分析师杰斯·拉尔斯顿表示，削减减排目标无法解决制造商面临的问题，他们已经面临来自中国的日益激烈的竞争。
Analyst Jess Ralston said weakening emissions targets would not solve the problems for manufacturers, who are already facing intensified competition from China.
政策转向可能阻碍英国电动汽车普及 费奥娜·哈维和贾斯珀·乔利 2030年新车中80%实现零排放的目标可能被削减至低至一半 电动汽车让人快乐。最近一项民调显示，超过九成电动汽车车主——94%——正在省钱，同样比例的人表示下次购车仍会选择电动汽车，并会向家人和朋友推荐。销量飙升：如果算上混合动力汽车，上个月在英国销售的新车中超过一半是电动汽车，而纯电动汽车占新车总销量的约28%。
Policy U-turn could stall Britain’s take-up of electric vehicles Fiona Harvey and Jasper Jolly The 2030 target for 80% of new cars to have zero emissions could be cut to as low as half Electric cars make people happy. More than nine in 10 EV drivers – 94% in a recent poll – are saving money, and a similar number would stick with electric for their next purchase, and recommend them to family and friends. Sales are soaring: more than half of the new cars sold in the UK last month were electric, if hybrids are taken into account, and about 28% of new car sales overall were electric only.
这并不奇怪，因为汽油和柴油价格飙升，使得加满一箱油的价格达到约120英镑。电动汽车车主每英里的费用约为2.4便士。
This is hardly surprising, given that soaring petrol and diesel costs have pushed up the price of a full tank to about £120. EV drivers are paying about 2.4p a mile.
那么，为什么政府正在考虑对电动汽车政策进行重大转向？如果这一转向付诸实施，可能会阻碍电动汽车的普及，帮助关闭降低生活成本的一条途径，并削弱英国实现碳目标的能力？
Why then is the government considering a major U-turn on electric vehicle policy that, if followed through, could stall the take-up of EVs, help to close off a route to lower living costs, and dent the UK’s ability to meet its carbon targets?
首相安迪·伯纳姆本周在《卫报》撰文表示，他将推进到2050年实现温室气体净零排放的目标。尽管本周获准开发杰克多气田，但政府消息人士也向《卫报》透露，另一个大型项目——设得兰群岛以西的罗斯班克油田——不太可能获批。然而，《卫报》看到的能源与气候智库（ECIU）的分析显示，即将做出的关于电动汽车未来的决定也可能对净零排放和碳预算产生重大影响，尽管这一问题受到的关注远少于上述项目。
Andy Burnham, the prime minister, wrote in the Guardian this week that he would push ahead with the target of reaching net zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050 Despite the go-ahead for the Jackdaw gasfield this week, sources in government also hinted to the Guardian that another large project, the Rosebank oilfield, west of Shetland, was less likely to be greenlighted However, analysis from the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU) thinktank, seen by the Guardian, shows that the looming decision on the future of electric vehicles could also have a major impact on net zero and carbon budgets, though it has received far less attention.
根据零排放汽车强制令，从2035年起，所有新售汽车和货车必须全部为纯电动汽车，中期目标是到2030年，新车中80%、新货车中70%为零排放汽车。
Under the zero emissions vehicle mandate, all new cars and vans sold from 2035 must be fully electric, with interim targets for 80% of new cars and 70% of new vans to be ZEVs by 2030.
2035年的最终目标很可能保持不变，但在周五结束的一项咨询中，2030年的目标可能会被削弱至新车销量的70%，甚至低至50%。连同此前允许销售更多混合动力汽车（即同时使用电力和燃烧引擎）而对政策的削弱，这一变化将导致排放量超过燃烧杰克道油气田所有天然气的排放量，据能源与气候情报单位（ECIU）测算。
The end goal of 2035 is likely to remain, but under a consultation that ended on Friday, the 2030 targets could be weakened to 70% or even as low as 50% of new cars. Taken with previous watering down of the policy to allow more sales of hybrid cars – which use both electric and combustion engines – that change would lead to emissions greater than burning all the gas in the Jackdaw field, according to the ECIU.
如果强制目标被更大幅度削减，仅要求2030年电动汽车销量占比达到50%，这可能意味着额外排放1.47亿吨二氧化碳当量，约等于燃烧罗斯班克油田生产的石油所产生的预期排放量的58%。
If the mandate were cut more drastically to require only 50% of sales to be EVs by 2030, this could mean an additional 147 megatonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent, which would equate to about 58% of the likely emissions from burning the oil produced by the Rosebank field.
ECIU分析师杰斯·拉尔顿表示，削弱目标无法解决制造商面临的问题，他们已面临来自中国的竞争加剧，因为越来越多的人选择电动汽车。这也不利于公众，因为电动汽车每年运行成本可低1750英镑，若油价上涨，节省可能更多。
Jess Ralston, an analyst at the ECIU, said weakening the target would not solve the problems for manufacturers, who are already facing intensified competition from China as increasing numbers of people opt for EVs. It would also not benefit the public because EVs can be £1,750 a year cheaper to run, and potentially more with oil prices rising.
