这则广告令人作呕。你们知道我说的是哪一条——俄亥俄州州长候选人维韦克·拉马斯瓦米攻击对手艾米·阿克顿，利用了阿克顿显然备受创伤的母亲，她在阿克顿童年时期未能保护女儿免受强奸犯继父的侵害，反而抛弃孩子留在了这个现已去世的恋童癖身边。哇，即便在2026年，这也太过分了。这则广告上周在网上发布，并计划在选举前通过电视大规模投放，甚至引发了共和党内部的谴责。
The ad was repugnant. You know the one I'm talking about — Ohio gubernatorial candidate Vivek Ramaswamy's attack on opponent Amy Acton using her clearly troubled mother, who failed to protect Acton as a child from her rapist stepfather and instead abandoned her kids to stay with the now-deceased pedophile. Wow. Even in 2026, that's a lot. The ad, released last week on the internet and set for a television blitz through the election, has sparked condemnation even from Republicans.
虽然只是部分人。特朗普总统和副总统J·D·万斯（拉马斯瓦米的密友）为其辩护，令各地正直人士深感懊恼，他们将此视为老牌共和党（Grand Old Party）的生死关头。特朗普称让阿克顿母亲出镜是“挖到宝了”。“为什么不能利用这一点？”特朗普周五表示，“在我看来，这完全属于合理攻击范围。”在特朗普的世界里，他是对的。
Some anyway. President Trump and Vice President JD Vance (a close friend of Ramaswamy's) have defended it, much to the chagrin of decent people everywhere who have labeled this a make-it-or-break-it moment for the Grand Old Party. Trump called getting Acton's mom on camera "hitting pay dirt." "Why shouldn't somebody use that?" Trump said Friday. "To me, that's something that's very much fair game." Trump's right, in his world anyway.
他的拥趸可能不喜欢这则广告，但这不是决定性因素。感到震惊的人们，无论左右，在这一点上都错了——这不是共和党的转折点，也不是它意识到灵魂已在油锅里煎熬的时刻。当拉马斯瓦米落败时——如果民调准确，他很可能会输——不会是因为共和党选民终于认为党派堕落太深、迷失方向或缺乏道德。当右翼进行事后复盘时，也不会审视利用性虐待受害者是否是明智之举。
His faithful may not like the ad, but it's not a deal-breaker. The appalled, left and right, are wrong on this one — this is not a turning point for the Republican Party or the moment it realized its soul was in the frying pan. When Ramaswamy loses — and he's likely going to lose, if polls are right — it won't be because Republican voters finally believe the party has sunk too low, lost its way or lacks morals. And when the postmortem happens on the right, it won't examine whether exploiting victims of sex abuse is a smart move. (Full disclosure: One of my relatives is an advisor of Ramaswamy.)
（完全披露：我的一位亲属是拉马斯瓦米的顾问。）相反，这则广告最终将被视为送给唐纳德·特朗普的一份厚礼，原因有二。首先，它让拉马斯瓦米——他背书的候选人——落败时，不用怪总统挑起战争、搞垮经济、总体上深受普通美国人厌恶。做好准备吧，因为如果拉马斯瓦米败北，特朗普会宣称是民主党和腐败媒体歪曲了广告内容、撒谎抹黑拉马斯瓦米。
Instead, the ad will eventually be seen as a great gift to Donald Trump for two reasons. First, it allows Ramaswamy — his endorsed candidate — to lose without it being the president's fault for starting a war, tanking the economy and generally being entirely unpopular with average Americans. Get ready, because if Ramaswamy goes down, Trump will spin it that Democrats and the corrupt media misrepresented the ad and lied about Ramaswamy.
这不是特朗普的错，这只是进一步证明了他的斗争是正义的。其次，这让他在2028年大选前测试其“让美国再次伟大”（MAGA）追随者的忠诚度，各位，很遗憾我得说，他们极有可能以优异成绩通过这项考验。万斯在为广告辩护时明确阐述了这一点，将他的鄙视留给那些胆敢不坚定不移的共和党人。“别再为一则广告哭哭啼啼了，去赢下13天后的选举吧，”万斯在回应关于该广告的提问时说道。
Not Trump's fault, just further proof of why his battle is righteous. Second, it allows him to test the loyalty of his MAGA acolytes ahead of 2028, and folks, I'm sorry to say it's a test they are likely to pass with flying colors. Vance laid this out clearly in his defense, reserving his scorn for Republicans who dared to be anything but steadfast. "Stop whining about an and go win the race in 13 days," Vance said in response to a question about the ad.
