你会放心把银行账户信息交给一个AI智能体，让它不经你同意就调动你的资金吗？在银行业从业近四十年的顶级银行分析师杰拉德·卡西迪经常向客户、投资者和消费者提出这个问题。他告诉CNBC，几乎所有人的回答都一样。不会。“风险太大了，”加拿大皇家银行的卡西迪说。然而，这正是华尔街日益加剧的担忧的核心所在：人工智能是否会颠覆银行业。
Would you trust an AI agent with your bank account information and let it move your money without asking you first? Gerard Cassidy, a top banking analyst with nearly four decades in the business, frequently poses that question to clients, investors, and consumers. He told CNBC that nearly everyone gives the same answer. No. "It's just too risky," offered Cassidy of RBC Capital Markets. Still, it's at the heart of growing concern on Wall Street over whether artificial intelligence could upend the banking industry.
随着近期各类智能体大量涌现，并且能够像买毛衣一样比价寻找收益更高的投资产品，金融类股票已受到冲击。智能体自动化威胁到该行业的一大优势：客户因为寻找更好替代方案太费时费力，而把钱留在原处。这场争论在最新的银行财报季中成为焦点，高管们反驳了AI智能体可能从根本上改变消费者理财方式的说法。
With the recent proliferation of agents and their ability to comparison shop for higher-yielding investments (just like buying a sweater), financial stocks have taken a hit. Agent-automation threatens one of the industry's biggest advantages: customers who leave their money where it is because it takes too much time and effort to find better alternatives. The debate has taken center stage during the latest bank earnings season, with executives pushing back on the notion that AI agents could fundamentally change how consumers manage their money.
目前，AI智能体按理说还不具备在各银行之间独立转移存款的能力。这与AI辅助购物有着关键区别——在AI辅助购物中，经过事先授权的智能体可以完成购买。尽管据Axios和其他媒体报道，已有一些智能体访问银行账户的案例，但智能体研究金融产品、进行比较并将建议反馈给用户的能力，已在金融行业引发寒意。Meta Platforms于9月8日推出其大受欢迎的Muse个人智能体后，AI驱动银行业颠覆的前景骤然升温。
AI agents are not supposed to be capable, yet, of independently moving deposits between banks. That's a key distinction from AI-assisted shopping, where agents with prior authorization can complete purchases. While there have been some reports of agents accessing bank accounts, according to Axios and other media publications, the ability of agents to research financial products, run comparisons, and report back recommendations to their users has sent a chill through the financial industry. The prospect of AI-driven banking disruption kicked into high gear after Meta Platforms launched its wildly popular Muse personal agent on Sept. 8.
自那以后，被视为易受冲击的公司的股价截至周三收盘大幅下跌，例如美国银行（下跌18%）、富国银行（下跌6%）、摩根大通（下跌5%）和嘉信理财（下跌14%）。
Since then, shares of companies seen as vulnerable, such as Bank of America (down 18%), Wells Fargo (down 6%), JPMorgan Chase (down 5%), and Charles Schwab (down 14%), were sharply lower through Wednesday's close.
导致金融股疲软的原因还有其他，包括美联储9月加息，以及市场对是否将面临长期加息周期的疑虑。但空中出现的颠覆性威胁当然从无益处。
There are other reasons for the weakness in financial stocks, including the Federal Reserve's September interest rate increase and questions about whether a prolonged hiking cycle awaits. But the threat of disruption in the air certainly never helps.
“信任、信任、还是信任” 资深银行业分析师迈克·梅奥同意卡西迪的观点，他在接受CNBC采访时表示，大多数消费者看重现有银行关系的便利性和安全性，胜过获得略高的收益率。“我非常坚定地认为，风险应被严肃对待，但被夸大了，”富国银行的梅奥辩称道。“银行业最重要的三个词是信任、信任、还是信任。”
'Trust, trust, and trust' Veteran banking analyst Mike Mayo agreed with Cassidy, telling CNBC most consumers value the convenience and security of their existing banking relationships more than earning slightly higher returns. "I'm very strongly in the camp that the risk should be taken seriously, but it's exaggerated," argued Mayo of Wells Fargo. "The three most important words in banking are trust, trust, and trust."
德勤的一项调查凸显了这种犹豫。调查发现，72%的银行客户不愿与生成式AI工具分享其财务信息，而仅有49%的人信任AI生成的银行业信息的准确性，相比之下，79%的人信任来自银行网站的信息。
A survey from Deloitte underscores that reluctance. It found that 72% of bank customers hesitate to share their financial information with generative AI tools, while just 49% trust the accuracy of AI-generated banking information, compared with 79% who trust information from bank websites.
查尔斯·施瓦布首席执行官里克·沃斯特表示，只有相对较少的客户试图通过未经授权的AI代理访问其账户。“虽然人们喜爱AI并大量使用它，但他们还没准备好把自己的财务生活交给AI，”沃斯特在财报后的采访中对CNBC表示。
Charles Schwab CEO Rick Wurster said relatively few clients are attempting to access their accounts through unauthorized AI agents. "While people love AI and they're using it heavily, they're not ready to turn their financial life over to AI," Wurster told CNBC in a post-earnings interview.
