
财政大臣约翰·希利可能需要筹集资金以扩大其财政缓冲空间——BBC核查组审视可能摆上台面的选项。文/朱本在这份预算案中,我们很可能会听到很多关于财政大臣“缓冲空间”的讨论。
Chancellor John Healey may need to raise money to boost his fiscal headroom - BBC Verify examines what options could be on the table. By Ben Chu We're likely to hear a lot about the chancellor's "headroom" in this Budget.
这是指政府为帮助满足自身财政规则并减少借贷而预留的现金缓冲。
That is the cash buffer the government has to help meet its own fiscal rules and reduce borrowing.
经济学家认为,过去六个月里,这一缓冲可能已减半,从约240亿英镑降至低至110亿英镑,部分原因是政府向私人投资者借款所支付的利率上升。
Economists think the buffer might have halved in the last six months from around £24bn to as low as £11bn, in part because of rising interest rates the government has been paying to borrow money from private investors.
财政大臣约翰·希利可能需要筹集资金以恢复这一缓冲,这将表明政府到本届议会结束时减少借贷的计划仍按轨道推进。
The Chancellor, John Healey, might need to raise money to restore it, which would show the government's plan to reduce borrowing by the end of this Parliament is still on track.
与此同时,他面临压力,需寻找资金帮助民众应对不断上涨的生活成本,并为国防开支提供资金。然而,工党2024年大选宣言承诺不提高所得税、增值税或国民保险的税率。
At the same time, he is under pressure to find money to help people with the rising cost of living and to fund spending on defence. However, Labour's 2024 election manifesto pledged not to raise the rates of income tax, VAT or National Insurance.
增加资本利得税或扩大豪宅税曾被提出作为可能选项,但随后据政府消息人士透露已被排除。
Increasing taxes on capital gains or extending the mansion tax had been raised as possible options but have since been ruled out by government sources.
BBC核查组梳理了财政大臣周三可能用来筹集更多资金的其他选项。
BBC Verify has looked at what other options could be on the table for the chancellor to raise some more money on Wednesday.
- 增加对银行的税收英国银行近年来利润上升,因为它们能够向借款人收取更高的利率。
- Increase taxes on banks Banks in the UK have seen profits rise in recent years because they have been able to charge people higher interest rates when borrowing money.
银行界高管普遍认为,财政大臣正准备在本周的预算案中增加对银行的税收。
And there is widespread belief among bank bosses that the chancellor is preparing to raise taxes on banks in this week's Budget.
智库税务政策协会估计,将银行在公司税之上缴纳的附加税率从3%提高至5.5%,每年可能为国库带来10亿至20亿英镑的额外收入。更高的税收将初步减少银行可用于分配给股东的利润。
Think tank Tax Policy Associates estimates that increasing the surcharge that banks pay on corporation tax from 3% to 5.5% could potentially raise an additional £1bn to £2bn a year for the Treasury. A higher tax would initially reduce the profits that banks have to distribute to their shareholders.
部分股东将是富有的投资者。银行警告称,额外税收可能会阻碍他们在英国投资,从而可能减少就业岗位。
Some shareholders will be wealthy investors. The banks have warned that additional taxes could deter them from investing in the UK, which could reduce jobs.
普通储户也可能受到间接影响,如果他们的养老金投资包含银行股份的话。
And ordinary savers could be indirectly affected too, if their pension investments include bank shares.
研究表明,银行也可能通过提供更低的储蓄利率或更高的借贷成本,将部分税负转嫁给客户。
Banks could also pass some of the tax burden on to their customers by offering lower savings rates or higher borrowing costs, research suggests.
- 提高博彩机税收前首相戈登·布朗呼吁希利提高电子博彩机的税收——例如博彩店和成人游戏中心内的机器,单局派彩可达500英镑——理由是赌博成瘾造成的社会危害。
- Higher taxes on gambling machines Former prime minister Gordon Brown has called on Healey to hike the tax on electronic gaming machines - such as those found in betting shops and adult gaming centres which can offer payouts of £500 per game - citing the social harm imposed by problem gambling.
智库“社会市场基金会”(SMF)估计,将这些机器的税率从20%提高一倍至40%,可能带来2.75亿至4.6亿英镑的税收——具体取决于赌徒的反应。
The Social Market Foundation (SMF) think tank has estimated that doubling tax on these machines from 20% to 40% could raise could raise between £275m and £460m - depending on how gamblers reacted to it.
使用博彩机的人最终也可能通过游戏赔率变差而承担税负,尽管反赌博团体认为这有助于劝阻更多人使用这些机器。
People who use gambling machines could also end up having the tax passed on to them through worse odds on games, though anti-gambling groups argue this could help discourage more people from using them.
社会市场基金会的研究发现,博彩机日益集中在英国一些最贫困的商业街上,且四分之一在这些机器上玩赌场游戏的人处于有风险或有害的赌博水平。
Research from the SMF found that gambling machines are increasingly clustered on some of the UK's most deprived high streets, and that one in four people who play casino games on these machines gamble at risky or harmful levels.
博彩业界辩称,此类增税可能导致拥有并运营这些机器的博彩店因利润降低而倒闭。
The gambling industry has argued such a tax hike could cause betting shops, which own and operate the machines, to close down, by making them less profitable.
业界还辩称,博彩店倒闭可能会减少博彩公司对赛马业的资金投入,从而可能危及该行业的就业岗位。
It has also argued that betting shop closures could reduce the money bookmakers contribute to horse racing, potentially putting jobs in that industry at risk too.
