宾夕法尼亚州州长乔什·夏皮罗是美国最大摇摆州的一位选举常胜将军——并被广泛视为2028年总统大选的有力竞争者。但两党策略师都质疑他究竟经受过多大考验。
Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro is an electoral juggernaut in America's biggest swing state — and he's widely seen as a likely contender for president in 2028. But strategists in both parties question how tested he really is.
- 夏皮罗的成功——他在多场全州范围的选举中轻松获胜——带有一个注脚：他在最近的竞选中未曾面对资金雄厚的对手，这导致一些政坛内部人士认为，他比其履历显示的更像是一张“王牌”（不可预测因素）。
• Shapiro's success — he's cruised to victory in multiple statewide races — has come with an asterisk: He hasn't faced a well-financed opponent in recent contests, leading some political insiders to see him as more of a wildcard than his resume suggests.
为何重要：夏皮罗缺乏经历激烈、残酷竞选的经验，可能在2028年民主党初选中成为一种劣势，届时如果他是热门候选人，将面临铺天盖地的攻击性广告、对手调查研究以及拥有深厚资金的对手。
Why it matters: Shapiro's unfamiliarity with intense, bruising campaigns could become a liability in the 2028 Democratic primary, where if he was a top candidate, he'd be confronted with a barrage of attack ads, opposition research and rivals with deep pockets.
- 一位熟悉宾夕法尼亚州政局的民主党操盘手表示，鉴于夏皮罗缺乏实战检验，“他极有可能拥有一副惊人的‘玻璃下巴’——成为2028年的斯科特·沃克。”
• A plugged-in Democratic operative in Pennsylvania suggested that because of Shapiro's lack of being tested, "it is totally possible that he has an incredible glass jaw — and that he is the Scott Walker of 2028."
- 沃克曾是摇摆州威斯康星州的州长，在文书档案上看是潜在总统候选人的优秀人选，但在进入2016年共和党初选后却惨遭滑铁卢。
• Walker was the swing-state Wisconsin governor who looked good on paper as a potential presidential candidate but flopped after entering the 2016 GOP primary.
深度观察：在下周的选举中，夏皮罗正在竞选连任“基石州”州长的第二个四年任期。根据最新民调，他有望以两位数的优势击败共和党挑战者斯泰西·加里蒂。
Zoom in: In next week's election, Shapiro is running for a second four-year term as the Keystone State's governor. He's on pace to defeat Republican challenger Stacy Garrity by double digits, according to the latest polls.
- 资金差距巨大：据广告追踪公司AdImpact统计，夏皮罗在竞选广告上已投入4200万美元。
• The money gap is gargantuan: Shapiro has dropped $42 million on campaign ads, according to the ad-tracking firm AdImpact.
作为州财政部长的加里蒂在广告上仅花费300万美元——在宾夕法尼亚州这样一个广告市场昂贵的大州里，这不过是九牛一毛。
Garrity, the state's treasurer, has spent just $3 million on ads — a drop in the ocean in a state as large as Pennsylvania, with its expensive advertising markets.
- 并非加里蒂偏爱敲门拉票等方式而非电视广告。她只是力量悬殊：竞选财务报告显示，本周期她仅筹集约1100万美元，而夏皮罗筹集了6400万美元。
• It's not that Garrity prefers, say, door-knocking to TV ads. She's just outmatched: Campaign finance reports show she's only raised about $11 million this cycle, compared with Shapiro's $64 million.
- 更不利于加里蒂的是，共和党州长协会（RGA）并未在电视广告方面伸出援手。
• Making matters worse for Garrity, the Republican Governors Association (RGA) has not come to her rescue on the airwaves.
宾夕法尼亚州资深共和党策略师克里斯托弗·尼古拉斯表示，这种局势“让夏皮罗得以在本质上是一面倒的竞选中轻松过关”。尼古拉斯说：“很多人认为他经不起打击，因为他从未真正在一周内承受过一百万美元的负面电视广告轰炸。”
Christopher Nicholas, a longtime GOP strategist in Pennsylvania, said the dynamic has "allowed Shapiro to skate with essentially having a one-sided campaign." • "A lot of people think he has a glass chin because he's never really had a million dollars of negative TV shoved down his throat in a week," Nicholas said.
2022年，夏皮罗首次竞选州长时捡了个便宜，对手是共和党人道格·马斯特里亚诺，这位极右翼州参议员被普遍视为历史上最弱的候选人之一，甚至连共和党建制派都不喜欢他。
Shapiro caught a break when he first ran for governor in 2022 against Republican Doug Mastriano a far-right state senator widely viewed as a historically weak candidate disliked even by the GOP establishment.
- 马斯特里亚诺资金短缺，那年在广告上仅花费200万美元。夏皮罗及其盟友则花费了5500万美元。
• Mastriano, who was strapped for cash, spent just $2 million on ads that year. Shapiro and his allies spent $55 million.
