本周令人震惊的披露巩固了我对未来一年的个人担忧：作为一个国家，乃至作为一个全球，我们正面临创纪录数量的狂野风险，这些风险远远超出了我们的控制范围。
Eye-opening revelations this past week have solidified my personal fears about the year ahead: As a nation and as a globe, we're facing a record number of wild risks that are way outside our control.
- 我对这一情形日益增长的预感，得到了与首席执行官、政府内部人士和顶级投资者的日常交谈的佐证。
• My growing hunch about this scenario has been bolstered by daily conversations with CEOs, government insiders and top investors.
为何重要：感觉很有可能——而非确定——在现在到2028年之间，我们将面临社会层面的冲击，可能包括网络攻击和快速反应式经济冲击。
Why it matters: It feels likely — not certain — that between now and 2028, we'll face society-level disruptions, possibly including cyberattacks and fast-twitch economic shocks.
我们面临的挑战：我们曾应对过单一冲击式危机，如2008年金融崩盘和2020年大流行。明年将有所不同。真正的风险是连锁反应：一个冲击引发其他冲击——速度快于我们的处理能力，且由我们尚不完全理解的人工智能动态引起。
What we're facing: We've navigated single-shot crises like the financial meltdown of 2008 and the pandemic of 2020. This next year will be different. The real risk is a chain reaction: One shock sets off others — faster than we can process, and caused by AI dynamics we don't fully understand.
- 称之为连锁反应混乱。
• Call it chain-reaction chaos.
- 而这发生在后可处理速度时代的背景下：变化的速度超过了任何个人、公司、市场或政府充分吸收、理解和应对的能力。
• And that's against the backdrop of this age of post-processable velocity: The speed of change exceeds the ability of any individual, company, market or government to fully absorb, understand and respond. The reason
原因在于如此多显而易见的风险，它们发生的概率都相对较高，却不断堆积。其中任何一个都会冲击本已高度动荡的市场和政治：
this scenario looks so likely is that so many obvious risks, all with relatively high probabilities, keep piling up. Any one of them will rock already highly volatile markets and politics:
- 网络混乱。过去一周如同警报灯闪烁。AI 检测出 PHP（支撑数百万网站的代码）中的缺陷，导致全球政府网站宕机，并促使国家安全局警告组织立即修补，否则将陷入黑暗。大型银行发现未经授权的 AI 代理出现在客户账户中，有的甚至尝试执行客户从未请求的操作。Anthropic 副首席信息安全官 Jason Clinton 警告称，尽管过去几天已经非常糟糕，网络威胁将在“变好之前变得更糟”。Salesforce CEO Marc Benioff 迅速在 X 上表示赞同，写道：“红色警报”。正如 Madison Mills 为 Axios 报道的，AI 公司和银行正争分夺秒制定“后续日”计划，充分预料未来几个月将出现更大的网络冲击。顶级 AI 公司内部人士告诉我，这种可能性远高于 50%。
• Cyber chaos. This past week was a big flashing siren. AI-detected flaws in PHP, the code behind millions of websites, knocked government sites offline worldwide and prompted the National Security Agency to warn organizations to patch immediately or go dark. Major banks found unauthorized AI agents inside customer accounts, some trying to take actions customers never asked for. And Anthropic's deputy chief information security officer, Jason Clinton, warned that as bad as the past several days had been, cyber threats will get "a lot worse before they get better." Salesforce CEO Marc Benioff quickly agreed, writing on X: "Code red." As Madison Mills reported for Axios, the AI companies and the banks are scrambling for "day after" planning, fully anticipating a bigger cyber hit in coming months. People at top AI companies tell me the chances are far north of 50%.
- AI 泡沫部分破裂。这种感觉不像 1999 年，因为拥有庞大资产负债表的巨头公司正在为 AI 热潮提供资金。但这也是问题所在。它们越来越多地使用借贷资金：高盛预计今年约三分之一的大型科技公司 AI 资本支出将由债务融资。泡沫不必以惊天动地的方式破裂，也会导致广泛的经济和政治痛苦。这些公司相互交织，彼此投资、销售和采购。看看本周 Meta 发生了什么：它的盈利被大幅压低，但随后因披露为 AI 融资筹集资本的困难而惊动市场。任何过度建设……或公司对 AI 使用不足……或中国追赶……或 AI 价格崩溃……或信贷成本飙升……或政治反弹加剧的迹象，都可能让市场快速下跌。短期内，剧烈修正的情景似乎超过 50%。
• AI bubble bursts (partially). This doesn't feel like 1999, since giant companies with huge balance sheets are underwriting the AI boom. But that's also the problem. They're increasingly doing it with borrowed money: Goldman Sachs expects about a third of Big Tech's AI capital expenditure to be debt-financed this year. A bubble doesn't need to burst spectacularly to cause widespread economic and political pain. These companies are deeply intertwined, investing in, selling to and buying from each other. Look what happened with Meta this past week: It crushed its earnings, but then spooked the market by detailing the difficulties of raising capital to fund AI. Any sign of overbuilding … or companies underusing AI … or China catching up … or AI prices collapsing … or credit costs spiking … or the political backlash intensifying, and markets could tumble fast. A sharp correction feels like a 50%+ scenario in the short term.
