A February study found 99,000 Israelis left the country in 2023 and 2024 Sitting at his desk in a sun-filled apartment in Tel Aviv, economist Itai Ater pored over data that shows more Israelis have left the country over the past three years than ever before.

Those have been tumultuous years for the country of around 10 million people, with war, economic uncertainty and a prime minister plagued by corruption charges whose trial started in 2020 and still hasn't reached a verdict.

Ater, a professor at the Coller School of Management at Tel Aviv University, says these departures could accelerate depending on the outcome of next week's legislative elections, destabilizing the country's economy and causing ripple effects throughout the region.

"Israelis are thinking, 'do I want to raise my kids in a country like this?'" Ater said. "Unfortunately, and I understand, I sympathize with their answers, many of them realize that the answer is no.

And that's why they're leaving." In February, Ater and his colleagues published a study using data collected from the Central Bureau of Statistics that found 99,000 Israelis left the country between January 2023 and December 2024.

The study looked at Israelis who left for at least three consecutive months and stayed out of the country for more than 270 days during the first year of their departure. Ater says he understands why people might want to leave: 'Israelis are thinking, "do I want to raise my kids in a country like this?"' (Luke Wolagiewicz/CBC) According to the data, 50,000 left in 2023, a year that saw Hamas militants storm southern Israel, killing roughly 1,200 people and kidnapping another 250. Israel responded by embarking on a devastating military campaign in the Gaza Strip that continued until a fragile ceasefire went into effect in October 2025, though Israel still controls roughly 60 per cent of the enclave and engages in regular military activity there.

In 2024, 49,000 left. Ater says preliminary data shows the trend continued in 2025, and he believes the looming election could push those numbers even higher in 2026.

Election fuels uncertainty Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who has been a defining figure in Israeli politics for the past three decades and is by far the country's longest serving leader, is once again vying for power.

Polls suggest his far-right bloc will fall short of the requisite 61 seats in the Knesset to form a government and that a rival bloc headed by Gadi Eisenkot, the leader of the Yashar party, is currently in position to secure the most seats. As of now, Eisenkot's coalition is expected to be short of a majority.

Analysis Netanyahu's future uncertain as Israel starts to prepare for national election Netanyahu faces fresh allegations he ignored warnings about Oct. 7 — right before an election Israel's multiparty system, in which coalitions are often required in order to form a government, means the election results are often only just the beginning of the intrigue and lead to a jostling of parties and power in the days after the vote. Netanyahu has long been considered a master at this process.

A supporter of Benjamin Netanyahu, leader of the Likud party, displays a flag depicting him at Mahane Yehuda market, ahead of Israel's national election, in Jerusalem on Oct. 22.

"We are really, really, really terrified in the sense that if there is no change in the patterns, then there's no change in October in the elections," Ater said. "These [emigration] numbers will go up dramatically." Avigail Ben-Porat, 50, said she dreams of leaving but doesn't have the resources to do so. The single mother lives in Kiryat Shmona, near the Israel-Lebanon border, where she said she still regularly hears the sound of rocket fire. "I would go and never look back," Ben-Porat said.

"Most of my friends are living abroad, some of them in Portugal, some of them moved to Canada. Some of them are in Thailand and in Goa in India. They pretty much left and fled." Economic impact It's not just the volume of people leaving that has Ater and others concerned — it's their jobs.

Ater's study suggests that 2023 and 2024 saw a dramatic increase in the number of doctors, Ph.D. holders and engineers leaving the country, with 2,360 net departures from Israeli engineers and 509 net departures from doctors.

"Israel's economy depends on the human capital," he said. "It's the tech industry, it's academia, it's health care. We need these best individuals to stay in Israel." Lawyer Liam Schwartz, seen in Tel Aviv in September, says many companies, under pressure from investors, are moving chunks of their business outside Israel. (Luke Wolagiewicz/CBC) Liam Schwartz oversees the corporate immigration department at Goldfarb, Gross, Seligman, an Israeli law firm based in Tel Aviv. He said Israeli companies are also eying the exit.

"There are a good deal of Israeli companies that are just — they call it business viability," Schwartz said. "They have to answer to their shareholders who are not necessarily Israeli and investors who are not necessarily Israeli and they are concerned about the viability of business operations based in Israel. So they are more willing to move chunks of their workforce to North America or to Europe." Schwartz believes the discontent started when the government proposed judicial reforms that would have stripped power away from the Supreme Court back in January 2023.

"People are just disappointed," he said. "They feel like the Israeli government is no longer meeting its part of the social contract." All of this adds up to making Tuesday's elections one of the country's most consequential.

"I think that the October elections in Israel are going to be a watershed moment in whether … the rate of Israeli emigration increases or not," Schwartz said. For Ater, the stakes could not be higher.

"I'm saying it. It's a strategic concern, strategic risk," he said. "To the future of Israel as a democracy, as a liberal country, and that's not only a concern for Israel, it's also a concern for the Middle East and also for the world."