富国银行首席执行官查理·沙夫指出，客户早就能只需点击几下鼠标就把资金转入收益率更高的账户，但许多人选择原地不动。“认为这将导致大规模资金转向更高利率的替代品，我认为完全言过其实，尤其是在我们能预见的这段时间里，”沙夫在该行第三季度财报电话会上表示。
Wells Fargo CEO Charlie Scharf pointed out that customers have long been able to move their money into higher-yielding accounts with just a few clicks, yet many choose to stay put. "The idea that that's going to contribute to mass movement to higher-rate alternatives I think is completely overdone, especially for the time period we can see," Scharf said on the bank's third-quarter earnings call.
然而，对银行利润的潜在威胁是真实的。银行赚钱的部分来源是吸收存款，并将这些资金以更高利率贷出或投资。如果AI代理让客户更愿意转移储蓄，银行可能被迫支付更多利息以留住资金，从而挤压利润。
The potential threat to bank profits, however, is real. Banks make money partly by collecting deposits and lending or investing those funds at higher rates. If AI agents make customers more willing to move their savings, banks could be forced to pay more interest to keep that money, squeezing their profits.
并非所有账户都同样脆弱。分析师表示，支票账户受到的冲击较小，因为它们与日常支付挂钩；而储蓄账户的客户更关注获取更高收益，因此可能面临更大的竞争压力。对投资者而言，存款成本上升或存款增长放缓将是AI代理开始颠覆行业的预警信号。但第三季度财报并未显示出此类转变的明确迹象。“我不打算在短期内因AI代理对银行存款的威胁而调整我的盈利预测，”已覆盖银行业30年的梅奥表示。
Not all accounts would be equally vulnerable. Analysts said checking accounts are more insulated because they are tied to everyday payments, while savings accounts, where customers are more focused on earning higher yields, could face greater competition. For investors, rising deposit costs or slowing deposit growth would be warning signs that AI agents are beginning to disrupt the industry. But third-quarter earnings showed no clear evidence of such a shift. "I don't plan on changing my earnings estimates anytime soon due to the AI agent threat on bank deposits," said Mayo, who has been covering banks for 30 years.
摩根大通首席执行官杰米·戴蒙表示，该行正在阻断依赖客户共享凭证的外部代理。“我们不会允许任何外部代理随意进入公司内部，因为这对客户和摩根大通来说风险太大，”戴蒙在该行财报电话会上表示。卡西迪提出了另一个未解的问题：如果授权的AI代理错误地将资金转入错误账户且资金无法追回，责任由谁承担？
JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon said the bank is blocking external agents that rely on customers sharing their credentials. "We're not going to allow just any outside agents to come in inside the company because it's just too risky for clients and for JPMorgan," Dimon said during the bank's earnings call. Cassidy raised another unresolved issue: who would be responsible if an authorized AI agent mistakenly transferred money to the wrong account and the funds couldn't be recovered?
与已有成熟消费者保护机制的信用卡欺诈不同，自主代理犯错的责任归属仍不清晰。美国银行首席执行官布赖恩·莫伊尼汉同样强调了客户授权的必要性。“我们强烈认为，资金转出账户时应有人工在环节中进行授权，”他对CNBC表示。银行并未袖手旁观毋庸置疑，银行并未在该技术上置身事外。嘉信理财近期推出了名为Charley的自有AI助手，而摩根大通已启动其名为Smart Cash的自有AI工具的定向试点，旨在预测用户现金流并转移资金以实现收益最大化。
Unlike credit card fraud, where established consumer protections exist, responsibility for mistakes made by autonomous agents remains unclear. Bank of America CEO Brian Moynihan similarly emphasized the need for customer authorization. "We strongly believe there should be a human in the loop to authorize money moving out of your account," he told CNBC . Banks are not sitting still To be sure, banks aren't sitting out on the technology. Schwab recently launched its own AI assistant named Charley, while JPMorgan began a targeted pilot for its own AI tool called Smart Cash, which aims to predict a user's cash flow and move funds to maximize yield.
分析师认为，AI在提升员工生产力、强化欺诈防范、实现金融产品个性化以及降低成本方面蕴藏机遇。
Analysts see opportunities for AI to boost employee productivity, strengthen fraud prevention, personalize financial products and reduce costs.
这些利益可能有助于抵消存款竞争加剧给利润带来的任何长期压力。“银行是AI的受益者，而非AI的牺牲品，”梅奥说。他还看到了与之前技术进步的相似之处，包括网上银行和金融科技，这些技术让资金转移变得更容易，却并未引发一些投资者担心的大规模颠覆。“过去三十年里我见过这部电影，它从未像那些悲观预测那样演变，”他说。“我认为这一次也不会例外。”（吉姆·克雷默的慈善信托持有高盛、富国银行的多头头寸。）
Those benefits could help offset any longer-term pressure on profits from increased competition for deposits. "Banks are AI beneficiaries, not AI roadkill," Mayo said. He also sees parallels to previous technological advances, including online banking and fintech, which have made moving money easier without triggering the widespread disruption some investors feared. "I've seen this movie over the last three decades, and it has never played out the way the dire concern predicted," he said. "I think this time will be no different." (Jim Cramer's Charitable Trust is long GS, WFC. )