Toronto residents may be poised to unseat Mayor Olivia Chow on Monday as she fights a close race with Brad Bradford, a moderate challenger who’s tapped into voter concerns about crime, congestion and affordability. By Monique Mulima Homicides and shootings in Canada’s financial capital are trending down. But after a series of recent high-profile shootings some residents still feel as if crime has gotten worse. The issue is “something that’s been top of mind for Torontonians for a couple of years now,” Zachary Spicer, a professor of public policy at York University, said in an interview.

That concern seems to be propelling city councilor Bradford, 40, slightly ahead of 69-year-old Chow, who became mayor in 2023.

A Mainstreet Research poll released Oct. 20 showed Bradford about a percentage point above Chow, within the margin of error. The same survey had 42% of voters saying crime was “very important” in motivating them to vote. Bradford was also ahead in a Liaison Strategies that called the race “too close to call.”Bradford, an urban planner who describes himself as a centrist, is campaigning on lower taxes — including cutting a key housing levy — adding police to transit stations and reducing traffic congestion.

Bradford has also raised concerns about visible homelessness, pushing to have encampments near schools cleared as a city councilor.

His ads talk about the expense and fears of raising a family in Toronto, and often feature his wife and two daughters. (Mayoral candidates in the city don’t run under political parties.)“His campaign has been around not being able to drive your car; it’s been around the danger posed by homeless people,” said Alison Kemper, a business professor at Toronto Metropolitan University.

“I think there are two very distinct visions for what Toronto will look like in the future,” Bradford told Bloomberg News. “If you want the city to be safer, a little bit easier to get around — whether you’re in a car or on the transit system — and of course a city that’s affordable and competitive, then we have to choose change.”Spicer said Bradford’s message is resonating with the center-right particularly. The candidate’s endorsements include sitting Liberal lawmakers, former Conservative cabinet ministers, Shopify’s billionaire founder Tobi Lutke and its vice president of product, Mani Fazeli, who praised Bradford’s “fiscal prudence that stops runaway spending.”Geddy Lee, lead singer of the rock band Rush, also backs Bradford.

A common theme in their comments Toronto is heading in the wrong direction, and Bradford can change it.

Incumbent Chow, who declined to be interviewed, has been involved in progressive politics for decades and served as both a city councilor and a federal lawmaker for the New Democratic Party. During her three years as mayor, she’s raised property taxes, hired a chief congestion officer, extended library hours and introduced renter-friendly bylaws.

Her platform includes building more rental housing and continuing transit fare capping. She’s also taken a page from New York Mayor Zohran Mamdani’s playbook, backing a successful city council motion in March to establish a pilot project to open four city-operated grocery stores, which Bradford voted against. Chow has also pledged to provide free school lunch for every child in the city, an initiative that would require buy-in from other levels of government.

“I think, at the end of the day, we’re going to see the polls in wealthy neighborhoods lead mostly Bradford and the polls in rental, low-income neighborhoods, mostly Chow,” Kemper said. That’s not to say all business leaders are opposed to Chow.

“During this trade war, the mayor has been a very strong voice in defending the GTA and southern Ontario’s automotive sector,” Flavio Volpe, president of the Automotive Parts Manufacturers’ Association, said in an interview. “She sets a positive tone and she talks about the city as someone who is embracing it rather than someone who is criticizing it and characterizing it as broken.”In addition to Volpe, Chow is backed by several Toronto-area lawmakers, labor unions and another musician, Blue Rodeo singer Jim Cuddy.

Ford Factor Despite being on opposite ends of the political spectrum, Chow has the respect of Ontario Premier Doug Ford, brother of infamous former Mayor Rob Ford, and once a mayoral hopeful himself. In September, the Conservative leader told reporters that “we’re going to continue supporting the mayor. She’s doing an incredible job, so read between the lines.”He later said this wasn’t an endorsement.

“The premier and the Ford family are, in general, a presence in Toronto politics,” Spicer said. “I think the mayor has a credible case to say that she’s worked well with him on a number of files.”But Ford exerts significant influence on his hometown. He nearly halved the size of city council after taking office in 2018 and has intervened on several local files in the ensuing years, most recently cycling infrastructure. Earlier this month the province began removing bike lanes in the city’s west end, against Chow’s wishes.

It’s a divisive issue, especially amid congestion concerns: 74% of Chow voters support expanding bike lanes in the city, while the same portion of Bradford voters oppose the initiative, according to a Nanos Research released Oct. 15. Bradford has promised to remove certain bike lanes that he says are underused, but protect the rest.

The city’s budget has also been a point of contention, with Bradford calling for a line-by-line review to find ways to cut costs. Municipalities are legally unable to run deficits.

“In an organization that employs 64,000 people with a budget of nearly C$20 billion, I just can’t believe that we couldn’t find half a percentage of savings,” he said.

Chow’s team said in an email that the mayor identified C$135 million in reductions in 2026, adding that the city reviews the budget “line-by-line every year to find savings.”There are 51 other candidates on the ballot – including another person with the last name Chow – but Olivia Chow and Bradford hold a combined 96% of decided voter support, according to Nanos Research polling.

“There’s absolutely a clear choice,” said Nik Nanos, chief data scientist at Nanos Research. “People can decide whether they want to continue with Olivia Chow or if they believe that there should be change at Toronto City Hall, they can opt for Brad Bradford.”