他议题出现时，却表现得毫无体统，像个不知如何行事得体的人。”
“Don’t come asking for help only when you’re in need, but when other issues that can actually be discussed arrive, act like you have no sense of propriety, like someone who doesn’t know how to conduct yourself properly,” said Bahlil at the launch of a gas facility, as reported by local media.
前一天，他告诉记者，印尼正考虑不再与邻国续签天然气出口合同，以优先满足国内能源需求。身兼能源与矿产资源部长的巴希尔在两个场合均未点名任何国家。
A day earlier, he told reporters that Indonesia was considering not renewing natural gas export contracts with neighbouring countries to prioritise domestic energy needs. Bahlil, who is also the minister of energy and mineral resources, did not name any countries on either occasion.
智库ODI全球气候与可持续发展项目高级研究员米尔扎·胡达表示，印尼的言论很可能会让从雅加达进口天然气的邻国——如新加坡、泰国和菲律宾——保持警惕。
Mirza Huda, a senior research fellow at the climate and sustainability programme at think tank ODI Global, said Indonesia’s remarks were likely to put neighbouring countries who imported natural gas from Jakarta – such as Singapore, Thailand and the Philippines – on notice.
但他补充说，尽管这些警告“值得关注”，但不应被解读为决定中断供应。
But while the warnings “warranted attention”, they should not be interpreted as a decision to disrupt supplies, he added.
根据统计署BPS的数据，在东南亚国家联盟（东盟）成员国中，新加坡去年是印尼天然气的最大进口国，进口量达322万吨。泰国和菲律宾分别进口29.1万吨和13.8万吨。
Among member states of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean), Singapore was the largest importer of natural gas from Jakarta last year at 3.22 million tonnes, according to statistics agency BPS. Thailand and the Philippines imported 291,000 tonnes and 138,000 tonnes respectively.
战略能源与资源中心联合创始主席维克多·尼安认为，新加坡或许是面临天然气合同可能不被续签风险最大的国家，因为其与印度尼西亚的协议将于2028年底到期。
Victor Nian, founding co-chairman of the Centre for Strategic Energy and Resources, cites Singapore as arguably the most exposed to potential non-renewal of natural gas contracts, given that its deal with Indonesia is set to expire at the end of 2028.
但他表示，该城邦已通过进口全球市场的液化天然气实现了供应多元化，失去雅加达管道更可能导致能源成本上升，而非供应危机。
But the city state had diversified supplies through liquefied natural gas imports for global markets, and losing the Jakarta pipeline was likely to risk higher energy costs rather than a supply crisis, he said.
Ember高级亚洲能源分析师迪尼塔·塞蒂亚瓦蒂指出，在合同到期前违反天然气合同将导致印度尼西亚蒙受损失。
Dinita Setyawati, senior Asia energy analyst at Ember, pointed out that breaching gas contracts before expiry would lead to losses for Indonesia.
这些警告凸显了依赖进口天然气的脆弱性，她呼吁投资可再生能源及相关技术，以作为缓冲。“化石燃料是无法再生的分子。”巴赫利尔的言论发表之际，印度尼西亚正面临股市暴跌和十多年来最严重的烟雾危机。
The warnings underscored the vulnerability of being dependent on imported gas, she said, urging investments in renewable energy and relevant technologies to serve as buffers. “Fossil fuels are molecules that cannot be reproduced.”Bahlil’s remarks come as Indonesia grapples with a stock-market rout and its worst haze episode in over a decade.
雅加达对此类危机的回应是公开展示民族主义。本周，总统普拉博沃·苏比安托点名批评全球指数公司MSCI，该公司曾警告称，印度尼西亚的经济可能从新兴市场降级为独立市场地位。“MSCI想吓唬我们，但我对他们说：印度尼西亚不惧怕任何人，也不会被吓倒！”周三的内阁会议上，普拉博沃还抨击了那些因野火加剧而冷落该国的国家。“印度尼西亚是一个礼貌且有耐心的国家。我们的国家常常受到侮辱，但请相信，我们的国家不想一直受到侮辱，”他说。
Jakarta has responded to the crises with public shows of nationalism. President Prabowo Subianto this week called out global index MSCI, which warned that Indonesia’s economy could be downgraded from emerging-market to stand-alone-market status. “MSCI wants to scare us, but I say to them: Indonesia fears no one and will not be intimidated!”During a cabinet meeting on Wednesday, Prabowo also slammed countries he said liked to snub his nation over intensifying wildfires. “Indonesia is a polite and patient nation. Our country is often insulted, but believe me, our nation does not want to be insulted all the time,” he said.
据报道，雅加达已搁置接受新加坡和马来西亚提供的灭火援助，这些火灾已困扰该地区许多国家。
Jakarta has reportedly held off accepting offers of help from Singapore and Malaysia to tackle the fires, which have plagued many countries in the region.
ISEAS－尤索夫·伊萨克研究所东盟研究中心研究员梅琳达·马蒂努斯指出，当前的跨境烟雾情况可能会让人产生印象，认为印度尼西亚最新的警告是针对新加坡的。
Melinda Martinus, a fellow at the ISEAS – Yusof Ishak Institute’s Asean Studies Centre, noted that the current transboundary haze situation might lead to the perception that Indonesia was targeting Singapore with its latest warnings.
