宾夕法尼亚州波科诺赛道——在一条著名赛道的发车台高处，乔什·夏皮罗挥舞着一面黑白方格旗，其含义再明确不过：结束了。这个比喻并不完全准确。
POCONO RACEWAY, Pennsylvania — High up in the starting stand of a famed race track, Josh Shapiro waves a black-and-white checkered flag with an unmistakeable meaning: It’s over. The metaphor isn’t entirely accurate.
“我们或许领先，但你正驶入最后直道。人们正紧咬你的脚跟，”这位宾夕法尼亚州州长对《政治报》说。“你必须全力冲刺。”夏皮罗是2028年大选的潜在竞争者，也是2024年副总统人选的热门入围者，他确实有理由乐观——也有理由谨慎。
“We may have a lead, but you're coming down this home stretch. People are nipping at your heels,” the Pennsylvania governor told POLITICO. “You’ve got to run hard.”Shapiro, the potential 2028 contender and 2024 veepstakes short-lister, does have reasons to be optimistic — and careful.
他正威胁要在全国最重要的摇摆州以两位数的优势大胜斯泰西·加里蒂——一位获得总统唐纳德·特朗普背书的候选人。他同时也在检验自己的政治带动效应。
He’s threatening a double-digit blowout over Stacy Garrity, a candidate backed by President Donald Trump, in the most important swing state in the nation. He’s also putting his coattails to the test.
在周二的选举中，其他任何潜在的2028年民主党候选人在自家地盘上的利害关系都不及夏皮罗。他没有加州州长加文·纽森那种旨在反击共和党重划选区的、打破常规的第50号提案，也没有他那份顶级的电子邮件名单。他没有伊利诺伊州州长J.B.普利兹克的数十亿美元，也没有亚利桑那州参议员马克·凯利的深厚捐助者人脉，没有前交通部长皮特·布蒂吉格的广阔版图，也没有肯塔基州州长安迪·贝希尔在红州的资历。
None of the other potential 2028 Democratic candidates has more at stake in their own backyard on Tuesday than Shapiro. He doesn’t have California Gov. Gavin Newsom’s map-breaking Proposition 50, designed to beat back the GOP redistricting, nor his platinum email list. He doesn’t have Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker’s billions or Arizona Sen. Mark Kelly’s deep bench of donors or former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg’s large map or the red-state credentials of Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear.
夏皮罗即将翻转四个竞争激烈的国会席位——并为民主党锁定众议院。宾夕法尼亚州民主党人还可能拿下州参议院的控制权，包括一些严重不公正划分的席位，从而使该党自1992年以来首次实现执政三连胜。
Shapiro is on the brink of flipping four hotly contested congressional seats — and guaranteeing Democrats the House. Pennsylvania Democrats could also take control of the state Senate, including some heavily gerrymandered seats, giving the party a governing trifecta for the first time since 1992.
“我不认为这是我个人的胜利，”他在巡访该州期间对《政治报》说。“我认为这是我们国家的胜利。”这一切都为他通过15美元最低工资以及一系列其他措施铺平了道路，这些措施可能为2028年的总统竞选提供支撑。
“I’m not thinking about this as a victory for me,” he told POLITICO during a swing through the state. “I'm thinking about this as a victory for our country.”All of which paves the way for him to pass a $15 minimum wage and a raft of other measures that could buttress a 2028 presidential bid.
夏皮罗在很大程度上遵循了罗恩·德桑蒂斯式的总统初选竞选理论：先在本州展示主导地位，再向全国扩展——值得注意的是，这一策略对这位佛罗里达州州长并未奏效。
Shapiro is very much following the Ron DeSantis theory of a presidential primary campaign: demonstrate dominance at home before branching out nationally — a strategy, it should be noted, that didn’t pay off for the Florida governor.
“我认为真正伤害德桑蒂斯的是，他决定等到立法会议结束后才宣布参选，而那已经是5月了，”政治策略师戴维·阿克塞尔罗德说。“时间非常宝贵。如果那是他的计划，那就是一次误判。”我们会在年底前看到他走出宾夕法尼亚州的边界吗？“我不知道我的计划是什么，”夏皮罗说。
“I think what really hurt DeSantis was that he decided he wasn't going to announce until after his legislative session, and that was May,” political strategist David Axelrod said. “Time is at a premium. If that’s his plan, that would be a miscalculation.”Will we see him venture beyond Pennsylvania’s boundaries before the end of the year? “I don’t know what my plans are,” Shapiro said.
这一天给人一种既是一场竞选结束、又是另一场竞选开始的感觉。尽管他在中午向约100名听众发表讲话，呼吁他们投票给斯克兰顿市长佩奇·科涅蒂——她正在与众议员罗布·布雷斯纳汉竞争——以及正在挑战参议员罗斯玛丽·布朗的州参议院候选人布莱恩·赖特森，但他正在将自己的言辞全国化。
The day had the feeling of both an ending of one campaign and the beginning of another. Even as he urged a midday audience of about 100 people to vote for Paige Cognetti, the Scranton mayor running against Rep. Rob Bresnahan, and Brian Wrightson, the state Senate candidate challenging Sen. Rosemary Brown, he is nationalizing his rhetoric.
