Anthropic、OpenAI 及其他人工智能公司的顶级高管正在私下推演，若发生灾难性的人工智能事件，公众和政治层面可能会爆发怎样的抗议浪潮。
Top executives at Anthropic, OpenAI and other AI companies are privately gaming out scenarios for a public and political revolt after a catastrophic AI event Why it matters
为何重要这些高管预计将发生大规模事件，最可能的是网络攻击，导致金融服务、互联网连接，甚至电力和供水中断。
These officials anticipate a large-scale event, most likely a cyberattack, that shuts down access to financial services, internet connectivity, or even power and water.
- 不安全的人工智能首次造成重大现实危害，将进一步激化本就对这项技术及其领导者持怀疑态度的公众情绪。这些领导者包括 Anthropic 首席执行官 Dario Amodei、OpenAI 首席执行官 Sam Altman，以及因不愿对其进行监管而受到批评的特朗普总统。
• The first example of significant real-world harm caused by unsafe AI would turn an already wary public further against the technology and its leaders, including Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei and OpenAI CEO Sam Altman, as well as President Trump for reluctance to regulate it. The risk
风险所在尽管情景规划在许多公司和国家安全领域都很常见——五角大楼几十年来一直在进行战争模拟——但不同之处在于，许多顶尖的人工智能研究人员和高管认为，重大事故的发生是不可避免的。
While scenario planning is common within many companies and national security settings — the Pentagon has been running war games for decades — the difference is that many top AI researchers and executives believe a major incident is inevitable
- “OpenAI 会开展应急准备演练，团队在其中讨论并应对各种潜在情景。”该公司发言人表示，“这些情景并非被视为必然发生，而是旨在帮助我们为多种情况做好准备。”
• "OpenAI conducts preparedness exercises where teams discuss and work through a range of potential scenarios," a company spokesperson said. "These scenarios are not treated as inevitable, but are meant to help us prepare for a variety of circumstances."
- Anthropic 拒绝置评。
• Anthropic declined to comment.
深入分析：无论失控的恶意智能体群是否从内部测试环境中突破限制，还是恶意行为者找到意想不到的方式利用现有模型，责任推诿的游戏都将随之开始。
Zoom in: The blame game will start whether a rogue-agent swarm breaks containment from an internal testing environment or a bad actor finds unexpected ways to use available models.
- 最近针对韩国金融机构的一系列攻击——包括两家银行被曝遭入侵——表明，仅一人就能造成多大破坏。
• A recent campaign targeting South Korean financial organizations — including reported breaches at two banks — shows the damage one person can do.
- 据网络安全公司 CrowdStrike 称，一名来自中国的黑客据称利用了中国开发的模型（包括 DeepSeek）的人工智能工具，窃取了数万名银行客户的数据。该攻击者还使用 Claude Code 寻求帮助，寻找出售被盗数据的渠道。
• A hacker from China allegedly used AI tools from China-developed models, including DeepSeek, to steal data from tens of thousands of bank customers. The attacker used Claude Code to ask for help finding places to sell the stolen data, according to cybersecurity firm CrowdStrike.
顶级人工智能规划者认为，民主党在中期选举后崛起，将迅速采取行动限制人工智能发展，但也将面临重大挑战。
Top AI planners assume Democrats ascendant after the midterms, will move fast to shut down AI but will face significant challenges.
- 年事已高的国会与人工智能革命脱节，可能会发现自己难以应对。
• An aging Congress, out of touch with the AI revolution, could find itself out of its depth.
- 全球经济如今与人工智能基础设施的建设深度交织。任何放缓这一进程的行为，都可能对本就脆弱的经济造成沉重打击。
• The global economy is now heavily intertwined with an AI infrastructure buildout. Slowing it down could hit an already fragile economy hard.
- 目前存在太多开源模型，它们已可被自由下载并用于制造危害。大多数网络安全专家认为，这一问题只能通过利用人工智能来对抗失控的人工智能才能解决。
• Too many open-weight models exist that can already be freely downloaded and used to cause harm, a problem most cybersecurity pros see as solvable only by using AI to fight rogue AI. Between the lines
言外之意这项规划包括针对最坏情况开展“红队测试”。其重点主要是加快对国会成员的教育。
The planning involves red-teaming for worst-case scenarios. It focuses mainly on racing to educate members of Congress.
- 企业高管清楚，目前通过监管的可能性微乎其微，但他们仍希望塑造美国领导人在首次灾难性事件发生后将参考的立法和政策。
• Company executives know regulation has no chance of passing right now, but still want to shape the legislation and policies U.S. leaders will turn to after a first catastrophic event.
我们正在关注：许多人工智能行业的内部人士告诉 Axios，他们认为未来 6 到 12 个月内将发生重大事件。
What we're watching: Many AI industry insiders told Axios they believe a major event will occur in the next six to 12 months.
- 尽管民主党掌控着众议院和参议院，但这些企业仍将政治分裂视为常态，包括民主党内部也是如此。
• Even with Democrats in control of the House and Senate, the companies see fractured politics as the norm, including within the Democratic Party.
- 一些民主党提出的最严厉方案包括禁止超级智能或暂停先进人工智能的开发。
• Some of the most heavy-handed Democratic proposals include banning superintelligence or pausing advanced AI development.
- 另一些方案则获得了跨党派支持，甚至部分行业也参与其中，例如要求为先进人工智能设置“关闭开关”。但专家们对试图关闭所有人工智能系统的可行性提出了质疑。
• Others have bipartisan support and even some industry buy-in, including a required kill switch on advanced AI. But experts have questioned the viability of trying to turn off all AI systems.
核心结论：在真正的危机中，华盛顿可以搁置党派分歧。一位民主党助手指出，在新冠疫情和 2008 年金融危机期间，各方曾展现出合作精神。
The bottom line: In a real crisis, Washington can set partisan differences aside. One Democratic aide pointed to cooperation during COVID and the 2008 financial crisis.