他补充说，他感到“恶心”，因为他的共和党同僚似乎对这则广告的愤怒，胜过对国会民主党人和其他民主党人想对美利坚合众国做的事情的愤怒。尽管对性虐待（甚至针对未成年人）有诸多焦虑，但只要他们的候选人获胜并保住权力，这些永远的特朗普拥趸其实根本不在乎。去问问杰弗里·爱泼斯坦的受害者。问问E·简·卡罗尔。
He added he was "disgusted" that his fellow Republicans were seemingly more upset about the ad "than they are about what the congressional Democrats and other Democrats want to do to the United States of America." For all the angst about sexual abuse, even of minors, the forever Trumpers honestly don't care as long as their candidates win and maintain power. Just ask Jeffrey Epstein's victims. Ask E. Jean Kelly.
问问马特·盖茨指控中的“受害者A”，或者如果你还记得那么久远的话，问问克里斯汀·布拉西·福特。名单还在继续。MAGA铁杆分子可能会大喊大叫、跺脚捶胸，表示他们多么痛恨恋童癖者，但他们更痛恨民主党人。特朗普已告诫这些选民无视该广告，投票给拉马斯瓦米。我预测，照做的人会比体面所允许的更多——因为我们以前见过这种MAGA式的精神分裂，他们不知怎么就能在特朗普让他们做某事时，把所有所谓的愤慨都抛诸脑后。
Ask Victim A in the Matt Gaetz allegations, or Christine Blasey Ford if you can remember that far back. The list goes on. MAGA diehards may holler and stomp about how much they hate pedophiles, but they hate Democrats more. Trump has told these voters to ignore the ad and vote Ramaswamy. I predict more of them do it than decency permits — because we've seen this MAGA mental split before, where they somehow set aside all of their so-called outrage when Trump tells them to do something.
这些选民清楚，特朗普政权提供了一个真正的机会，以难以逆转的方式将国家重塑为保守主义堡垒，为此他们甚至会忽视利用儿童强奸牟利这种卑劣行径。“维韦克很棒，俄亥俄州没人比他更合适。那是个疯狂的故事，”特朗普在“真相社交”发帖为广告辩护后，一名支持者回复道。“我喜欢维韦克毫不犹豫地揭露不法行为，”另一人写道。
These voters are clear that the Trump regime presents a real opportunity to remake the country into a conservative bastion in ways that will be hard to undo, and they will overlook even the indecency of exploiting childhood rape. "Vivek is Great, there is no one better for Ohio. That's a wild story," responded one supporter on Truth Social after Trump posted a defense of the ad. "I love how Vivek does not hesitate to call out wrongdoings," wrote another.
还有人试图把话题引向他们关于众议员伊尔汗·奥马尔和密歇根州参议员候选人阿卜杜勒·埃尔-赛义德的阴谋论，这两人因种族和宗教而成为右翼的两大妖魔。
Others tried to turn the topic to their conspiracies about Rep. Ilhan Omar and Michigan senate candidate Abdul El-Sayed, two bogeyman of the right for their race and religion.
特朗普支持者对他的帖子的反应完全符合其惯常风格——要么转移话题，要么指责媒体和虚假信息扭曲了问题。（特朗普和拉马斯瓦米声称，该广告并非关于性虐待，而仅关乎阿克顿是否诚实。）有了这层合理化的外衣，他最忠诚的俄亥俄州基本盘——由自认为是白人福音派的20%选民领衔——很可能会继续支持他。近80%的白人福音派新教徒支持特朗普，他们是积极投票的群体，多年来已将特朗普的现实与特朗普的承诺割裂开来。
The responses of Trumpers to his post were exactly on brand — deflecting or blaming media and disinformation for skewing the issue. (Trump and Ramaswamy are claiming that the ad isn't about sexual abuse, but only about whether Acton is truthful.) With that veneer of justification, it's likely his most devout base in Ohio, led by the 20% of voters who consider themselves white evangelicals, will stick with their guy. Nearly 8 in 10 white evangelical Protestants support Trump, and they are motivated voters who have disconnected the Trump reality from the Trump promise for years.
尽管全国范围内对该广告愤慨不已，但俄亥俄州的最终计票结果很可能与这场纷争爆发前大体一致。在过去几天跳进泥潭之前，拉马斯瓦米在民调中就已落后。一份可靠的库克政治报告民调显示，阿克顿以49%对44%领先——这也是拉马斯瓦米绝望到不得不尝试这种最后关头的抹黑手段的原因之一。我愿打赌一个俄亥俄州七叶树果，最终得票率不会远超这一差距，共和党对拉马斯瓦米的支持不会出现大幅下滑迹象，尽管有那么多姿态摆出和焦虑表示。
Despite all the outrage across the country about the ad, it's likely the final tally in Ohio will remain largely as it would have been before the kerfuffle. Ramaswamy was down in the polls before he dove into the muck of the past few days. A reliable Cook’s poll put Acton ahead 49% to 44% — one of the reasons Ramaswamy was desperate enough to try this last-ditch smear. I'll bet an Ohio buckeye the final count isn't far outside that margin, with no sign of a massive drop in Republican support of Ramaswamy, despite all the posturing and hand-wringing.