“不要让特朗普夺走你的希望，”他在东斯特劳兹堡大学对聚集的人群说。“不要让他让你感到悲观。不要让他让你觉得改变不可能到来，或者我们必须回头看后视镜寻找答案。答案永远在前方。”
“Don’t let Trump take away your hopefulness,” he told people gathered at East Stroudsburg University. “Don't let him make you feel pessimistic. Don't let him feel like change can't come or that we have to look in the rearview mirror for answers. The answers are always straight ahead.”
然后是他关于“美国梦正在溜走”的固定桥段。他正在将自己的信息扩展到宾夕法尼亚州之外。
Then there’s his set piece about the “American dream slipping away.”He’s broadening out his message beyond the commonwealth.
“我认为我在宾夕法尼亚州所做的工作，我让他们对本州政府产生的信心，希望能恢复他们对民主的一些信念，我希望他们对我们的民主抱有信念，我希望他们感到自己有能力塑造那个美国梦的未来，”夏皮罗告诉我们。
“I think the work I do here in Pennsylvania, the confidence I give them about their government here can hopefully restore some of their faith in democracy, and I want in our democracy, and I want them to feel like they've got power to be able to shape the future of that American dream,” Shapiro told us.
几个小时后，夏皮罗出现在萨尔诺餐厅里，这是老福奇的一家酒馆，以美式奶酪披萨闻名。他让满屋子的顾客安静下来，这些人已经喝了太多滚石啤酒和南瓜马提尼。
A few hours later, Shapiro materializes inside Salerno’s, a tavern in Old Forge known for its American cheese-topped pizza. He sets a room in which patrons already have had a few too many Rolling Rocks and pumpkin martinis.
电视屏幕上正播放着他为赖特森拍摄的竞选广告。他一边紧握双手、咧嘴大笑、一边拍着肩膀穿过房间。
On the televisions, his own ad for Wrightson is playing on TV. He grips and grins and backslaps his way through the room.
在吧台尽头，他拿起五个披萨带在路上吃，钻出门登上大巴，前往另一场科涅蒂的集会。
At the end of the bar, he picks up five pizzas for the road, ducks out the door and boards his bus for another Cognetti rally.
在大选季尾声，夏皮罗的州长连任竞选并未像那些势均力敌、备受网络关注的参议院竞选那样引发轰动。但他的计划同样非同寻常。
Shapiro’s gubernatorial reelect isn’t drawing the buzz of some of the more razor’s-edge, online Senate races in the waning days of election season. But his project is no less remarkable.
“如果我们能在宾夕法尼亚州赢得足够多的席位，改变华盛顿的权力平衡，对唐纳德·特朗普形成制衡，那么我们既能让总统负责，又能在华盛顿推动实事，”夏皮罗说。“同样，在这里宾夕法尼亚州，如果我们能自比尔·克林顿当选以来首次实现‘三重奏’（注：指州长、州参众两院均由同一党控制），我几乎可以立即为数万名处于最低工资标准或以下的宾夕法尼亚人提高工资，也能为其他人提高工资。这是我们能实实在在完成的事情。”在赛道上，他刚拍完一段在波科诺赛道“棘手三角”飞驰的视频，便露出一抹笑容。
“If we can win enough seats here in Pennsylvania to change the balance of power in Washington and be a check on Donald Trump, then we can both hold the president accountable and get stuff done in Washington,” Shapiro says. “Likewise, here in Pennsylvania, if we can win a trifecta for the first time since Bill Clinton's election, I can raise wages almost immediately for tens of thousands of Pennsylvanians who are at or below minimum wage and raise wages for others. That's a concrete thing that we can accomplish.”At the raceway, he has just finished cutting a video racing around the Pocono Raceway’s Tricky Triangle when he flashes a grin.
“我有个惊喜给你们，”他说着，邀请《政治报》记者来到位于波科诺山脚、享有盛名的三弯 NASCAR 赛道上方的发令台。
“I’ve got a surprise for you,” he says, inviting POLITICO to the starting stand above the storied three-turn NASCAR track in the Pocono foothills.
顺着楼梯走上去，宾夕法尼亚地平线上焦橙色的秋叶在飞舞。作为 NASCAR 车迷，夏皮罗已无数次欣赏这般景致。
Up the stairs, the burnt-orange fall foliage dances on the Pennsylvania horizon. It’s a vantage point Shapiro, as a NASCAR fan, has taken in many times.
尽管这背景颇为贴切，但当被问及是否准备好宣布竞选时，他巧妙地避开了。
Despite the apt setting, he deflects when asked if he’s ready to announce the launch of his campaign.
“如果这是个隐喻，”他说，“那它代表的是强势冲刺、完赛。”只有一个小插曲：在挥舞黑白方格旗之前，他先拿起一面绿旗，用力挥舞。
“If this is a metaphor,” he says, “it's for finishing the race strong.”There is just one wrinkle: Before he brandished the black-and-white flag, he picked up a green one, waving it vigorously.
“我觉得你看错了，”夏皮罗笑着说。“我挥的是黑白方格旗，为州长竞选画上句号。”喜欢这个内容？不妨订阅《政治报》的 Playbook 通讯。
“I think you mis-saw that,” Shapiro said with a smile. “I was waving a checkered flag to finish the governor’s race.”Like this content? Considerg up for POLITICO's Playbook newsletter.