- 让在线市场代征增值税据报道,财政大臣准备宣布,亚马逊、eBay和Temu等大型在线市场将被要求负责征收其平台上零售商应缴纳的税款。
- Get online marketplaces to collect VAT Reports suggest the Chancellor is preparing to announce that big online marketplaces such as Amazon, Ebay and Temu will be made responsible for collecting tax owed by retailers selling on their platforms.
财政部估计,每年因企业本应缴纳却未缴纳的增值税(VAT)而损失的税收约为120亿英镑,这被称为“增值税税收缺口”。
The Treasury estimates it is missing out on around £12bn a year in VAT revenues that should be paid by companies, which it calls the "VAT tax gap".
税务专家表示,问题的一部分——尽管并不占全部120亿英镑增值税缺口——在于部分在线卖家未遵守增值税规则,要么是在本应收取增值税时未收取,要么是已向客户收取增值税却未上缴政府。
Tax experts say that part of the problem - although not accounting for the full £12bn of the VAT gap - is that some online sellers fail to comply with VAT rules, either by not charging VAT when they should or by failing to pass on VAT collected from customers to the government.
执法难度较大,因为一些利用亚马逊等平台销售产品的企业总部设在海外,却虚假地将自己呈现为在英国设立的企业。
Enforcement can be difficult because some firms that use platforms like Amazon to sell their products are based overseas and falsely present themselves as UK-established businesses.
还有一些企业关门后又以不同公司名称重新开业,以逃避纳税义务。
Others close down and reopen under different company names to escape their tax liabilities.
据报道,这一举措将让大型在线市场负责代收税款——而非由个体零售商负责——这将打击这种形式的逃税行为,每年可能为政府带来约10亿英镑的额外增值税收入。
Reports suggest that this move to make big online marketplaces responsible for collecting the tax - rather than the individual retailers - would clamp down on this form of tax evasion and could raise around £1bn in extra VAT a year.
支持该举措的亚马逊估计,这每年可为政府带来7亿英镑的增值税收入。
Amazon, which supports the move, has estimated it could raise £700m a year in VAT for the government.
部分卖家可能会通过涨价或退出平台来应对,这可能会对部分购物者产生影响。
Some sellers could respond by raising prices or leaving the platform, which could have an impact on some shoppers.
不过,这也将为在线卖家创造公平竞争环境,确保依规收取增值税的企业不会被违规不收税的企业非法低价倾销。
However, it would also level the playing field for online sellers, ensuring those businesses who charge VAT are not illegally undercut by those who break the rules and do not.
- 削减福利开支上述三项税收措施合计每年最多仅能增加约35亿英镑收入。
- Cut welfare spending The above three tax measures together would raise a maximum of only around £3.5bn a year.
相较于财政大臣可能需要恢复其财政缓冲空间并为任何新增支出买单所需的资金规模,这一数额微不足道。
That would be small relative to the sums of money the Chancellor might well need to restore his headroom and pay for any new spending.
首相安迪·伯纳姆今夏表示,他希望对英国福利账单实现“公平且持久”的削减,而政府面临来自反对党的压力,要求从劳动年龄福利中寻找节省开支的途径。
Prime Minister Andy Burnham said in the summer he wanted a "fair and lasting" reduction to the UK's welfare bill, while the government is under pressure from opposition parties to find savings from working-age benefits.
保守党声称,通过限制民众领取福利金的资格,他们每年可节省360亿英镑。
The Conservatives claim they could make savings of £36bn a year by restricting people's access to welfare payments.
英国改革党表示,他们将通过这种方式每年节省500亿英镑,不过独立分析人士表示,如此大规模的节省究竟有多现实仍存疑问。
Reform say they would save £50bn a year in this way, although independent analysts say there are questions about how realistic it is to make such large savings.
自新冠疫情以来,工作健康福利和疾病津贴急剧上升,据英国预算责任办公室预测,其总体成本将从今年的680亿英镑增至2031年的810亿英镑。
Working health and sickness benefits have risen sharply since the Covid pandemic and the overall cost is projected by the Office for Budget Responsibility to increase from £68bn this year to £81bn in 2031.
基尔·斯塔默和蕾切尔·里夫斯曾试图在2030年之前将这些福利支出每年削减5亿英镑,但在工党后座议员的反抗后被迫改变方针。
Keir Starmer and Rachel Reeves attempted to reduce spending on these benefits by £5bn a year by 2030, but were forced to reverse course after a revolt by backbench Labour MPs.
独立福利专家和经济学家表示,削减劳动年龄人口福利预算来实现节省是可能的,但可能需要前期支出以帮助人们重返工作岗位,这可能会抵消财政部近期可能获得的任何节省。
Independent welfare experts and economists say savings from the working age welfare budget are possible but would likely require upfront spending to help people into work, which could cancel out any near-term savings for the Treasury.
对健康和残疾福利的削减将减少目前获得这些支付的人和/或未来将获得这些支付的人的收入——活动人士警告称,这存在将人们推入贫困的风险。
Cuts to health and disability welfare would reduce the incomes of people who currently receive those payments and/or those who would otherwise receive them in future - and campaigners warn of the risk of people being pushed into poverty.
然而,如果有更多的福利申请者同时也获得支持重返工作岗位,他们的总体收入则可以维持甚至增加。图表由卡勒姆·汤姆森和刘易斯·麦克布莱恩制作。您希望BBC核查部(BBC Verify)调查什么?
However, if more welfare claimants were also supported into work, their overall incomes could be maintained or even rise. Graphics by Callum Thomson and Lewis McBlane. What do you want BBC Verify to investigate?
