宾夕法尼亚州州长乔什·夏皮罗 成为 2028 年总统竞争者的前景，取决于他能否在周二的选举中以压倒性优势连任。
Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro 's chances of being a presidential contender in 2028 are riding on his winning reelection in a landslide Tuesday.
- 纽约州众议员 亚历山德拉·奥卡西奥-科尔特斯 的政治前途，系于一位进步派同僚能否首次拿下一个摇摆州。
• New York Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez's future hinges on whether a fellow progressive can carry a swing state, for once.
- 加利福尼亚州州长 盖文·纽森 必须证明他的国会选区重划赌注为民主党奏了效 —— 同时他还得击退一项由参议员 伯尼·桑德斯 （I-佛蒙特州）支持的州级财富税提案。
• California Gov. Gavin Newsom has to show that his congressional redistricting gambit worked for Democrats — and he needs to beat back a state wealth tax proposal supported by Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.). Driving the news:
新闻看点：觊觎白宫的民主党人在过去一年一直在备战，意在从周二的中期选举中带着势头和 2028 年参选的理由脱颖而出。他们都希望民主党大获全胜 —— 但对每个人而言，某些特定选战显得格外关键。
Democrats eyeing White House runs have spent the past year preparing to emerge from Tuesday's midterms with momentum, and an argument for a 2028 candidacy. They want Democrats to do well — but to each, some races are especially important.
- 有人出于意识形态原因，或为了展示在自家州的实力，将时间和金钱集中投入特定竞选。
• Some have focused their time and money on particular contests for ideological reasons, or a desire to show strength in their home states.
- 也有人在全国范围内分散押注，因此周二不太可能出现大胜或惨败的局面。
• Others have hedged their bets across the nation, so that Tuesday is unlikely to be a huge victory or a significant defeat.
以下是潜在民主党总统竞争者中的佼佼者在本周选举中如何下注 —— 以及对他们而言，成功或失败将是什么模样。亚历山德拉·奥卡西奥-科尔特斯
Here's how the top potential Democratic contenders for president have placed their bets in this week's elections — and what success or failure will look like for them. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez A great night:
大获全胜之夜： AOC 几乎把所有筹码都押在了密歇根州的参议院竞选上，她曾表示，进步派人士 阿卜杜勒·埃尔-赛义德 若能获胜，将 “彻底打破美国的整个政治算式”，并证明 “任何人都能在任何地方获胜”。 • 她正在权衡是竞选总统还是参议员，而她为全国竞选所主张的当选能力，很大程度上取决于埃尔-赛义德能否获胜。
AOC has wagered just about everything on the Senate race in Michigan, where she's said that a win by progressive Abdul El-Sayed would "break open the entire political calculus in America" and show that "anybody can win anywhere." • She's weighing whether to run for president or the Senate, and much of her electability argument for a national campaign hinges on an El-Sayed victory. Progressives are desperate
进步派迫切渴望证明他们自己人能拿下一个总统选战的摇摆州。奥卡西奥-科尔特斯 已向埃尔-赛义德捐款 100 万美元，并多次为其造势助选。
establish that one of their own can carry a presidential battleground state. Ocasio-Cortez has contributed $1 million to help El-Sayed and stumped for him at several events.
- 密歇根州左翼策略师巴维克·拉西亚表示，埃尔赛德获胜“将向全国乃至世界证明，有能力、有勇气的进步民粹主义者能够在美国最具竞争力的摇摆州获胜”。
• An El-Sayed victory "would prove to the country, and the world, that competent, courageous progressive populists can win in the most competitive swing states in America," said Bhavik Lathia, a left-wing strategist from Michigan.
- “对2028年的影响将是巨大的。”
• "The implications for 2028 would be enormous."
- 如果她支持的其他进步派人士——例如加利福尼亚州众议院候选人兰迪·维尔加斯和佛罗里达州参议院候选人安吉·尼克森——周二在摇摆席位选举中获胜，奥卡西奥-科尔特斯将获得额外加分。
• AOC would get bonus points Tuesday if other progressives she's supporting — such as House candidate Randy Villegas in California and Senate candidate Angie Nixon in Florida — win their swing-seat races.
最坏情况：如果埃尔赛德失利，许多进步派人士认为奥卡西奥-科尔特斯竞选总统的可能性将降低。
Worst-case scenario: If El-Sayed loses, many progressives think AOC would be less likely to run for president.
- 这就是为什么她被广泛视为周二面临的压力大于任何其他潜在的民主党总统竞争者，夏皮罗紧随其后。
• That's why she's widely viewed as having more on the line Tuesday than any other potential Democratic contender for president, followed by Shapiro.
