比尔·盖茨表示，人工智能将创造“真正的丰裕”，但在其到来之前的未来二十年将是“人类历史上最动荡的时期之一”。“我最大的担忧是这个20年的过渡期，会有赢家和输家，以及大量的动荡，”这位微软联合创始人兼亿万富翁慈善家在最新一期的“解码者”播客节目中表示。盖茨呼应了关于白领工作的广泛担忧，称电话销售、电话支持和会计将会消失，因为人工智能能够以“极低成本、极快速度，甚至更高精度”完成这些工作。
Bill Gates says AI will create "true abundance," but the next two decades before it arrives will be "as tumultuous a period as there's been in human history." "My big concern is this 20-year transition period, where they'll have winners and losers and a lot of disruption," the Microsoft cofounder and billionaire philanthropist said on the latest episode of the "Decoder" podcast. Gates echoed widespread concerns about white-collar jobs, saying that telesales, telesupport, and accounting will disappear as AI will be able to do those "radically cheaper, radically faster, and even more accurately."
至于蓝领工作，人形机器人将接管这些工作，他说。“如果我们不选择大幅放缓或停止，那么我们将拥有能够建造房屋、种植食物、进行手术的机器人，”盖茨说。“而人类劳动为经济提供的大多数商品和服务所需的东西，将不再必要。”他还强调，对于像他这样拥有巨大资源、能够率先推动消除疟疾和应对其他人道主义危机的人来说，这种变化将是多么令人震惊。
As for blue-collar jobs, humanoid robots will take over those, he said. "If we don't choose to massively slow down or stop, then we will have robots that can build houses, grow food, do surgery," Gates said. "And none of the things that human labor provides to the economy will be necessary for most goods and services." He also underscored how jarring it will be for someone like him, whose vast resources have allowed him to lead the charge toward eliminating malaria and tackling other humanitarian crises.
“当人工智能对我说，‘不，我比你强，你去打 pickleball 吧，我稍后回复你，我来处理这个’——我的意思是，这有点幽默，但又不幽默，”他说。盖茨分享了他长期持有的观点，即工作对于让人们拥有目标感、赚取收入、每天有理由出现、与同事建立关系以及构建事物和解决问题的途径至关重要。他建议，艺术、体育、烹饪和育儿等某些活动有一天可能会保留给人类，“尽管人工智能能更好地完成这些事情。”盖茨还强调，提前退休和限制工作时长等措施可能有助于维持一定水平的人类就业。
"And when the AI says to me, 'No, I'm better than you, you go play pickleball and I'll get back to you, I'm gonna take care of this' — I mean, it's kind of humorous, but it's not humorous," he said. Gates shared his long-held view that work is vital to giving people a sense of purpose, a way to earn an income, a reason to show up every day, an avenue to build relationships with colleagues, and a path to build things and solve problems. He suggested that certain activities such as art, sports, cooking, and childcare could one day be reserved for humans, "even though the AI could do those things better." Gates also highlighted that measures such as early retirement and caps on working hours could help maintain some level of human employment.
他设想有些人会说：“让我们像阿米什人一样，只在某些事情上使用人工智能”，这样他们就不必放弃“互相帮助或想出独特想法”。亚马逊创始人杰夫·贝索斯和摩根大通首席执行官杰米·戴蒙都提出了缩短工作周的建议，作为比人工智能导致的失业痛苦更小的替代方案。盖茨是众多警告在通往富足时代的道路上会出现就业冲击的科技领袖之一。
He envisioned some people saying, "Let's be like the Amish and let's only use AI for certain things," so they won't have to give up "helping each other or coming up with unique ideas." Amazon founder Jeff Bezos and JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon have both proposed a shorter workweek as a less painful alternative to AI-driven unemployment. Gates is one of several tech leaders to warn of job disruption on the road to an age of abundance.
埃隆·马斯克预测这一过渡将“颠簸不平”，并提议向所有人发放政府支票，作为应对人工智能导致失业的最佳方案。他曾表示，技术将把生产成本压低到每个人都能拥有“他们想要的任何东西”的程度，工作将变得“可选”，而且不值得为10年或20年后的退休储蓄，因为金钱将不再重要。同样，Anthropic的达里奥·阿莫代伊曾表示，人工智能有望“提高每个人的生活质量”，但“短期冲击的规模将是前所未有的”。
Elon Musk has predicted a "bumpy" transition and proposed government checks for all as the best solution to AI-driven job losses. He's said that technology will drive production costs so low that everyone can have "whatever stuff they want," work will become "optional," and it's not worth saving for retirement in 10 or 20 years as money won't matter. Similarly, Anthropic's Dario Amodei has said that AI promises to "raise the quality of life for everyone," but the "short-term shock will be unprecedented in size."
然而，OpenAI的萨姆·奥尔特曼在5月表示，人工智能消除的白领工作岗位并没有他预期的那么多，他也不再预计会出现“就业末日”。尽管人们普遍担心人工智能会抢走企业工作岗位，而且亚马逊和Meta等大公司出现了引人注目的裁员，但在人工智能繁荣期间，全国失业率并未出现实质性上升。
However, OpenAI's Sam Altman said in May that AI hasn't eliminated as many white-collar jobs as he expected, and he no longer anticipates a "jobs apocalypse." Despite widespread worry about AI taking corporate jobs, and high-profile layoffs at major companies such as Amazon and Meta, national unemployment hasn't increased materially during the AI boom.