SINGAPORE: Recent remarks by current and former Indonesian political figures targeting neighbouring countries amid the transboundary haze appear to be driven by “domestic political frustrations” and posturing rather than signalling a shift in Indonesia’s approach towards its neighbours, analysts said.

They noted that Singapore and Malaysia have avoided directing criticism at Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto, even as some political figures including a member of his Cabinet, make pointed comments amid tensions over transboundary haze blanketing parts of the region.

“While Indonesia may not yet be in the throes of a full-blown economic crisis, its people are already feeling the pinch. They are in need of answers to the hardships they face,” said Mr Made Supriatma, a visiting fellow with the Indonesia Studies Programme at Singapore-based think tank ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute.

Ramping up rhetoric by casting its neighbours as partially responsible “serves as an easy way for politicians to evade their own accountability”, he added.

Ms Julia Lau, principal fellow and coordinator of the Indonesia Studies Programme at ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute, said such posturing was not new, pointing to a “long-standing tactic” among Indonesian politicians to invoke nationalist sentiment during times of domestic difficulties.

In recent days, there has been sharp rhetoric from prominent Indonesian figures over energy supplies and allegations of market manipulation.

Indonesia’s Coordinating Minister for Downstreaming and Energy Transition Bahlil Lahadalia on Thursday (Oct 22) had raised the possibility of not renewing gas export contracts to neighbouring countries, though he did not name these countries.

“Regarding our energy security, I will review contracts with other countries that are uncooperative and do not show mutual respect in their relations with us,” he said at an event, as quoted by CNBC Indonesia.

“I will not hesitate to consider stopping exports to countries that do not respect Indonesia.”Separately, former trade minister Muhammad Lutfi had earlier alleged Singapore’s state investors Temasek and GIC of attempting to pressure global index provider MSCI into downgrading Indonesia’s stock market.

Both Temasek and GIC have denied the allegations Mr Lutfi served as trade minister under former president Joko Widodo until 2022. In 2023, he was questioned by Indonesian prosecutors over a corruption scandal involving the fraudulent issuance of crude palm oil export permits.

The claims against Temasek and GIC are part of a series of videos that Mr Lutfi posted on social media in recent days taking aim at Singapore and Malaysia. In other videos, he addressed Singapore’s Minister for Sustainability and the Environment Grace Fu, questioning whether she would take enforcement action against Singapore-listed firms.

A “RALLYING CRY” FOR DOMESTIC CONSUMPTION Analysts told CNA that the remarks by the Indonesian politicians should be viewed in the context of the country’s domestic political and economic pressures. They cautioned against reading too much into the criticism targeted at Singapore.

“The fiery and many times negative rhetoric is best read as aimed at a domestic audience for the countries involved, especially in Indonesia where resource nationalism is a popular cause,” said Mr Muhammad Garda Ramadhito, associate research fellow at the S Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS).

Mr Made from ISEAS added: “(The comments) are a form of political posturing by these politicians.”“These seemingly anti-foreign statements are intended for domestic consumption, serving as a rallying cry,” he told CNA.

Associate Professor Chong Ja Ian of the National University of Singapore (NUS) political science department similarly pointed to broader frustrations within Indonesia, noting that Singapore was “not the only focus of ire among Indonesia’s politicians”.

“Malaysian politicians, companies, and other Indonesian political figures have also come in for criticism in Indonesia,” he noted, highlighting Mr Lutfi’s criticism of Malaysia’s Muar Member of Parliament Syed Saddiq Abdul Rahman.

Speaking in parliament during a debate on Malaysia’s 2027 Budget on Oct 13, Mr Syed Saddiq had called on his government to rally ASEAN countries to exert diplomatic pressure over the haze and to treat Indonesia as an “outcast”.

In a video posted on Instagram on Oct 20, Mr Lutfi said Mr Syed Saddiq was overlooking the role of Malaysian companies operating in Indonesia’s plantation sector.

“I’m disturbed when my entire country is ridiculed by politicians just to score cheap points in parliament,” said Mr Lutfi.

Mr Made said that such rhetoric is being driven by mounting economic pressures in Indonesia, where people are increasingly “feeling the pinch” of difficult economic conditions.

Directing criticism towards neighbouring countries could also be seen as a way for political figures to appeal to domestic audiences and divert attention from the country’s economic challenges, he added.

Analysts also said that the comments made by Mr Lutfi and Mr Bahlil did not reflect the broader position of Prabowo’s administration, saying that the government’s conduct has been “more conciliatory”.

Mr Ramadhito of RSIS pointed to Mr Prabowo’s call with Malaysia Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim in early October, during which the Indonesian president agreed to take action over the worsening haze.

“Prabowo himself has not endorsed these remarks (slamming Singapore and Malaysia)” he added.

Other establishment figures in Indonesia have also adopted a more collaborative tone towards Singapore and Malaysia.