夏皮罗周二需要取得压倒性胜利，让民主党总统初选选民认为，他那种“务实办事”的技术官僚式治理风格，是民主党在2028年击败共和党的最佳选择。
Shapiro needs to win so big Tuesday that it makes Democratic presidential primary voters see his technocratic "get shit done" brand of governing as the party's best bet to take down the GOP in 2028.
- 夏皮罗在全国的知名度不如许多2028年总统竞选者，这也是他自己的选择。他今年主要专注于宾夕法尼亚州，即使潜在的总统竞争对手们在全国各地奔波。
• Shapiro is less known nationally than many 2028 hopefuls, and that has been by choice. He's largely focused on Pennsylvania this year, even as would-be rivals for president crisscrossed the country.
- 在美国最大的摇摆州取得大胜，可能会让他脱颖而出。
• A blowout in America's biggest swing state could help him stand out.
- 夏皮罗的好成绩是：以两位数优势击败共和党候选人斯泰西·加里蒂，并帮助三名民主党众议院候选人——珍妮尔·斯蒂尔森、鲍勃·布鲁克斯和佩吉·科涅蒂——击败共和党现任议员，赢得选举。
• A good night for Shapiro would be defeating Republican Stacy Garrity by double digits and carrying three Democratic House candidates — Janelle Stelson, Bob Brooks and Paige Cognetti — across the finish line to defeat Republican incumbents.
- 如果他的“裙带效应”足够强大，能带动第四名民主党众议院候选人鲍勃·哈维获胜，击败以在艰难选举周期中幸存而闻名的共和党众议员布莱恩·菲茨帕特里克，那将是一个极好的夜晚。
• He'd have a great night if his coattails were so long that he pulled a fourth Democratic House hopeful, Bob Harvie, to victory — taking down GOP Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick, who's known for surviving difficult electoral cycles.
- 如果他帮助民主党数十年来首次在哈里斯堡实现“三权合一”，即翻转州参议院控制权，夏皮罗将获得额外加分。
• Shapiro would get extra credit if he helped Democrats win a trifecta in Harrisburg for the first time in decades by flipping control of the state Senate.
如果他所在州只有1至2名民主党人翻转众议院席位，或者他的胜选幅度不足10个百分点，夏皮罗为2028年做的准备将不足。
If only one or two Democrats in his state flip House seats or he wins by less than 10 points, Shapiro's setup for 2028 would fall short.
肯塔基州州长安迪·贝希尔兼任民主党州长协会主席，今年他押注帮助本党夺取全国大多数州长职位的控制权。
Andy Beshear Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear, who moonlights as chair of the Democratic Governors Association, put his chips this year on helping his party take control of a majority of the nation's governorships.
- 如果民主党能翻转两个州长席位以达成该目标，贝希尔将赢得吹嘘资本。他关注爱荷华州、俄亥俄州、佐治亚州和内华达州的竞选。
• Beshear would earn bragging rights if Democrats flip the two governors' seats needed to do that. He's eyeing the races in Iowa, Ohio, Georgia and Nevada.
- “我全神贯注于这些州长竞选，”他对我们表示，并认为结果将有助于决定2028年总统大选的可能性。
• "I am laser-focused on these governors' races," he told us, arguing that the results will help determine what's possible in the 2028 presidential contest.
- “罗布·桑德赢得爱荷华州，爱荷华州就成了摇摆州。艾米·阿克顿赢得俄亥俄州，俄亥俄州就成了摇摆州，”贝希尔说。
• "Rob Sand wins Iowa, Iowa's in play. When Amy Acton wins Ohio, Ohio's in play," Beshear said.
今年，当民主党州长协会拒绝大力投资吉娜·伊诺霍萨的得克萨斯州州长竞选时，贝希尔在一些拉美裔民主党人中树敌。
Beshear made enemies among some Latino Democrats this year when the DGA rebuffed calls to invest heavily in Gina Hinojosa's campaign for Texas governor.
- 如果伊诺霍萨以极微弱劣势败给得州州长格雷格·阿博特，或爆出冷门获胜，贝希尔的决策将面临严厉审视——他在2028年竞选中可能会与一些拉美裔领袖产生矛盾。
• If Hinojosa loses to Texas Gov. Greg Abbott by a razor-thin margin or pulls an upset, Beshear's decision-making will come under heavy scrutiny — and he could have a problem with some Latino leaders in a 2028 campaign.
加文·纽森 纽森因回应特朗普总统推动在其他州创造更多共和党众议院席位、反手在加州通过一项成功的选民提案以同样方式应对，赢得了全国许多“MS NOW妈妈”和“抵抗派”自由派的青睐。
Gavin Newsom Newsom won over many MS NOW moms and "resistance" liberals across the country when he responded to President Trump's push to create more GOP House seats in other states by fighting back with a successful voter proposition to do the same in California.