她指出，资源民族主义在印尼并不新鲜，并引用了印尼政府近期的举措，例如成立丹纳塔拉资源印尼公司（Danantara Sumber Daya Indonesia）来监管商品出口。
She said resource nationalism was not new in Indonesia, citing recent moves such as the establishment of Danantara Sumber Daya Indonesia by the Indonesian government to supervise commodity exports.
这个矿产资源丰富的国家还禁止未加工的镍、铝土矿和原铜出口，以鼓励企业在国内进行矿产精炼，提升本地经济。雅加达也曾多次限制棕榈油出口，以保障国内供应并防止价格过度上涨。
The mineral-rich country has also banned the export of unprocessed nickel, bauxite and raw copper to encourage companies to refine minerals domestically and boost the local economy. Jakarta has also restricted palm oil exports on several occasions to safeguard domestic supply and prevent excessive price rises.
她说：“这种形式的资源民族主义常被政界人士包装成帮助印尼实现成为高收入国家的手段。”
“This form of resource nationalism is often framed by politicians as a means of helping Indonesia achieve its ambition of becoming a high-income country,” she said.
Verisk Maplecroft 能源与资源研究主管 Kaho Yu 表示，雅加达的警告反映出商品生产国对资源主权的趋势正在扩大且日益加剧。
Jakarta’s warnings reflected a broader and intensifying trend towards resource sovereignty among commodity producers, said Kaho Yu, head of energy and resources research at Verisk Maplecroft.
他指出：“依赖印尼天然气的东南亚国家需要加强与供应商的互动，并多元化能源来源。”他呼吁各国多元化供应商，并提前启动长期合同的谈判。
“Southeast Asian countries reliant on Indonesian gas will need to strengthen supplier engagement and diversify their energy sources,” he said, urging states to vary suppliers and start early negotiations for long-term contracts.
Nian 警告称，Bahlil 的言论有可能为能源出口设定前提条件树立先例。
Nian cautioned that Bahlil’s remarks risked setting the precedent of attaching prerequisites to energy exports.
周四，这位部长表示，印尼仍然愿意与把印尼视为平等伙伴的国家达成能源出口协议，即便这些国家目前没有与雅加达签订现有合同。
On Thursday, the minister said Indonesia remained open tog energy export agreements with countries that treated it as an equal, even if they did not have existing contracts with Jakarta.
Nian 说：“印尼完全有权优先保障国内能源安全，最大化自然资源的经济效益。但将能源出口与政治‘尊重’挂钩，超出了合法资源民族主义的范畴，并引发了将战略资源武器化的令人担忧的前景。”观察人士认为，尽管印尼的警告不太可能阻碍东盟电网等地区框架的进展，但它们凸显了建立更强有力争端解决机制的必要性。
“Indonesia has every right to prioritise domestic energy security and maximise the economic benefits of its natural resources,” Nian said. “But making energy exports conditional on political ‘respect’ goes beyond legitimate resource nationalism and raises the troubling prospect of weaponising strategic resources.”Observers say while Indonesia’s warnings are unlikely to hinder progress on regional frameworks such as the Asean Power Grid, they highlight the need for stronger dispute resolution mechanisms.
区域电网最早于1997年提出构想，旨在通过陆上和海底连接线，将所有11个成员国的电力网络互联互通。预计这将提振出口国经济，同时增强进口国的能源安全。
The regional grid, first conceptualised in 1997, aims to connect the electricity networks of all 11 member states through overland and undersea links. It is expected to boost the economy of exporters while strengthening the energy security of those who receive the supply.
“电网的基本前提依然稳固，”马蒂努斯说。“在这种安排下，每个人都应受益。”
“The fundamental premise of the power grid remains strong,” Martinus said. “Under such arrangements, everyone should benefit.”
但尼安表示，雅加达的警告可能阻碍区域电网的推进，而这需要大量投资和长期的相互信任。“出于政治动机的供电中断前景，可能增加投资风险、融资成本，并导致对更深层次区域能源一体化产生犹豫。”米尔扎说，这一事件凸显了长期协议、持续对话以及区域争端解决机制的必要性，以应对电力贸易中可能出现的分歧。
But Nian said Jakarta’s warnings risked impeding the advancement of the regional grid, which required substantial investment and mutual confidence in the long term. “The prospect of politically motivated supply disruptions could increase investment risks, financing costs and hesitation over deeper regional energy integration.”Mirza said the incident highlighted the need for long-term agreements, continued dialogue and a regional dispute resolution mechanism to address potential disagreements over electricity trade.
根据东盟电力中心的数据，电网建设取得渐进式进展——18个规划互联项目中，仅有8个在2024年投入运行——但成员国领导人似乎正将其提上更重要的议程。5月的东盟峰会设定了新目标，力争到2045年在所有成员国实现全面运行。
The grid has seen gradual progress – only eight of 18 planned interconnection projects were operational in 2024, according to the Asean Power Centre – but leaders of member states seem to be pushing it up the agenda list. The Asean summit in May set out a new target of full operationalisation across all member states by 2045.
迪尼塔相信，电网谈判将照常继续。“只要印度尼西亚能获益，无论是来自电力出口还是输电线路过路费，谈判就会继续，”她说。
Dinita was confident that discussions on the power grid would continue as usual. “As long as Indonesia stands to benefit, be it from electricity exports or toll rates for transmission lines, negotiations will continue,” she said.