
如果加利福尼亚州州长加文·纽森如许多民主党人所预期的那样参加2028年总统竞选,他将带着其他白宫竞争者无疑会羡慕的一项资产入场:一个由全国潜在支持者海量且不断增长的联系人名单驱动的小额捐款筹款和组织机器。甚至在去年该州第50号提案重新划分选区的成功努力之前,纽森就已积累了超过1700万个电子邮件地址,他的顾问表示,随着民主党人狂热地大量捐款以重绘加利福尼亚州的选举版图,该名单此后已呈指数级增长。
If California Gov. Gavin Newsom enters the 2028 presidential race, as many Democrats expect, he’ll walk in with an asset other White House hopefuls will inarguably envy: A small-dollar fundraising and organizing machine powered by a massive and ever-growing contact list of potential supporters across the country.
顾问们拒绝透露该名单的当前规模。纽森的顾问称,该名单已帮助纽森在本届中期选举周期筹集了超过680万美元。顾问们告诉《国会山报》,本周期已有超过30.5万笔捐款,平均捐款额为22.47美元。纽森团队表示,筹款呼吁的大部分资金仅用于支持其他民主党候选人和事业。他们说,州长依然高度专注于帮助民主党赢得中期选举。
Even before last year’s successful Proposition 50 redistricting effort in his state, Newsom had amassed more than 17 million email addresses, and his advisers say it’s only multiplied exponentially since then as Democrats feverishly donated in large numbers to redraw California’s electoral maps. That list — advisers declined to provide its current size — has already helped Newsom raise more than $6.8 million during the midterm election cycle, Newsom’s advisers said.
在680万美元总额中,185万美元为15个州民主党筹集,他们说。还有220万美元为南方民主党人筹集,以帮助在深南部建立基础设施,这最近一直是该党的痛点。但如果州长发起白宫竞选,该名单不仅会给他带来自动的资金注入,还将在潜在支持者的外联和组织方面赋予他显著优势。“哦,当然,那将是他在总统竞选中拥有的一个关键优势,”加里·索斯说,他是纽森的长期盟友,曾在纽森首次竞选州长时担任顾问。
“首先,加利福尼亚州任何成功的候选人起步时拥有的捐赠者基础都比其他州的任何候选人大,因为我们是最大的州。
There have been more than 305,000 contributions this cycle, with $22.47 being the average donation, the advisers tell The Hill. Newsom’s team said the bulk of the fundraising appeals have been funneled solely toward other Democratic candidates and causes.
但他在针对“50号提案”的全国筹款中,为自己积累了一个全国性的筹款基础,再加上他经检验合格的加州捐赠者名单。”纽森多年来一直在建立这个名单,可以追溯到2021年他面临罢免的时候。当时,与现在相比,他的名单相对单薄,只有25万个联系人。到2022年,《政治报》报道称,他已将该名单扩大到600万个,并在雇用了蒂姆·塔加里斯之后进一步加大了力度。
The governor, they say, remains hyper-focused on helping Democrats win in the midterms. Of the $6.8 million total, $1.85 million has been raised for 15 state Democratic parties, they said. And $2.2 million has been raised for Southern Democrats to help build infrastructure in the Deep South, which has been a sore spot recently for the party.
塔加里斯曾帮助管理无党派佛蒙特州联邦参议员伯尼·桑德斯在2016年总统竞选中的数字业务,并帮助将纽森的名单变成了一个强有力的政治武器。在此期间,这位州长就一系列激烈的议题与支持者进行了接触,其中包括他与特朗普及共和党人进行的各种交锋。例如,在2024年的选举周期中,纽森凭借其小额筹款机制,单枪匹马地向民主党的努力和候选人注入了超过2100万美元资金。
But should the governor launch a White House bid, the list would give him not only an automatic financial shot in the arm but a significant edge on outreach and organizing of potential supporters. “Oh, of course, that’s a key advantage he’ll have in a presidential race,” said Garry South, a longtime Newsom ally who advised him in his first gubernatorial race.
其他潜在的2028年竞争者,包括众议员亚历山大·奥卡西奥-科尔特斯(民主党-纽约州),也建立强大的小额捐赠运作网络。例如,奥卡西奥-科尔特斯在当前的选举周期中筹集了超过3700万美元,其中大部分来自200美元或以下的捐款。截至9月底,她的竞选团队报告称手头现金超过1700万美元,这为她接下来的发展奠定了坚实的基础。
“First, any successful candidate in California starts out with a bigger donor base than anyone from another state because we’re the biggest state. But his national fundraising for Prop 50 provides him with a national fundraising base on top of his proven California donor list.”Newsom has been building the list for years, dating back to 2021 when he was facing a recall.
奥卡西奥-科尔特斯正在权衡她的下一步行动,包括是否竞选总统或纽约州参议员席位。金钱在政治中发挥作用的方式多年来已经发生了变化,候选人喜欢向选民展示,他们不仅仅依赖巨额捐赠者和超级政治行动委员会来赢得竞选。民主党战略家克里斯蒂·塞策表示:“金钱很重要,但不是决定性的——看看共和党人在中期选举中花掉的数十亿美元,却仍然未能缩小差距,就知道了。”
Back then, his list was relatively meager by comparison, with a quarter of million contacts. By 2022, Politico reported that he had grown the list to 6 million and has supercharged it since, after he hired Tim Tagaris, who helped manage Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.)'s digital operation on his 2016 presidential campaign and helped turn Newsom’s list into its own potent political weapon.