如果他输了，更可能是因为针对印裔美国人的种族主义激增，尤其是在年轻保守派中，而非仅因一则丑陋的广告。但那些谴责该广告的共和党人将面临总统的惩罚。该广告不是失误，而是一场无意中的测试。总统在广告遭全国唾骂时依然拥抱它，借此正在发现在他即将面临的这十年统治中最艰难的两年——他不再假装是什么别的什么，而是一个意图将权力和财富最大化的腐败贪婪之人；他要挑战选举的那一阶段——他到底能信任谁、不能信任谁。我们正目睹老派共和党人因该广告而被清洗殆尽。
If he loses, it is likely more about the surging racism against Indian Americans, especially with young conservatives, than one ugly ad. But those Republicans who denounced the ad will face the president's punishment. The ad is not a mistake. It is an inadvertent test. By embracing the ad even as it's disparaged nationally, the president is discovering exactly who he can, and can't, trust as he heads into the two most difficult years of his decadelong rule — the part where he stops pretending to be anything but what he is, a corrupt and greedy man intent on maximizing power and wealth. The part where he challenges elections. We are watching the last of the old-guard Republicans being purged thanks to the ad.
共和党人刚刚拾起他们那点残存的廉耻与勇气，针对这则广告发声，此刻却又亲手将其撕得粉碎，让特朗普得以洞悉：当捍卫民主的关头到来时，究竟谁会站出来对抗他。特朗普已经开始反击，誓要让那些潜在的、最后关头的“良心拒服兵役者”声名狼藉。现任俄亥俄州共和党州长迈克·德怀恩呼吁拉马斯瓦米停止播放该广告，称其“令人深感不安”，特朗普随即对他发动攻击——尽管德怀恩表示仍支持拉马斯瓦米接任自己职位（德怀恩面临任期限制）。
Republicans who have gathered up the tattered shreds of their integrity and courage over this ad are shredding them to nothing on this moment, giving Trump insight into who might stand up to him when the protection of our democracy is on the line. Trump has started lashing out already, making sure those potential last-round conscientious objectors are damaged. After current Ohio Republican Gov. Mike DeWine called for Ramaswamy to stop airing the spot, labeling it "deeply troubling," Trump attacked him — even though DeWine said he continued to support Ramaswamy as his replacement. (DeWine is facing term limits.)
特朗普在社交媒体上写道：“迈克·德怀恩，多年前我不幸帮他当选，那时他在我的造势集会前落后16个百分点，一如既往地对共和党不忠。”德怀恩绝非孤例。特朗普哄骗自己组建联盟的日子已成过去——如今身处第二任期，他正不顾舆论，巩固核心圈子的权力。那些可能因广告而弃权或倒戈的独立选民，同样可能因油价或战争而改变立场。
"Mike DeWine, who I unfortunately helped get elected years ago, when he was losing by 16 points prior to my doing a Rally for him was, as usual, disloyal to the Republican Party," Trump wrote on social media. DeWine was far from alone. Trump's days of conning himself into a coalition are behind him — well into his second term, is now consolidating power behind his core, public opinion be damned. The independent voters that may indeed not vote or change votes because of the ad were just as likely to switch over gas prices or wars.
这则广告从未针对他们，而正是为了激起这场愤怒，以那种特朗普最擅长的肮脏霸凌手段动员基本盘——我相信他说希望能亲自制作这样一则广告时是发自肺腑的。特朗普本周将在俄亥俄州与拉马斯瓦米共同举行集会，届时大多数共和党人极有可能已将愤怒转化为支持。他的基本盘明白，他对该广告的支持是权力的彰显。
The ad was never for them, but rather just for this outrage, this push to motivate the base with just the sort of grimy bullying Trump does best — I believe him when he says he wishes he could make an ad like this. Trump will rally in Ohio this week with Ramaswamy, and it's likely most Republicans will somehow have transmuted their outrage into support by the time he appears in person. His base understands his support of the ad is an expression of power.
他的基本盘清楚他们正在做何种交易。他的基本盘不在乎阿克顿遭遇了什么，因为她永远不会给他们想要的美国。他的基本盘喜欢这则广告，哪怕他们不愿承认。
His base understands the trade they are making. His base doesn't care what happened to Acton, because she will never give them the America they want. His base likes the ad, even if they won't admit it.