在2月美以袭击伊朗引发战争爆发之前，海湾君主国正沉浸在令全世界艳羡的繁荣梦中。
Before the outbreak of the war triggered by the US-Israeli attack on Iran in February, the Gulf monarchies were living the prosperity dream that was the envy of the world.
其由碳氢化合物驱动的经济是光鲜亮丽的增长绿洲，免受了在过去几年里震动中东其他地区的加沙冲突的影响。
Their hydrocarbon-fuelled economies were glitzy oases of growth, inoculated from the conflict in Gaza that had rocked other parts of the Middle East for several years.
在数十年美国安全保障和亿万富翁酋长斡旋冲突的支撑下，沙特阿拉伯、阿拉伯联合酋长国和卡塔尔塑造了和平机遇之地的形象，并投入惊人的巨资用于经济多元化计划。
Underpinned by decades-old US security guarantees and conflict mediation by billionaire sheikhs, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Qatar cultivated images as peaceful lands of opportunity as they invested staggering amounts of money in economic diversification programmes.
在拥有数万亿美元、主要投向西方的主权财富基金支持下，海湾合作委员会（GCC）这些主要成员国启动了变革性计划，以在全球摆脱石油和天然气依赖的转型中重新定位其经济。其他三个海合会成员国——科威特、阿曼和巴林——也在进行类似的多元化举措。
Backed by sovereign wealth funds with trillions of dollars invested mostly in the West, these leading states of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) embarked on transformative programmes to reposition their economies amid the global transition away from oil and gas. Similar diversification initiatives were also happening in Kuwait, Oman and Bahrain, the other three GCC members.
分析人士指出，这种向长期经济稳定转变，对于海湾君主制在日益壮大的年轻人口心目中维持政治合法性至关重要，尤其是在公众对加沙大屠杀的愤怒不断升级之际。
Such a shift towards long-term economic stability is important in maintaining the political legitimacy of the Gulf monarchies in the eyes of their burgeoning young populations, especially amid mounting public anger at the carnage in Gaza, according to analysts.
海合会国家以及巴基斯坦、土耳其等其他穆斯林占多数的政府，最终说服美国总统唐纳德·特朗普于2025年10月结束加沙战争，重燃了人们对海湾经济的乐观情绪。
The GCC states, as well as other Muslim-majority governments such as Pakistan and Turkey, eventually persuaded US President Donald Trump to end the Gaza war in October 2025, renewing optimism about the Gulf economies.
然而，加沙停火后不久，一切都变了，以色列总理本雅明·内塔尼亚胡设法说服特朗普对伊朗发动战争。
However, everything changed soon after the Gaza ceasefire, when Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu managed to convince Trump to go to war against Iran.
伊朗不仅对以色列进行报复，还将怒火发泄到海合会国家身上，袭击能源基础设施、机场以及穿越霍尔木兹海峡的船只。
Rather than just retaliating against Israel, Iran has also vented its fury against the GCC states, attacking energy infrastructure, airports and ships sailing through the Strait of Hormuz.
随着特朗普权衡各种选项，包括在11月5日国会中期选举后进一步升级军事行动，或以一种在政治上无法定性的方式结束与伊朗的战争，海湾地区笼罩在不确定性之中。
With Trump weighing his options, including both another military escalation and a politically inconclusive end to the war with Iran after midterm congressional elections on November 5, uncertainty reigns in the Gulf region.
上个月沙特阿拉伯与德黑兰支持的也门胡塞武装盟友之间爆发战争，加剧了这些焦虑。
The eruption of war between Saudi Arabia and Tehran’s Houthi rebel allies in Yemen last month has exacerbated these anxieties.
出于必要，海合会各国政府推出了稳定经济的计划。该集团最大的两个经济体——沙特阿拉伯和阿联酋——因伊朗战争而濒临潜在的技术性衰退，而卡塔尔已陷入衰退。
Driven by necessity, GCC governments have unveiled plans to stabilise their economies. The two largest in the bloc – Saudi Arabia and the UAE – are on the verge of a potential technical recession caused by the Iran war, while Qatar is already in a recession.
今年第二季度，海合会最大经济体沙特阿拉伯的经济较第一季度的3%增长下滑了4.8%。作为海湾物流枢纽的阿联酋经济，在同一时期较3%的扩张下降了2.1%。
In the second quarter of this year, Saudi Arabia’s economy – the largest in the GCC – fell by 4.8 per cent from 3 per cent growth in the first quarter. The UAE’s economy – the Gulf’s logistical hub – decreased by 2.1 per cent from an expansion of 3 per cent over the same period.
卡塔尔的经济前景恶化，其国内生产总值（GDP）第二季度下降15.7%，降幅较第一季度的7%加速扩大。
Qatar’s economic outlook worsened, with its GDP declining by 15.7 per cent in the second quarter, accelerating from a drop of 7 per cent in the first quarter.
根据国际货币基金组织（IMF）10月13日发布的预测，阿联酋预计2026年GDP将下降3.9%，而战前预测为增长3.1%；沙特阿拉伯预计今年将下降3.3%，早前预测为增长4.6%。
According to the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) projections published on October 13, the UAE is expected to record a 3.9 per cent drop in its GDP in 2026 from a pre-war forecast of 3.1 per cent growth, while Saudi Arabia is projected to fall by 3.3 per cent this year from an earlier predicted 4.6 per cent growth.