- 人工智能实现真正的递归自我改进。通过递归自我改进（RSI），人工智能的进步速度可能比几乎任何人预想的都更快。Anthropic、OpenAI和谷歌内部的人士认为，这一进程正在当下展开。如果我们能明智地引导这项技术，长期来看这可能是件好事。但它在2027年也可能被证明具有极大的颠覆性：更先进的人工智能将对行业、公司和工作岗位构成更紧迫的威胁。不难想象，这会诱使民主党人加入参议员伯尼·桑德斯（独立人士-佛蒙特州）的行列，要求放缓甚至完全暂停人工智能的发展，而这将震动市场。
• AI hits true RSI. AI could get better, faster than almost anyone anticipates via recursive self-improvement (RSI). People inside Anthropic, OpenAI and Google see this unfolding now. This could be awesome long-term if we steer the technology smartly. But it could also prove wildly disruptive in 2027: More advanced AI would pose a more urgent threat to industries, companies and jobs. You could easily see this enticing Democrats to join Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) in demanding a slowdown or full pause, which would rattle markets.
- 战争扩大，油价飙升。特朗普总统的助手们认为，他很可能在选举后重启对伊朗的战争。伊朗人警告说，他们将扩大打击目标作为报复。由于威胁加剧，美国减少了驻中东各地大使馆的人员配置。在石油供应紧张、汽油和柴油价格非常高的当下，局势升级的可能性似乎大于不升级。想象一下油价持续维持在每桶120美元所带来的经济痛苦。
• War expands, oil spikes. President Trump's aides believe he's likely to resume the Iran war postelection. The Iranians warn they would expand their targets in retaliation. The U.S. reduced staffing at embassies throughout the Middle East amid increased threats. Escalation feels more likely than not at the very moment oil supplies are tight and gas and diesel prices are very high. Imagine the economic pain of sustained $120-a-barrel oil.
- 一位年迈且不受约束的总统。我想在此明确一点：这不是政治表态，也不是对特朗普健康状况的评估。如果是拜登，我也会写下同样的话。这是基于寿命表得出的、以事实为依据的简单观察。现年80岁的特朗普将以史上最年长总统的身份进入未来两年。从医学上可以确定，人在80多岁时，精神衰退和丧失行为能力的几率会急剧上升。特朗普和拜登很像的一点是，他身边没有能够对他直言相告的人。风险范围从健康突发事件一直延伸到关于战争和总统权力边界的判断。
• An aging, unrestrained president. I want to be clear here: This isn't a political statement or Trump health appraisal. I'd write the same for Joe Biden. It's a simple, fact-based observation based on actuarial tables. Trump, age 80, heads into the next two years as the oldest person ever to be president. It's a medical certainty that the chances of mental decline and incapacitation rise dramatically in your 80s. Trump is much like Biden in that he doesn't have people around him who can level with him. The risk stretches from health episodes to judgments about war and the limits of presidential power.
能做些什么：我详细说明这些，不是为了吓唬你，也不是为了让你束手无策、逃避现实。
What can do: I spell this out not to scare you or cause you to throw up your hands and retreat from reality.
- 只有当你活在未来——理解即将发生的事，并全身心投入地经历这些历史性时刻——你才能为自己的事业、生活和家庭做出明智的决定。
• You can only make wise decisions for your career, your life and your family if you're living in the future — understanding what's coming, and living these historic times with your head in the game.
- Axios的资深记者们正逐小时为您梳理这一令人眩晕时代的临床、实用指南。
• The expert journalists of Axios are working hour by hour to be your clinical, useful guide to this head-spinning era.
三个非常实用的步骤：
Three very practical steps:
- 保持警觉：这是生逢其时、令人兴奋的时代，所以请了解AI——包括好、坏和糟粕。并对雇主和民选代表能为你提供什么有更深层次的思考。
• Be aware: This is an exciting time to be alive. So learn about AI — the good, bad and ugly. And think more deeply about what you expect from your employer and elected representatives.
- 保持警惕：上周Axios关于AI代理的报道凸显了锁定密码的重要性。为每个账户设置唯一密码，存入安全的密码管理器中；在提供passkey的地方使用passkey。用验证器应用保护你的邮箱和手机，因为掌控这些的人可以重置其他一切。不要把密码或验证码交给任何向你联系的人——无论是人还是AI代理。
• Be vigilant: This past week's Axios reporting about AI agents showed the importance of locking down your passwords. Put every account in a secure password manager with a unique password. Use passkeys where offered. Protect your email and phone with an authenticator app, since whoever controls those can reset everything else. And don't hand a password or code to anyone who contacts you, human or AI agent.
- 保持准备：上周的报道也展示了AI市场正在如何改变。所以如果你有401(k)或其他投资，请确保了解你在不同行业中的集中程度。寻找明智的分散化策略。并找到几个可信赖的新闻来源，比如Axios，来理解所有这些乱象。
• Be ready: This past week also showed how AI the market. So if you have a 401(k) or other investments, make sure to understand how concentrated you are in different sectors. Seek out smart diversification strategies. And find a few news sources, like Axios, that you can trust to make sense of all the craziness.
底线：争论任何一个风险不会成为现实，很容易。但当数量这么多时，我们直接控制之外危机整体发生的概率正以每天的速度飙升。
The bottom line: It's easy to argue any one of these risks won't materialize. But when you add up this many, the overall chance of a crisis outside our direct control is spiking by the day.