在伊朗战争爆发前，卡塔尔曾是世界上最大的天然气出口国之一。仅仅八个月后，这个海湾国家如今正从其主要竞争对手——美国——购买天然气供应。
Before the Iran war, Qatar was one of the biggest natural gas exporters in the world. After only eight months, the Gulf state is now buying supplies from its principal competitor — the United States.
卡塔尔能源公司周四与美国出口商奇尼尔能源公司达成协议，将每年购买400万吨液化天然气（LNG），持续至2054年。采购价格挂钩美国亨利枢纽价格并加收固定费用。交付预计将于2030年代开始。
QatarEnergy struck a deal Thursday with U.S. exporter Cheniere Energy to buy 4 million metric tons of liquefied natural gas (LNG) annually through 2054. The purchase price is indexed to the U.S. Henry Hub price plus a fixed fee. Deliveries are expected to begin in the 2030s.
“我们期待从萨宾帕斯和科珀斯克里斯蒂两地可靠地向卡塔尔能源公司供应天然气，直至本世纪下半叶，”奇尼尔能源公司首席执行官杰克·富斯科在声明中表示。
"We look forward to reliably supplying QatarEnergy from both Sabine Pass and Corpus Christi into the second half of this century," Cheniere CEO Jack Fusco said in a statement.
多哈将购买的天然气不足全球液化天然气贸易量（超过4亿吨）的1%。但休斯顿拉皮丹能源公司全球天然气和液化天然气总监亚历克斯·芒顿表示：“就单笔交易而言，这在美国市场上几乎是最大规模的交易了。”
The gas that Doha will buy is less than 1% of the global LNG trade of more than 400 milion metric tons. But "in terms of an individual deal, this is about as big as you see in the U.S," said Alex Munton, director of global gas and LNG at Rapidan Energy in Houston.
这笔交易表明，伊朗战争正在重塑全球能源市场，使美国公司受益，巩固了美国液化天然气出口商的主导地位。自战争爆发以来，奇尼尔能源公司和另一家美国独立企业Venture Global的股价分别上涨了26%和40%。
The deal signals how the Iran war is reshaping global energy markets to the benefit of U.S. companies, cementing the dominance of American LNG exporters. Shares of Cheniere and Venture Global, the other independent U.S. player, have gained 26% and 40%, respectively, since the start of the war.
战争前，卡塔尔的液化天然气出口量仅次于美国。但自伊朗轰炸其位于拉斯拉凡的关键生产设施以来的八个月里，出货量已大幅下滑。袭击严重损坏了两条生产线，导致卡塔尔约17%的液化天然气出口产能瘫痪。
Qatar knocked out Qatar was second only to the U.S. in LNG exports before the war. But shipments have since collapsed in the eight months since Iran bombed its key production facility at Ras Laffan. The attack badly damaged two production lines, taking out about 17% of Qatar's LNG export capacity.
卡塔尔能源大臣萨阿德·谢里达·阿尔-卡比表示，修复拉斯拉凡的损毁大约需要三年时间。自3月袭击发生以来，这个波斯湾国家已连续每月宣布不可抗力——援引意外、不可控事件导致合同无法履行。
It will take about three years to repair the damage at Ras Laffan, Qatar's Energy Minister Saad Sherida Al-Kaabi has said. The Persian Gulf state has declared force majeure — citing unexpected, uncontrollable events preventing contracts from being honored — every month since the March attack.
“如果你愿意这么说的话，这确实给我们未来几年的生产能力造成了重大打击，”阿尔-卡比9月在联合国大会期间接受采访时表示。他说，卡塔尔目前出口“极少量”液化天然气（LNG），因为“我们无法通过霍尔木兹海峡出口”。
"It did give us a big blow, if you will, for our production capability for the next few years," Al-Kaabi said in an interview on the sidelines of the U.N. General Assembly in September. Qatar is exporting "very little" LNG right now because "we can't export through the Hormuz Strait," he said.