“金钱可以买到知名度,但也会给选民贴上负面标签,因为选民普遍厌恶自掏腰包的候选人,以及金钱如此深度渗透我们的政治。”塞策说:“然而,大量小额捐款对于展示实力和势头很重要;这是AOC(亚历山德拉·奥卡西奥-科尔特斯)被提及为2028年竞选人选的关键原因。”
In that time, the governor has reached out to supporters on a number of topics, including his various fights with Trump and Republicans on a series of fiery issues. During the 2024 cycle, for example, Newsom had single-handedly poured more than $21 million into Democratic efforts and candidates with his small-dollar fundraising apparatus.
纽森的盟友表示,对名单的呼吁持续不断,但有针对性且经过深思熟虑。在8月的一封邮件中,州长为两位红州候选人寻求支持,分别是佛罗里达州前联邦众议员大卫·乔利和南卡罗来纳州的杰梅因·约翰逊。“我们今年为南方各州和在南方各州参选的候选人筹集了大量资金,这是有充分理由的,”纽森在一封邮件中说。“这些地方长期以来一直被民主党忽视。”但他在邮件中接着解释道:“这些州翻盘的唯一途径,是我们有勇气一次又一次地战斗,直到成功为止。”
Other potential 2028 contenders including, Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y), have also built powerful small-donor operations. Ocasio-Cortez, for example, raised more than $37 million during the current election cycle, with most of it coming from contributions of $200 or less. At the end of September, her campaign reported more than $17 million cash on hand, giving her a strong foundation for what comes next.
纽森团队表示,这些捐款已产生切实的变化——包括在州长若要在2028年总统大选中获胜所需的关键州。本周期他为新罕布什尔州民主党筹集了57.9万多美元,其中部分资金帮助在纳舒亚设立了一个新的民主党竞选现场办公室,并支持该州的下级候选人。在南卡罗来纳州——民主党2028年初选的首个投票州——纽森进行了他最大规模的一些投资,其团队称。
他的名单帮助为该州民主党筹集了34.2万多美元;为州长候选人约翰逊筹集了5.3万美元;为六位州众议院候选人筹集了6.1万多美元。纽森团队表示,在南卡罗来纳州的立法层面投资有助于成功传递其运作信号:筹款预算微薄的候选人每人可获得约1万美元,在某些情况下,这相当于他们竞选活动的全部预算。
Ocasio-Cortez is weighing her next moves, including whether she’ll run for president or a New York Senate seat. The way money plays in politics has changed over the years, and candidates like to show the electorate they’re not just relying on mega donors and super PACs to help win races. “Money’s important but not determinative — just look at the literal billions the GOP is spending on midterm races, and still failing to close the gap,” said Democratic strategist Christy Setzer.
在内华达州——民主党的另一个早期初选州——纽森利用这份名单不仅筹款,还在该州组织活动。今年夏天,当他与内华达州检察长亚伦·福特——后者正在竞选州长——以及众议员史蒂文·霍斯福德(民主党-内华达州)一同现身该州时,他的团队利用这份名单动员志愿者,并在该州开设了一个新的竞选办公室。而在他的家乡加利福尼亚州,在其推动的第50号提案成功通过后,纽森拨出50万美元,支持五名在因重新划分选区而变得具有竞争力的选区中参选的国会候选人。
“Money can buy name recognition but also a negative label from voters, who generally hate self-funders and the way money is so infused in our politics. “A large amount of small dollar donations, however, are important as a show of strength and momentum; it’s a key reason AOC is mentioned in 2028 conversations,” Setzer said. The appeals to the list are constant but targeted and intentional, Newsom allies say. In one missive in August, the governor sought support for two candidates in red states, former Rep. David Jolly in Florida and Jermaine Johnson in South Carolina. “We’ve raised a lot of money for southern states and candidates running in southern states this year, and there’s a good reason for it,” Newsom said in one email. “These are places long-neglected by the Democratic Party.” But he went on to explain in the email that “the only way back for those states is if we have the courage to fight — cycle after cycle — until we get it done.” And Newsom’s team says the donations have made palpable changes — including in key states the governor would need to win in a 2028 presidential race. When he raised more than $579,000 for New Hampshire Democrats this cycle, part of that money helped fund a new Democratic field office in Nashua, along with support for state candidates down the line. In South Carolina, the first state where Democrats will vote in the 2028 primaries, Newsom made some of his largest investments, his team said. His list helped raise more than $342,000 for the state’s Democratic Party; $53,000 for Johnson, the gubernatorial candidate; and more than $61,000 for six state House candidates. Newsom’s team said that the legislative investments in South Carolina help telegraph his operation successfully: Candidates with small fundraising budgets can receive roughly $10,000 each, which is, in some cases, the entire budget of their campaigns. In Nevada, another early state for Democrats, Newsom put the list to work to not only fundraise but build events in the state. When he appeared there with Nevada Attorney General Aaron Ford — who is running for governor — and Rep. Steven Horsford (D-Nev.) this summer, his team used the list to rally volunteers and open a new field office in the state. And in his home state, on the heels of his successful Proposition 50 effort, Newsom directed half a million dollars for five congressional candidates running in districts made competitive by the redistricting initiative. Newsom hasn't yet decided if he will enter the race, even as many Democrats expect he will in fact wade into 2028 waters. For now, his spokesman Izzy Gardon, said Newsom is "doing everything he can to help Democrats win" the midterms.
纽森尚未决定是否参选,尽管许多民主党人预计他实际上会投身2028年大选。目前,他的发言人伊齐·加登表示,纽森正在“竭尽全力帮助民主党赢得”中期选举。“他不是在为自己筹款,”加登说。“他正在投入他的时间、资源,并调动他的全国性小额捐赠者网络,支持那些需要帮助的候选人和政党——尤其是那些很少得到全国关注的下层选票竞选。”
"He isn't fundraising for himself," Gardon said. "He is spending his time, his resources, and deploying his national small donor network to support candidates and parties who need the help — especially in down-ballot races that rarely get national attention."