众议员亚历山大·奥卡西奥-科尔特斯（民主党-纽约州）将于周四前往深红选区，在密歇根州的上半岛为阿卜杜勒·埃尔-赛义德的参议院竞选助选，这场选举可能会决定该参议院控制权的归属。这也可能会塑造她自己的政治未来。
Rep. Alexandria Ocasio Cortez, D-N.Y., is heading into deep-red territory on Thursday, campaigning in Michigan’s Upper Peninsula for Abdul El-Sayed in a Senate race that could determine control of the chamber. It could also shape her own political future.
作为一名进步派人士，埃尔-赛义德正与前共和党众议员迈克·罗杰斯展开势均力敌的竞选。他在8月份险胜温和派众议员海莉·史蒂文斯后赢得了民主党提名，此前这场残酷而激烈的党内初选演变成了关于该党发展方向的代理人战争。
El-Sayed, a progressive, is running neck and neck with former Republican Rep. Mike Rogers. He won the Democratic nomination in August after narrowly defeating Rep. Haley Stevens, a moderate, in a bitter and bruising primary that became a proxy war over the direction of the party.
随着埃尔-赛义德成为领衔候选人，民主党人正押注于奉行进步政策的自由派候选人能够在摇摆州获胜——这是一场充满风险的赌博，其反响将波及2028年总统大选和进步运动。
With El-Sayed at the top of the ticket, Democrats are betting that a liberal candidate with progressive policies can win in a purple state — a risky wager that will reverberate through the 2028 presidential race and the progressive movement.
他们辩称，一场胜利可能有助于推动奥卡西奥-科尔特斯在2028年竞选总统。
A win, they argue, could help propel Ocasio-Cortez to mount a presidential run in 2028.
“这里的狗已经抓住了汽车，我们很快就会知道，当进步派说强有力的进步派候选人可以在摇摆地区竞争时，他们是否正确，”一名进步派众议院民主党人对MS NOW表示，由于需要坦诚发言，该人士要求匿名。
“The dog has caught the car here and we will soon find out if progressives are right when they say that a strong progressive candidate can compete in purple places,” a progressive House Democrat told MS NOW, requesting anonymity to speak candidly.
“我认为AOC的未来是光明的，它并不取决于这场密歇根州参议院竞选，”这名议员表示，“但它肯定会给她带来很大帮助。”奥卡西奥-科尔特斯似乎意识到了利害关系。本月早些时候在纽约市为埃尔-赛义德举办的一场筹款活动上，她用宏大的言辞将他的竞选形容为一种证明。
“I think AOC’s future is bright and it doesn’t hinge on this Michigan Senate race,” the lawmaker said, “but it would certainly help her a lot.”Ocasio-Cortez appears to understand the stakes. At a fundraiser for El-Sayed in New York City earlier this month, she cast his race as proof in sweeping terms.
“我们所做的是，我们彻底打破了美国整个政治计算的底层逻辑——就这么简单，”奥卡西奥-科尔特斯说，新闻机构获得的一份该活动的录音显示。
“What we do is that we break open the entire political calculus in America — period,” Ocasio-Cortez said, according to an audio recording of the event obtained by news outlets.
“因为如果你能赢，如果阿卜杜勒能在密歇根赢，”她说，“任何人都能在任何地方赢。”那个任何人可能就是她。
“Because if you can win, if Abdul can win in Michigan,” she said, “anybody can win anywhere.”That anybody may be her.
周四的行程将是自埃尔-赛义德在初选中获胜以来，奥卡西奥-科尔特斯首次访问密歇根州。她将与他一起出席在埃斯卡纳巴、铁山和马凯特的市民大会，这些都是他的“本不该如此艰难”巴士之旅的经停站。
Thursday’s swing will be Ocasio-Cortez’a first trip to Michigan since El-Sayed’s primary win. She will join him at town halls in Escanaba, Iron Mountain and Marquette, all stops on his “Shouldn’t Be This Hard” bus tour.
这些活动的投票率和热烈程度可能会在很大程度上说明埃尔-赛义德在11月获胜的机会以及奥卡西奥-科尔特斯的政治未来。
Turnout and excitement to those events could say a lot about El-Sayed’s chances in November and Ocasio-Cortez’s political future.
密歇根州的上半岛多年来一直是保守派地盘。据The Downballot统计，涵盖该地区的密歇根州第1国会选区在2024年以超过20个百分点的优势支持了特朗普，自2017年以来一直由共和党众议员杰克·伯格曼代表。
Michigan’s Upper Peninsula has for years been conservative territory. Michigan’s 1st Congressional district, which encompasses the area, broke for Trump by more than 20 percentage points in 2024, according to The Downballot, and it’s been represented by Republican Rep. Jack Bergman since 2017.
这并非埃尔-赛义德首次涉足保守派地盘。周一，他在X平台上发布了一段视频，内容来自爱奥尼亚县的一场活动，他指出，这是一个R+32（偏向共和党32个百分点）的地区。
This won’t be El-Sayed’s first foray into conservative turf. On Monday, he posted a video on X from an event in Ionia County, which, he noted, is an R+32 area.