Former Indonesian deputy foreign minister Dino Patti Djalal had described Singapore as a country with “goodwill, trust and a proven track record of cooperation with Indonesia”.

Without naming Mr Lufti, Mr Dino added that any claim that Singapore was conspiring against Indonesia’s equity market “doesn’t make sense”, pointing to the island nation’s substantial investments in Indonesia on top of its assistance during past crises such as natural disasters and COVID-19.

Mr Dino said: “Singapore has a vital interest in Indonesia’s political and economic stability because it is one of the countries most affected whenever political and economic turmoil occurs in our country.

“As a small country geographically squeezed between Indonesia and Malaysia, it is taboo and forbidden for Singapore's political elite to conspire to harm Indonesia. Just as it is taboo and forbidden for Indonesia to harm Singapore." Mr Dino stated that Singapore’s policy towards Indonesia is always to maintain cooperation and mutual trust and “not to carry out malicious acts and sabotage”.

“We often speak of ‘a thousand friends are too few, one enemy is too many’. It would be highly contradictory if we treated our closest neighbour Singapore as an adversary and with deep suspicion,” he said.

Mr Dino’s comments reflected an interest among Indonesia’s foreign policy professionals to maintain stable bilateral ties, said Mr Ramadhito.

Ms Lau also said Singapore and other countries had offered assistance to Indonesia to tackle the haze, even as nationalist sentiment complicated efforts to address the crisis.

ECONOMIC REALITY VERSUS POLITICAL RHETORIC Mr Made said the political rhetoric over ending gas exports to Singapore did not necessarily reflect the economic realities Indonesia would ultimately face.

He noted that under Mr Prabowo’s administration, Indonesia has prioritised gas for domestic use particularly to support its downstream industrial development programme.

Downstreaming is the government’s attempt to prevent export of Indonesia’s raw materials and instead create higher-value products locally before exporting them.

Downstreaming presupposes industrial growth, said Mr Made, giving an example of how nickel downstreaming relies heavily on the presence of industries capable of absorbing nickel-derived products, alongside demand from abroad.

Mr Made questioned whether Indonesia’s downstreaming programme could generate sufficient demand for the gas amid a sluggish global economy and domestic economic strain.

“If downstreaming fails to materialise, domestic demand for gas will naturally decline. In that case, would terminating the contract with Singapore actually be advantageous?” he asked.

Mr Ramadhito of RSIS noted that Singapore's natural gas sources are well diversified, while Indonesia also faces economic risks in reducing exports.

“Rerouting exports domestically can widen the budget deficit, as gas sold at lower domestic prices reduces revenue for Pertamina, which is already under strain because subsidies keep energy prices artificially low during the Iran war,” he said. Pertamina is Indonesia’s state-owned oil and natural gas conglomerate.

He highlighted that economic nationalism is an ideology the Prabowo administration has espoused, through sovereign investment fund Danantara and the re-routing of commodity exports to state-owned firms such as Danantara Sumberdaya Indonesia (DSI).

DSI is a part of the administration’s plan to centralise exports of key commodities such as coal, palm oil and ferroalloy to tackle concerns about under-invoicing and transfer pricing.

“These remarks should be read in that context. The haze issue simply inflamed nationalist tendencies in a government that believes the economy is too exposed to foreign capital and interests,” said Mr Ramadhito.

COLLABORATION BETTER FOR ALL In reality, Indonesia remains dependent on Singapore in some areas, particularly for fuel imports despite long-standing plans to change this, said Mr Made. There has only been a shift in rhetoric, designed purely for domestic political consumption, he said.

“I suspect that every politician – perhaps even Prabowo himself – knows that this rhetoric is more fallacious than it is truthful. Yet, they keep this ‘victim’ and ‘survival mode’ narrative alive because it offers the easiest and most efficient way to explain the hardships faced by the Indonesian people,” he said.

Such a narrative will not cease anytime soon, he added, noting that such finger-pointing is applied selectively and strategically.

“Nevertheless, Indonesian politicians are also fully aware that they must not overplay this narrative. They need to know their boundaries,” said Mr Made.

Mr Ramadhito noted that Singapore and Malaysia's leaders have so far signalled a preference for quiet diplomacy and direct, legal pressure on firms over public rebuke, in keeping with ASEAN's non-interference norms.

For instance, PM Anwar phoned Mr Prabowo personally and framed it as cooperation, while Singapore’s Coordinating Minister for National Security K Shanmugam thanked the Prabowo administration for its “unprecedented” efforts in tackling the haze issue.

“Both leaders face frustrated publics but have little leverage over Jakarta, and sovereignty-laden criticism risks an Indonesian nationalist backlash. It is very counterproductive to cause the Indonesian president or in fact any president to lose face,” he said.

Echoing Indonesian former deputy foreign minister Dino’s call to build trust and foster collaboration for mutual progress, Mr Made said all differences can be addressed through negotiation. “Confrontational rhetoric is entirely unproductive. It is bad for all parties involved,” he said.