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澳洲央行警告退休潮将考验澳大利亚养老基金RBA Warns Retirement Wave Will Test Australian Pension Funds

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澳大利亚央行警告称,随着未来十年数百万人步入退休并提取储蓄,该国规模达 4.8 万亿澳元(约合 3.4 万亿美元)的养老金行业正面临一系列新挑战,资金将出现现金流出。

Australia’s central bank has warned the nation’s A$4.8 trillion ($3.4 trillion) pension industry is facing a fresh set of challenges as millions of people enter retirement over the next decade and funds face cash outflows as people draw down their savings.

澳洲储备银行助理行长布拉德·琼斯周一在墨尔本举行的《澳洲金融评论》超级年金与财富峰会上表示,所谓的超级年金部门已成为国内资产的大额持有者,并在新冠疫情等市场压力时期,历史上一直发挥着“逆周期稳定力量”的作用。

The so-called superannuation sector has become a large owner of domestic assets and has historically been a “countercyclical stabilizing force,” in times of market stress such as the Covid-19 pandemic, Reserve Bank of Australia Assistant Governor Brad Jones told the AFR Super and Wealth Summit in Melbourne on Monday.

琼斯说,历史上每周 10 亿至 20 亿澳元的净流入帮助该部门吸收冲击。他警告称,随着更多基金因退休人员增加和提取储蓄而转为净现金流出状态,这一缓冲垫可能会随着时间的推移变得不那么可靠。预计未来十年将有约 250 万人退休。

Jones said weekly net inflows of A$1 billion–A$2 billion have historically helped the sector absorb stress. He warned that cushion may become less dependable over time as more funds move into net cash-outflow positions as more people retire and draw on their savings. About 2.5 million people are expected to retire over the next decade.

琼斯说:“当我们审视这一切时,一些非常强劲的顺风将开始变成逆风,只需要更审慎的管理。”他补充说,他也担心行业内部分服务提供商(包括基金管理)存在集中度问题。

“When we look at all of that, what have been some very powerful tailwinds are going to start to become headwinds and just require more astute management,” Jones said, adding he was also concerned about concentration among some of the service providers in the industry, including funds’ administration.

对于澳洲央行下周议息会议是否会再次加息的提问,琼斯拒绝作答。

Jones declined to answer a question on whether the RBA is set to hike interest rates again at its meeting next week.

该国最大的两家超级年金基金——Aware Super 和 Australian Retirement Trust 的高管表示,他们已将流动性管理作为优先事项,以预应更多会员退休和潜在的市场冲击。

Executives from two of the nation’s largest super funds, Aware Super and Australian Retirement Trust, said they had prioritized their liquidity management in anticipation of more members entering retirement and potential market shocks.

“甚至在我们构建投资团队的方式上,我们也专门设立了流动性负责人,着眼并聚焦于许多与退休储蓄以及市场压力相关的问题,”Aware Super 首席执行官迪安·斯图尔特在同一小组讨论中表示。

“Even in the way that we’re structuring our investment team, we have deliberately put in a head of liquidity looking and focusing in on a lot of these issues” that are related to both retirement savings but also market stresses, Aware Super CEO Deanne Stewart told the same panel.

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