- 他的目标是通过这一变革获得五个民主党席位，帮助民主党夺回众议院控制权。这是他周二必须跨过的门槛。
• His goal has been to gain five Democratic seats from the change to help Democrats take back the House. That's his bar to clear Tuesday.
- 部分政治内部人士现在认为，民主党在全国范围内可能翻转20个或更多众议院席位，因此纽森的贡献可能不像曾经认为的那样具有决定性。
• Some political insiders now think Democrats could gain 20 or more House seats across the country, so Newsom's contribution might not be as decisive as once thought.
- 如果他反对的本州选票上的亿万富翁财富税提案未能通过，纽森将获得一场政治胜利。
• Newsom would score a political win if a proposed billionaire wealth tax on the ballot in his home state, which he opposes, fails.
如果加州选民批准该税收，或民主党在加州翻转的众议院席位少于五个，将削弱纽森在加州的影响力。
If California voters approve the tax or Democrats flip fewer than five House seats there, it would diminish Newsom's California clout.
长期以来，对佐治亚州参议员乔恩·奥索夫的批评是，他在2021年赢得席位是靠同为佐治亚州参议员的拉斐尔·沃诺克的“带动效应”。
Jon Ossoff long-running knock against Georgia Sen. Jon Ossoff has been that he won his seat in 2021 by riding his fellow Peach State Sen. Raphael Warnock's coattails.
- 今年奥索夫有机会证明自己不需要沃诺克——后者不在选票上。他正朝着这个方向迈进，民调显示他舒适地领先共和党挑战者迈克·柯林斯。
• Ossoff has the chance this year to prove he doesn't need Warnock, who isn't on the ticket. He's on his way to doing just that, with polls showing him comfortably leading GOP challenger Mike Collins.
- 但要取得真正的大胜，奥索夫需要展示他在该州有足够的影响力，帮助民主党佐治亚州州长候选人凯莎·兰斯·博托姆斯获胜。
• But to have a truly great night, Ossoff needs to show that he has enough sway in his state to help pull Democratic gubernatorial candidate Keisha Lance Bottoms to victory.
民主党人士表示，如果博托姆斯落败，奥索夫离开参议院竞选总统的可能性会更小，因为佐治亚州州长有权在参议员离职时进行临时任命。
If Bottoms were to lose, Democrats say, Ossoff would be even less likely to leave the Senate for a presidential run, since Georgia's governor has the power to make a temporary appointment if a senator steps down.
- 奥索夫本人表示，他对2028年竞选“零兴趣”。但贝拉克·奥巴马在跳入2008年大选前也曾发表过类似言论。
• Ossoff, for his part, has said he has "zero interest" in a 2028 bid. But Barack Obama made similar comments before jumping into the 2008 race.
卡玛拉·哈里斯 前副总统卡玛拉·哈里斯号召选民反击共和党的重划选区以及最高法院近期关于《投票权法案》的裁决，后者威胁到国会中的黑人代表性。
Kamala Harris Former Vice President Kamala Harris has rallied voters to fight back against GOP redistricting and a recent Supreme Court decision on the Voting Rights Act that threatens Black representation in Congress.
- 黑人选民投票率大幅上升——尤其是在南方——可能强化哈里斯应成为提名人的论点。
• A huge uptick in turnout among Black voters — especially in the South — could strengthen the argument that Harris should be the nominee.
- 哈里斯本周期还为多位竞选州长和参议员的黑人民主党人助选，他们的成功可能给她带来提振。
• Harris also has stumped for several Black Democrats running for governor and Senate this cycle, and their success could give her a boost.
哈里斯并未将自己的政治前途押注在本周期的任何特定候选人身上。但如果博托姆斯等女性或黑人候选人落败，可能会加深一些民主党人的怀疑，即除白人男性外，其他人能否在2028年赢得总统大选。
Harris hasn't hitched her political fortunes to any specific contenders in this cycle. But a loss by female or Black candidates such as Bottoms could deepen some Democrats' skepticism that someone other than a white man could win the presidency in 2028.
皮特·布蒂吉格 本周期布蒂吉格广撒网，背书超过100名候选人，并亲自为其中一半以上助选。
Pete Buttigieg Buttigieg has spread his chips around this election cycle, endorsing more than 100 candidates and stumping in person for more than half of them.
- 这帮助布蒂吉格巩固了其品牌形象：一位广受欢迎的民主党人，善于条理清晰地阐述议题，且能在全美任何地方开展竞选活动。
• That's helped Buttigieg cement his brand as a well-liked Democrat who methodically explains issues and can campaign anywhere in America.
布蒂吉格的中期选举策略属于低风险、低回报型——因此他可能在周二沦为一个后记。
Buttigieg's midterm strategy has been low-risk, low-reward — so he could end up as an afterthought Tuesday.