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专家提及1973年战争之际,以色列举行大规模军事演习以演练应对突袭Israel drills for surprise attack with massive military exercise as expert invokes 1973 war

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以色列国防军正在利用2023年10月7日袭击事件的教训,演练突袭和渗透场景。(Amir Levy/盖蒂图片社)The IDF is practicing surprise attack and infiltration scenarios using lessons from the Oct. 7, 2023, assault. (Amir Levy/Getty Images)

以色列军方周日启动大规模国内军事演习,旨在应对突发边境渗透和针对以色列北部及中部的地面突袭,调动多个师级部队及空中力量,正值地区紧张局势升级之际。

The Israeli military launched large-scale domestic military exercises on Sunday to counter surprise border infiltrations and ground raids across northern and central Israel, mobilizing multiple divisions and air assets amid rising regional tensions.

以色列国防军(IDF)表示,演习将持续48小时,参演部队包括北方司令部第210师、约旦河西岸师、中央司令部第98师和第96师,以及以色列空军。

The drills, set to continue over 48 hours, came as an Israeli security expert invoked the 1973 Yom Kippur War, when Egypt and Syria used exercises to disguise preparations for a surprise attack, warning that escalating tensions in the region could in fact trigger what he described as a "dangerous miscalculation."

以色列国防军称,演习定于10月27日以色列大选前夕举行,旨在“保持部队警觉性和备战状态,加强保卫社区的能力,并充分利用空中力量进行区域防御”。

The large-scale maneuvers, the IDF said, involve the Northern Command’s 210th Division, the West Bank Division, and the Central Command’s 98th and 96th divisions, alongside the Israeli Air Force.

以色列国防军周五表示,部队将演练“多种情景,包括通过空中和陆地对以色列领土发动突袭和渗透”,并融入了2023年10月7日哈马斯领导的对以色列袭击的经验教训。

The exercise, scheduled just ahead of Israel's elections Oct. 27, aims to "maintain the forces’ alertness and readiness, strengthen the ability to defend communities, and make full use of aerial capabilities for defense in the area," according to the IDF.

以色列国家安全分析师、博士埃胡德·埃拉姆(Dr. Ehud Eilam)对福克斯新闻数字版(Fox News Digital)表示:“这次演习主要针对有或没有伊朗支持的非国家行为体。”

On Friday, the IDF said troops would practice "a variety of scenarios, including a surprise attack and infiltration into Israeli territory by air and land," incorporating lessons learned from the Oct. 7, 2023, Hamas-led attacks on Israel.

分析人士表示,此次军事演习并非直接针对伊朗,而是针对伊朗在以色列边境的代理人和盟友。(Jalaa MAREY/法新社/盖蒂图片社)The military exercise is not against Iran directly but against Iran's proxies and allies at the border of Israel, analysts said. ( Jalaa MAREY / AFP via Getty Images)

“目标是那些在叙利亚、黎巴嫩和约旦、可能试图渗透进入以色列或发动地面突袭的人员。其中一些得到伊朗支持;另一些则没有。这可能是伊朗策划的,也可能是当地倡议。”这位前以色列国防部研究员补充道:“这是一次大规模演习,是近年来最大规模的一次,旨在保卫边境。”

"This exercise is mostly about non-state actors with or without Iranian support," Israeli national security analyst Dr. Ehud Eilam told Fox News Digital. "It's aimed at those in Syria, Lebanon, and Jordan who might try to infiltrate into Israel or send ground raids. Some are supported by Iran; others are not.

以色列一位安全专家援引1973年赎罪日战争(Yom Kippur War)为例,当时埃及和利用演习掩盖突袭准备,警告称地区紧张局势升级实际上可能引发他所谓的“危险误判”。

It could be planned by Iran or be a local initiative." "This is a massive exercise, the biggest one in recent years, aimed at protecting the borders," the former Israeli Ministry of Defense researcher added.

“一切都是为了确保10月27日的选举日顺利进行。这也是向伊朗和其他方面传递的信息:不要试图在选举日挑衅我们,以免发生任何干扰。”以色列的演习是在德黑兰几天前展示武力之后进行的,据报道,伊斯兰革命卫队(IRGC)在该演习中发射了约30枚两类不同武器级别的弹道导弹。

"It's all about making sure that the election day on October 27 will run smoothly. It's also a message to Iran and others: don't try to provoke us during election day, so nothing will be disrupted." The Israeli drills followed a show of force by Tehran days earlier, during which the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) fired roughly 30 ballistic missiles across two distinct weapon classes, according to reports.

那次实弹演示凸显了伊朗的打击能力,并引发了关于霍尔木兹海峡商业航运的重新警报,促使以色列军方提高警戒级别,同时保持最高戒备状态,以对伊朗实施有针对性的打击。

That live-fire display highlighted Iranian strike capabilities and sparked renewed alerts about commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz and prompted the Israeli military to heighten its alert level while maintaining maximum readiness for a targeted strike against Iran.

