The candidates with the most at stake in Tuesday’s midterm elections won’t necessarily be the ones on the ballot.

For a growing field of prospective 2028 presidential contenders in both parties, the results could offer an early test of their political strength, their influence within their respective parties and their ability to shape the next presidential race at a time when both parties are looking to move away from the status quo.

From California Gov. Gavin Newsom’s restricting efforts to how the outcome impacts Vice President Vance’s chances, Tuesday’s returns could provide an early indication of which would-be White House hopefuls emerge stronger — and which face some vulnerabilities.

For Democrats, Michigan’s closely watched Senate race could provide a particularly consequential test for the party’s left flank and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.), who is considering a potential presidential bid or a run for a New York Senate seat.

A win by progressive Democrat Abdul El-Sayed over Republican Mike Rogers, a former congressman, would give Ocasio-Cortez a powerful argument that her brand of politics can prevail in a critical battleground state that Democrats will need in 2028.

Ocasio-Cortez has been selective about the candidates she campaigns for, making her decision to throw her support behind El-Sayed particularly significant. A win would not only underscore her political instincts but also inevitably boost her case for a White House bid.

“If El-Sayed can win there, AOC can win anywhere,” said Democratic strategist Brad Bannon, echoing the line that Ocasio-Cortez — or AOC as she is sometimes known — has been using in recent weeks to make the case that it could be her time.

“An El-Sayed victory in America’s great industrial heartland would prove an aggressive progressive like AOC could win the 2028 presidential election,” Bannon continued. “His win would be proof positive that voters nationally are sick and tired of business as usual.

“He and AOC represent a new kind of politics sweeping the nation and demonstrate the pressing need for fresh political faces,” Bannon added.

At the same time, if El-Sayed loses and a string of more moderate Democrats win, it could give an immediate shot in the arm to potential candidates like former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg, Sen. Mark Kelly (Ariz.) and Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear.

“If El-Sayed loses, it will be a major exclamation point for moderates who have been saying, ‘Wake up guys, we can’t win national races with these folks,’” one major Democratic donor said. “And that means folks like Beshear and Kelly can start making that argument to the Democratic electorate in the next few months.

Sen. Jon Ossoff (D), who is on the ballot unlike some of his potential White House contenders, would also benefit from a solid performance in his reelection campaign in Georgia.

While Democrats initially considered Ossoff to be in a tighter race, he is now expected to win against Rep. Mike Collins (R-Ga.) on Tuesday. And while he has pledged to remain a senator for his entire term, the Democrats anticipate he might be drafted into a presidential campaign.

“A big night sets up the momentum for a potential run and the public perception around it. It’ll be a big deal,” said one prominent Democratic strategist. Newsom also has some of his own political interests riding on Tuesday’s outcome.

If Democrats score sweeping victories — and double-digit gains in the House — he can claim credit for taking action with his redistricting efforts to help his party. Even a narrower victory could help bolster his presidential prospects if newly redrawn congressional districts in California help deliver a majority in the House.

But it could also hand Newsom evidence that his aggressive and confrontational tack with President Trump and other Republicans has been highly effective.

“Even if it’s a narrow win, he’s going to get a lot of credit and he can leverage that to show he did something,” said Susan Del Percio, the veteran Republican strategist, who does not support Trump. “He can show he’s a fighter, not just a talker.”For some Republicans, the stakes on Tuesday are just as high.

Vance could have the most on the line, depending on GOP performance in the elections. If Republicans get trounced in races across the country, it may cause Republicans to pivot from Trump and MAGA and create an immediate opening for other Republicans.

Major losses in both chambers would also put pressure on Vance to begin to move away from Trump, something he has been reluctant to do.

“It would definitely leave a vacuum in the Republican Party for new voices to come in,” Del Percio said. “Depending on how big the win for Democrats is, there are going to be some openings for Republicans.

“I think there are going to be a lot of voices speaking out because it will truly be the first time Donald Trump is a lame duck,” she added.

One former Trump campaign aide agreed that Vance is “in a really tough place” if the election goes sideways.

“If Tuesday goes poorly as expected, it’s going to make life even more difficult for him because how does he create any distance from Trump?” the former aide said. “He’s in a lose-lose situation.”

“Not only that but the only chance Republicans have of winning in 2028 is if Democrats nominate AOC or a Bernie-clone,” the GOP strategist said. “If the Democrats nominate a normie, the race is over, I can tell you that.”Secretary of State Marco Rubio, often mentioned as a 2028 hopeful, could also be a victim of the fallout, Republicans say, but spared the brunt of it by the nonpolitical nature of his role.

Democratic strategist Fernand Amandi, who is consulting in two key Florida races including the gubernatorial race, said while the potential 2028 candidates have a lot riding on the midterms, “we’ve first got to see what the environment looks like when the smoke clears and that will begin on Wednesday morning.”

“But right now, it’s a jump ball,” Amandi said. ‘What makes this so interesting is that there is no clear cut person in the lead.”