“我们来找你了，迈克，”埃尔-赛义德将矛头指向他的共和党对手，这样说道。
“We’re coming for ya, Mike,” El-Sayed said, taking aim at his Republican opponent.
就罗杰斯而言，他似乎并未受到惊扰。上周在密歇根州海兰的一个竞选造势点被问及巴士之旅时，他告诉记者：“我可能会帮他的巴士加满油。”
Rogers, for his part, doesn’t appear fazed. Asked about the bus tour during a campaign stop in Highland, Mich., last week, he told reporters, “I may fill up the bus for him.”
“他要上上半岛去，并且会受到相当冷遇，”罗杰斯说，“他真的需要巩固他在南方的基本盘。这告诉我，他们已经如我所见的那样绝望了。”尽管如此，将一位大牌嘉宾带到一个如此红的地区表明，埃尔-赛义德的竞选团队预计会有可观的投票率。人群的规模和活力可能会在很大程度上说明他在11月获胜的机会。强劲的出席情况也可能在这个关键时刻为奥卡西奥-科尔特斯带来轰动效应。
“He’s gonna go up to the Upper Peninsula and get a pretty cold welcome,” Rogers said. “He really needs to shore up his base down here. That tells me they are desperate as I’ve ever seen.”Still, bringing a marquee guest to a region this red suggests the El-Sayed campaign expects a decent turnout. The size and energy of the crowds could say a lot about his chances in November. A strong showing could also generate buzz for Ocasio-Cortez at a critical moment.
这次行程发生在距离选举日还有19天之际，正值通常会将一个政党最重量级人物吸引到竞选活动中的最后冲刺阶段。更具重大意义的是，中期选举的次日标志着2028年总统竞选周期的非官方开始，此时潜在候选人正在密切关注他们的计划。
The trip comes 19 days before Election Day, during the final sprint that typically brings a party’s heaviest hitters to the campaign trail. Perhaps more significantly, the day after the midterms marks the unofficial start of the 2028 presidential campaign cycle, a time where potential candidates are honing in on their plans.
奥卡西奥-科尔特斯在上个月接受《纽约时报》采访时表示，她将在中期选举后权衡2028年的三个选项：寻求连任众议员、竞选参议员或竞选总统。
In an interview with the New York Times last month, Ocasio-Cortez said she would weigh three options for 2028 after the midterms: seeking reelection to the House, running for the Senate or running for president.
“有一种观点认为，这是一个非常独特的政治窗口，在政治中，往往你确实只有一次机会，”奥卡西奥-科尔特斯说。“而且你不会——生活总体而言也是如此——生活不会等着你准备好去面对事情。有时生活只会让你准备好去面对。”她选择在密歇根州花时间并非巧合，因为这一决定即将来临。该州在过去五次总统大选中都支持了胜选者。它还将举办2028年民主党初选日程中的第五场比赛——一个可能会对该党提名谁产生巨大影响的早期席位。
“There’s an argument that some make that this is a very unique political window and, oftentimes in politics, you do only get one shot,” Ocasio-Cortez said. “And you don’t — and just in life in general — life doesn’t wait for you to be ready for things. Sometimes life just makes things ready for you.”It’s no coincidence that she’s spending time in Michigan as that decision approaches. The state has backed the winner in each of the past five presidential elections. It will also hold the fifth contest of the 2028 Democratic primary calendar — an early slot that could give it outsized influence over who the party nominates.
对于民主党未来的命运来说，这使得密歇根州成为政治世界的中心。对于进步派而言，利害关系双向存在。
For the Democratic Party’s future, that makes Michigan the center of the political universe. For progressives, the stakes cut both ways.
如果埃尔-赛义德在11月落败，“这将巩固这样一种叙事：进步派对摇摆州和摇摆选区的政党形象不利，并且会加剧我们党团中几个派系之间的分裂，”这名进步派众议院民主党人表示。
If El-Sayed loses in November, “it will cement this narrative that progressives are bad for the brand in swing states and purple districts, and it will inflame the divisions between a couple of factions in our caucus,” the progressive House Democrat said.
该议员表示，众议院民主党党团中较为温和的成员和进步派成员之间“总是存在一点摩擦”，因为中间派“私下里抱怨进步派正在拖累我们的党团形象并伤害我们”，而自由派则“会反驳说我们有这些毫无信念的无聊候选人，这才是伤害我们的原因”。
The lawmaker said there’s “always a little bit of friction” between the more moderate and progressive members of the House Democratic Caucus, as centrists “quietly mutter that progressives are dragging down our brand and hurting us,” while liberals “will counter that we have these boring candidates who don’t believe in anything and that’s what’s hurting us.”
这名议员说，密歇根州的竞选“将成为一个非常有趣的某种测试案例，它肯定会助长其中一种叙事”。}
Michigan’s race, the lawmaker said, “will be a very interesting sort of test case and it’ll fuel one of those narratives for sure.”