在周三视察以色列国防军中央司令部期间,参谋长埃亚尔·扎米尔中将警告称,局势升级的风险正在增加。

During a visit to the IDF's Central Command on Wednesday, Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Eyal Zamir warned that the risk of escalation was growing.

扎米尔说:“鉴于所有战线上的大量预警以及当前时期的敏感性,局势升级的可能性已经增加。”

"Given the numerous warnings across all fronts and the sensitivity of the current period, the potential for escalation has increased," Zamir said.

“为了确保在实地有更好的作战管控,我们加强了所有区域的部队部署,包括调动第98师进入该地区,以加强安全与稳定。”“这是相互威慑的一部分:几天前,伊朗进行了他们自己的大规模演习,就以色列而言,那实际上更具威慑力,因为他们发射了导弹并为与以色列的战争做准备,”埃拉姆说。

"To ensure better operational control on the ground, we have reinforced our troop deployments across all sectors, including moving the 98th Division into the area to strengthen security and stability." "Part of mutual deterrence: a few days ago, Iran had their own pretty big exercise, and that was actually more intimidating as far as Israel is concerned because they launched missiles and prepared for a war with Israel," Eilam said.

“周日和周一的这次演习是针对伊朗在以色列边境的代理人和盟友的。”周日的以色列演习还紧随10月19日的一次任务,当时以色列战斗机和空中加油机飞越叙利亚和伊拉克领空,飞行800英里抵达伊朗边境。

"This exercise on Sunday and Monday is against Iran's proxies and allies at the border of Israel." Sunday’s Israeli drill also followed an Oct. 19 mission in which Israeli fighter jets and aerial refueling tankers flew 800 miles across Syrian and Iraqi airspace to Iran’s border.

华盛顿事先获悉通知,并将该机动视为一种非动能武力展示,此前更广泛的打击方案在本月早些时候被推迟。

Washington was notified in advance and viewed the maneuver as a non-kinetic show of force following the postponement of a broader strike package earlier in the month.

尽管发出了威慑信号,埃伊拉姆警告称,大规模军事演习存在“误判风险”,尤其是当部队调动可能被误认为是进攻准备时。

Despite the deterrence signals, Eilam warned that large-scale military exercises carry the "risk of miscalculation" and particularly when troop movements could be mistaken for preparations for an attack.

“埃伊拉姆说:“冷战期间,每当苏联或北约举行大型演习,如此多部队在野外活动意味着如果他们有进攻意图,可能会发动攻击。”

"During the Cold War, every time the Soviet Union or NATO carried out a major drill, having so many troops in the field meant they might attack if that was the intention," Eilam said.

他指出了1973年的赎罪日战争,当时埃及和叙利亚利用军事演习来帮助掩盖在以色列边境的部队集结。

He pointed to the 1973 Yom Kippur War, when Egypt and Syria used military exercises to help conceal troop buildups along Israel's borders.

以色列情报机构在很大程度上将这些调动视为例行演习而予以忽视,使得这两个国家在发动协同的双线进攻时实现了战略突袭。

Israeli intelligence largely dismissed the movements as routine drills, allowing the two countries to achieve strategic surprise when they launched a coordinated, two-front attack on Yom Kippur.

2025年12月8日,叙利亚大马士革,军事人员在阅兵式上表演。(Khalil Ashawi/路透社)Military personnel perform during a military parade in Damascus, Syria, Dec. 8, 2025. (Khalil Ashawi/Reuters)

“这位分析师说:“以色列的典型案例是1973年,当时埃及和叙利亚在战争前夕进行了一次大型演习,该演习演变成了实际攻击。”

"The classic example in Israel is 1973, when Egypt and Syria conducted a major exercise just before the war that turned into the actual attack," the analyst said.

埃伊拉姆补充道:“以色列和伊朗现在正在密切监视对方,双方都怀疑对方可能会率先发动袭击。”他接着说,存在他们所谓的“误判机会——即双方互相怀疑,并因误判而率先发动袭击。”

"Israel and Iran are now watching each other very closely and both sides suspect the other might strike first," Eilam added before stating that there is the chance of what they call "miscalculation — that each side suspects the other and strikes first by mistake."

“一切都关乎向对方传递信息。”“埃伊拉姆总结道:“最终是否会发生以色列袭击伊朗的情况仍不确定,因为这取决于美国的授权。”

"It's all about sending messages to each other." "It remains uncertain whether there will eventually be an Israeli attack on Iran because it depends on U.S. authorization," Eilam concluded.

“目前,双方都在发出信号:‘我们已做好准备,别招惹我们,但我们现在不想开战。’”

"Right now, both sides are signaling: 'We are ready, don't mess with us, but we don't want to start a war right now.'"

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