拉尔顿说：“在经历极端高温和持续干旱后，公众对气候的关注度很高，对净零排放的支持率超过三分之二，此时决定掉头（U-turn）看起来会非常奇怪。部长们曾谈论让家庭摆脱化石燃料价格的过山车——这将是相反的做法，锁定更高的驾驶成本、更多的空气污染和更高的碳排放。”
“With climate concern high among the public after extreme heat and persisting drought and public support for net zero up above two-thirds, a decision to U-turn could look very odd,” Ralston said. “Ministers have talked about getting families off the fossil fuel rollercoaster – this would be the opposite, locking in higher driving costs, more air pollution and higher carbon emissions.”
伯纳姆面临进一步的复杂局面：2024年，欧盟对中国电动汽车征收关税，并在欧洲车企施压下，希望将公共补贴限制在欧洲制造的车辆上。如果伯纳姆希望与欧盟实现更紧密融合、获得更有利的贸易条款，他可能被迫对中国进口英国的电动汽车征收匹配关税。这将推高英国电动汽车成本，切断降低生活成本的一条途径。
Burnham faces a further complication: in 2024, the EU imposed tariffs on Chinese EVs, and now wants to limit public subsidies to vehicles made in Europe, under pressure from European carmakers. If Burnham wants closer integration with the EU, and more favourable trade terms, he may be forced to slap matching tariffs on Chinese imports to the UK. This would raise the cost of EVs in the UK and cut off one route to lower living costs.
根据此前的研究，如果完全按原计划实施，零排放汽车（ZEV）强制令可能成为政府迄今提出的最大单一减碳措施。但在汽车制造商进行密集游说要求削弱该政策后，工党议员们出现了严重分歧。
If fully implemented as originally planned, the ZEV mandate could be the largest single carbon-saving measure the government has yet proposed, according to previous research. But after intensive lobbying from carmakers for a weakening Labour MPs are deeply divided.
英国汽车制造商改造工厂生产电动汽车的步伐缓慢，部分企业转而追求混合动力车型。许多分析师认为，混合动力车结合了污染环境的汽油发动机和较小的电池，属于技术死胡同。相比之下，中国迅速扩大电动汽车制造规模，现已主导全球市场，生产了约四分之三的电动汽车。电动汽车销量飙升，目前约占全球新车销量的四分之一。
Car manufacturers in the UK have been slow to retool their plants to EVs, and some have pursued hybrid vehicles instead. Many analysts consider hybrids, which combine a polluting petrol engine and a smaller battery, a technological dead end. By contrast, China has rapidly ramped up its EV manufacturing, and now dominates the global market, producing about three-quarters of all EVs. Sales of EVs have soared, now making up about a quarter of all new car sales around the world.
部分在设有汽车工厂选区的工党议员站在制造商一边，而另一些议员则认为，随着汽油价格飙升且不太可能回落，电动汽车是降低生活成本、让英国摆脱对化石燃料依赖的途径。
Some Labour MPs in constituencies with car plants side with the manufacturers, while others argue that with petrol prices soaring and unlikely to abate, EVs are a way to lower the cost of living and get Britain off the fossil fuel hook.
工党北赫特福德郡东北选区议员克里斯·欣奇利夫对《卫报》表示：“削弱电动汽车目标将是宜居未来棺材里的又一颗钉子。”
Chris Hinchliff, Labour MP for North East Hertfordshire, told the Guardian: “Weakening the EV target would be another nail in the coffin of a livable future.”
工党布伦特西选区议员、前环境大臣巴里·加德纳表示，政策大逆转将损害有前瞻性的企业，令落后者得利。他说：“削弱强制令意味着那些立即采取行动遵守规定的优秀企业，感觉自己被不公平地加重了额外成本，而它们懒惰的竞争对手却偷偷占了便宜。政府的反复无常对企业是个巨大的问题。明确规定法规，然后坚持下去。企业随后会适应并发挥其长处，因为它知道有一个公平的竞争环境。”
Barry Gardiner, Labour MP for Brent West and former environment minister, said a U-turn would hurt forward-looking companies and favour laggards. “Watering down the mandate means that good companies, who moved straight away to comply, feel they have been unfairly burdened with additional costs while their lazy competitors have sneaked an advantage,” he said. “Government flip-flops are a huge problem for business. State the regulation clearly and then stick to it. Business will then adapt and do what it does best because it knows it has a level playing field.”
政府发言人表示：“我们正在审查零排放汽车强制令，以确保其继续支持英国工业和投资，目前尚未做出任何决定。关键是，最终目标没有改变——我们将在2030年前逐步淘汰所有新款汽油和柴油汽车，并在2035年实现完全零排放，依然致力于我们具有法律约束力的净零排放目标。”消费者研究显示，目前在英国驾驶电动汽车的200万人倾向于喜欢它们：电动汽车协会的民调发现，94%的电动汽车驾驶者表示与汽油或柴油车相比，他们在省钱。比例相近的受访者表示下一辆车仍会选择电动汽车，并会向亲友推荐电动汽车。
A government spokesperson said: “We are reviewing the ZEV mandate to ensure it continues to support British industry and investment, and no decisions have been taken. Crucially, the end goal has not changed – we will phase out all new petrol and diesel cars by 2030 and be fully zero emission by 2035, and remain committed to our legally binding net zero targets.”Consumer research shows the 2 million people currently driving EVs in the UK tend to like them: polling by the Electric Vehicle Association found 94% of EV drivers reported they were saving money compared with petrol or diesel cars. A similar number would stay electric for their next car, and recommend an EV to friends or family.