高盛对人工智能对就业市场影响的前景评估并不乐观，但该行给出了具体数字，量化了可能受到该技术冲击的人数。高盛经济学家更新了预测，估算随着企业转向利用人工智能驱动劳动力，将有多少工作岗位受到影响。在高盛的基准情景下——即美国及其他发达经济体生产率上升15%——该行预计多达9%的工人将被迫离开目前的岗位。
The outlook for AI's impact on the job market is dim, but Goldman Sachs put a number on just how many people could be impacted by the technology. Economists at Goldman updated their forecast for how many jobs could be impacted as companies turn to artificial intelligence to power their workforce. In Goldman's baseline scenario, which has productivity rising 15% in the US and other developed economies, the bank sees up to 9% of workers being displaced from their current roles.
去年，高盛首席经济学家扬·哈齐乌斯曾表示，人工智能可能导致6%至7%的美国工人被取代。今夏该行开始提出高达9%的置换率，这相当于约1500万工人将因人工智能而面临工作中断。报告补充称，就业市场还可能因人工智能采用导致整体招聘放缓而面临逆风，尽管对整体失业率的冲击更多可能来自直接的失业，而非招聘减少。
Last year, Goldmans' chief economist Jan Hatzius said AI could displace 6% to 7% of all US workers. The bank began to float a displacement rate as high as 9% as this summer, which would be equivalent to around 15 million workers who see their jobs disrupted by AI. The job market may also face headwinds from slower hiring overall because of AI adoption, though the hit to overall unemployment will likely be fueled more by outright job losses rather than less hiring, the report added.
“根据我们对明年接近潜在增长的基准预测，我们的估算表明，人工智能导致的劳动力中断很可能只会逐步加剧，而非造成突然的劳动力市场冲击，”哈齐乌斯在周四的一份报告中写道。美国目前仍处于人工智能采用的早期阶段。高盛估计，不足四分之一的企业已将人工智能纳入常规工作流程。哈齐乌斯表示，如果美国经济陷入衰退，人工智能采用可能会加速，他援引了该行对过往衰退期间自动化周期的分析。
"Under our baseline forecasts for near potential growth next year, our estimates suggest that AI labor disruption will likely only gradually increase rather than delivering an abrupt labor market shock," Hatzius wrote in a report on Thursday. The US is still in the early stages of AI adoption. Less than a quarter of firms have incorporated AI into regular workflows, Goldman estimates. Hatzius said AI adoption may speed up if the US economy were to enter an economic downturn, citing its analysis of past automation cycles during recessions.
“我们分析中一个更令人担忧的结论是，周期性放缓很可能会加速与人工智能相关的自动化和失业，从而放大更广泛的商业周期，”他写道。对人工智能导致失业的恐慌已略有缓解，但人工智能终将摧毁初级白领工作这一观点，仍是部分研究人员表达的担忧。
"A more concerning takeaway from our analysis is that a cyclical slowdown would likely accelerate AI-related automation and job losses, thereby amplifying the broader business cycle," he wrote. The panic about AI job losses has eased slightly, but the idea that AI could one day decimate entry-level white-collar work is still a fear voiced by some researchers.
9月份的裁员公告有所减少，但人工智能仍是被引用最多的裁员原因，占所有宣布裁员的21%。根据Challenger, Gray & Christmas的数据，科技行业的失业人数也超过其他任何行业，占上个月所有裁员的29%。
Layoff announcements ticked lower in September, but AI remains the top cited reason for job cuts, accounting for 21% of all announced layoffs. Job losses in the tech sector also outpace that of any other industry, accounting for 29% of all job cuts last month, according to the data from Challenger, Gray & Christmas.