巴林、科威特和卡塔尔预计将在2026年录得两位数的GDP收缩。
Bahrain, Kuwait and Qatar are set to record double-digit GDP contractions in 2026.
与国际货币基金组织一样，世界银行预测，如果敌对行动在今年结束，且霍尔木兹海峡明年3月前恢复畅通无阻的通行，海合会经济体将在2027年反弹。
Like the IMF, the World Bank has forecast the GCC economies to rebound in 2027 if hostilities end this year and unhindered passage through the Strait of Hormuz is restored by next March.
国际货币基金组织海合会部前主任蒂姆·卡伦预计，海湾国家将加快其经济多元化计划。
Tim Callen, a former chief of the IMF’s GCC division, expected the Gulf states to step up their economic diversification plans.
卡伦表示，新产业的发展将在一些调整下推进，包括“新的重点在于使能源和交通基础设施多元化并加强保护”。
The development of new industries would move ahead with some adjustments, including “a new focus on diversifying and better protecting energy and transport infrastructure”, Callen said.
哥伦比亚大学全球能源政策中心驻纽约高级研究学者凯伦·杨表示，海湾国家政府将继续优先投资天然气生产及其液化出口，以及海外此类资产的收购。
Karen Young, a senior research scholar at Columbia University’s Centre on Global Energy Policy in New York, said Gulf governments would continue to prioritise investments in natural gas production and its export in liquefied form, as well as the acquisition of such assets overseas.
它们还将聚焦于其他“关键”领域，如更本地化的国防制造、人工智能及其他技术。
They would also focus on other “essential” areas such as more localised defence manufacturing, AI and other technologies.
杨说，海湾合作委员会（GCC）成员国电力部门的多元化发展——纳入核能和可再生能源——将对振兴其经济至关重要，而旅游等其他行业可能继续承受压力。
Young said the diversification of the power sector in the GCC to include nuclear and renewables would be crucial to reviving its economies, while other sectors like tourism could continue to come under pressure.
据分析人士称，沙特阿拉伯公共投资基金、阿联酋L’imad基金和阿曼投资局等主权财富基金，将提供让海湾经济重回正轨所需的大部分资金和动力。
Sovereign wealth funds like Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund, the UAE’s L’imad and the Oman Investment Authority would provide much of the funding and impetus needed to get the Gulf economies back on track, according to analysts.
巴黎咨询公司Polisphere Advisory创始人罗伯特·莫吉尔尼基表示：“这些基金已显示出在国内发挥更大作用的倾向。但这些基金无法独自完成一切。”
“Those funds have already demonstrated a propensity to play a greater domestic role. But these funds can’t do it all alone,” said Robert Mogielnicki, founder of Paris-based Polisphere Advisory.
莫吉尔尼基说，由于振兴和发展海合会经济需要巨额投资，外国合作伙伴的参与将至关重要。
The involvement of foreign partners would be critical because of the considerable investments that would be needed to revive and grow the GCC economies, Mogielnicki said.
分析人士预测，作为经济转型的一部分，海合会成员国将在未来几年斥资数千亿美元，扩建各主要领域的基础设施。
Analysts predict GCC members will spend hundreds of billions of dollars to expand infrastructure across major sectors in the coming years as part of their economic transformation.
其中一项举措是计划中的跨海合会输油管道，旨在绕过霍尔木兹海峡，由全部六个成员国共同出资；莱斯大学贝克公共政策研究所今年早些时候发布的一份报告估计，该项目成本将达550亿美元。
One such initiative is a planned cross-GCC oil pipeline bypassing the Strait of Hormuz to be co-funded by all six members, which a report published by Rice University’s Baker Institute for Public Policy estimated earlier this year to cost US$55 billion.
香港最大贷款机构汇丰银行最近预测，阿联酋正在进行的基础设施项目价值达1900亿美元。
HSBC, Hong Kong’s biggest lender, recently projected the value of ongoing infrastructure projects in the UAE at US$190 billion.
迪拜政府——该国七个酋长国之一及其商业中心——于10月13日宣布了一项价值5720亿美元的项目管线，其中包括一个大型新卫星城和世界最大机场的建设。
The government of Dubai – one of the country’s seven emirates and its business centre – announced a US$572 billion pipeline of projects on October 13, including a massive new suburb and the construction of the world’s biggest airport.
莫格涅利茨基表示，海合会雄心勃勃的基础设施推进计划既昂贵又复杂。“目前，大多数海湾政府认为有充分理由支付这笔代价。”卡伦表示，尽管有这些举措，外国投资者对海合会经济体的信心是否能在短期内恢复，目前远未可知。
Mognielicki said the GCC’s ambitious infrastructure roll-out was both expensive and complex. “For the moment, most Gulf governments see a compelling justification for paying the price.”Callen said that despite these undertakings, it was far from certain whether the confidence of foreign investors in the GCC economies could rebound any time soon.
据卡伦称，投资者将评估战后对海湾国家能源及非石油商品和服务的需求，以及其旅游、会展、物流和航空领域的前景。
Investors would be assessing the post-war demand for both energy and non-oil goods and services from the Gulf states, as well as the outlook of their tourism, conference, logistics and aviation sectors, according to Callen.
他说：“这是一个非常复杂的战略项目，既因为摆脱对石油的依赖本身就极其困难，现在又叠加了地区不确定性。”
“This is a very complex strategic project both because diversifying away from oil is anyway extremely difficult and to add to that now is the regional uncertainty,” he said.