“极少数船只在穿越海峡，但数量极小，甚至不足以用百分点来衡量，”这位能源大臣说。
"Very sparingly, some ships are crossing the straits but a very small amount, it's not something that would even be measurable in a percentage point," the energy minister said.
航行自由 而在拉斯拉凡维修完成时，霍尔木兹的安全状况将如何，目前远未明朗。芒顿表示，与奇尼尔能源签订的长达数十年的合同表明，卡塔尔认为随着伊朗持续袭击油轮，霍尔木兹的航行自由可能永远无法恢复。
Freedom of navigation And it is far from clear what security conditions in Hormuz will look like when the repairs are done at Ras Laffan. The decades-long contract with Cheniere indicates that Qatar sees a risk that freedom of navigation will never return to Hormuz as Iran keeps attacking tankers, Munton said.
这位分析师表示，在液化天然气的情况下，寻找绕过霍尔木兹的途径更难，因为它从根本上说是一种水路运输产品。
It is harder to find ways to get around Hormuz in the case of LNG because it is fundamentally a waterborne product, the analyst said.
“它被液化后可以装上船，这需要通往海上航线的通道，”芒顿说。“它们必须通过霍尔木兹海峡。没有其他途径将液化天然气运往市场。它们就是被困住了。”芒顿表示，随着生产严重受损且霍尔木兹被封锁，卡塔尔能源公司正通过与奇尼尔能源的交易扩大其液化天然气贸易业务。
"It's liquefied so it can be put on a ship and that requires access to seaborne routes," Munton said. "They've got to access the Strait of Hormuz. There's no other way of getting LNG to market. They're just stuck." With its production badly damaged and Hormuz blocked off, QatarEnergy is expanding its LNG trading business through the Cheniere deal, Munton said.
瑞银分析师马纳夫·古普塔在周四致客户的报告中表示，卡塔尔能源公司本月初从中国银行获得了一笔30亿美元贷款，这可能使其能够获得更多美国液化天然气，以履行其国际交付承诺。
It secured a $3 billion loan earlier this month from Chinese banks that could allow it to secure more U.S. LNG to honor its international delivery commitments, said Manav Gupta, a UBS analyst, in a note to clients Thursday.
华尔街看好 例如，文图尔环球公司正与卡塔尔能源公司就每年供应300万吨液化天然气进行深度谈判，知情人士向路透社透露。
Bullish Wall Street Venture Global, for example, is in advanced talks with QatarEnergy to supply 3 million metric tons annually, unnamed sources told Reuters.
古普塔表示，通过与卡塔尔的交易，奇尼尔能源推翻了空头的观点，即该公司将难以获得增量销售，而这反过来又会限制产能扩张。瑞银给予奇尼尔能源340美元的目标股价，意味着较周四收盘价有18%的上涨空间。
With the Qatar deal, Cheniere is disproving the bears' case that it will struggle to secure incremental sales which would in turn constrain capacity expansion, Gupta said. UBS has a stock price target of $340 on Cheniere, implying 18% upside from Thursday's close.
华尔街对Cheniere和Venture Global普遍看好。覆盖Cheniere的股票分析师中，近90%给予“买入”评级，平均目标价为314美元，意味着较周四收盘价有约9%的上涨空间。
Wall Street is broadly bullish on both Cheniere and Venture Global. Nearly 90% of equity analysts who cover Cheniere rate it a buy, with an average price target of $314, implying about 9% upside from Thursday's close.
近60%的分析师建议买入Venture Global，其余给予“持有”评级。平均目标价17美元，较周四收盘价约有35%的上涨空间。
Nearly 60% of analysts recommend Venture Global as a buy with the rest rating it a hold. The average price target of $17 would amount to some 35% upside from Thursday's close.
“美国再次受到买家呼吁，以实现供应多元化，”Munton表示。“美国有如此多的项目在建，以至于现在美国在全球[液化天然气]市场份额中变得不成比例地大。”
"The U.S. once again is being called on by buyers to diversify supply," Munton said. "So much is under construction in the U.S. that you get to the point where now the U.S. is becoming disproportionately big in terms of global [LNG] market share."