- 一个保守派外部团体在该选举中投入800万美元用于广告，但在9月份放弃了这场竞选，此前夏皮罗表示支持学校券制，这是许多右翼人士的优先事项。共和党州长协会（RGA）则未介入该竞选。
• A conservative outside group invested $8 million on advertising in the election but abandoned the race that September after Shapiro embraced school vouchers, a priority for many on the right. The RGA stayed out of the race. In both of his gubernatorial contests
在两次州长竞选中夏皮罗在民主党初选中均无对手，几乎没有经历过党内选举斗争。
Shapiro has run unopposed in the Democratic primaries, leaving him little experience of intra-party electoral battles.
- 夏皮罗两次当选宾夕法尼亚州检察长时情况类似。他在竞选支出上远超共和党对手。
• It was a similar story when Shapiro twice was elected as Pennsylvania's attorney general. He vastly outspent his Republican opponents.
他们怎么说：夏皮罗的盟友辩称，他之所以只有象征性对手，正是因为他是一位强劲的候选人——更有才干的共和党人不愿浪费时间和金钱，去挑战一位难以击败、筹款能力极强的对手。这位州长有时还通过拉拢共和党捐赠者，切断了共和党对手的资金来源。
What they're saying: Shapiro's allies argue that he's had token opposition precisely because he's a formidable candidate — that more talented Republicans don't want to waste their time and money running against such a hard-to-beat opponent with big fundraising chops. The governor has also sometimes cut off his GOP rivals' money spigots by courting Republican donors.
- “孙子兵法讲究挑选想打的仗，”宾夕法尼亚州民主党广告制作人道克·斯韦策说。“乔什有一种挑选对手的非凡本事。”
• "Sun Tzu was always about picking the battle you want to fight," said Doc Sweitzer, a Pennsylvania Democratic ad maker. "Josh has an incredible skill of picking the opponents."
- 当被问及置评时，夏皮罗发言人曼努埃尔·邦德表示：“在宾夕法尼亚州赢得选举、对唐纳德·特朗普形成制衡，是我们唯一关注的事——信不信由你，这比坐在家里给Axios提供不具名引语要难得多。”
• Asked for comment, Shapiro spokesperson Manuel Bonder said: "Winning elections in Pennsylvania and putting a check on Donald Trump is the only thing we're focused on — and believe it or not, it's harder than sitting at home giving unnamed quotes to Axios."
加里蒂的发言人马特·贝农回应称：“无论多少钱都无法治愈乔什·夏皮罗在过去四年里造成的创伤，这需要新的领导层。”
• Garrity spokesperson Matt Beynon responded: "No amount of money will heal the wounds Josh Shapiro's inflicted over the past four years, it's going to take new leadership." The other side:
对方观点：夏皮罗远非唯一一位未曾与一流的全州范围共和党候选人交手的潜在民主党总统候选人。
Shapiro is far from the only potential Democratic presidential candidate who hasn't squared off against a top-notch statewide Republican candidate.
- 来自深蓝地区的潜在白宫竞逐者——例如纽约州众议员亚历山德拉·奥卡西奥-科尔特斯，或缺乏在全州范围击败共和党人的经验者，如前交通部长皮特·布蒂吉格——要么从未参加过，要么从未赢得过任何具有真正竞争力的大选。
• Possible White House hopefuls from deep-blue territory — such as New York Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, or with little experience defeating Republicans statewide, like former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg, have either never run in or never won remotely competitive general elections. Flashback:
回顾：夏皮罗的批评者认为，无论他鲜少遭遇挑战，他及其团队都未曾应对过大量针对他的反对研究被挖掘出来，或数千万美元的负面广告被投放针对他的情况。
Shapiro's critics make the case that regardless of he hasn't been challenged much, he and his team haven't had to deal with reams of opposition research being dug up about him, or tens of millions of dollars in negative ads aired against him.
- 夏皮罗唯一接近经历这种情况的一次，是2024年他被考虑作为时任副总统卡玛拉·哈里斯的竞选搭档时——批评者称，那结果并不理想。
• One of the only times Shapiro came close to experiencing that was when he was under consideration to be former Vice President Kamala Harris' running mate in 2024 — and, they say, that didn't turn out well.
- 当时，夏皮罗因从未受到过重大审视的话题而面临大量严厉的媒体报道，例如他在大学时期撰写的一篇评论文章，文中称巴勒斯坦人“过于好战”，无法与以色列和平共处。
• Shapiro faced a mountain of tough press over topics on which he'd never faced significant scrutiny, such as a college op-ed piece in which he called Palestinians "too battle-minded" to exist peacefully with Israel.
- 当时，甚至一些夏皮罗最亲密的支持者也觉得，他未能有效回应那些负面报道。
• At the time, even some of Shapiro's closest supporters felt he didn't respond effectively to the negative articles.