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最高法院如何塑造中期选举How the Supreme Court Is Shaping the Midterm Elections

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华盛顿——从被操纵的选区划分到最新的政治支出激增,最高法院的印记遍布2026年中期选举。该院保守派多数法官的一连串裁决重写了管辖美国选举的规则,而今秋的国会争夺战是首个充分感受到这些影响的选举。

WASHINGTON—From gerrymandered voting maps to the latest surge in political spending, the Supreme Court’s fingerprints are all over the 2026 midterms.A string of decisions from the court’s conservative majority has rewritten the rules that govern American elections, and this fall’s fight for Congress is the first to feel the full effects.A June ruling that struck down a campaign-finance law has prompted a torrent of ads financed by political parties, with most of that spending coming from the GOP.

六月的一项裁决推翻了一项竞选资金法,引发了由政党资助的广告洪流,其中大部分支出来自共和党。四月关于《投票权法案》的一项里程碑式裁决意味着,南方三州的三个众议院选区预计将于下月从民主党翻红为共和党。而本周期这波经过涡轮增压的重新划分选区,是2019年一项裁决的集大成者,该裁决宣称联邦法院无权监督党派选区操纵。

A landmark ruling in April on the Voting Rights Act means that three House districts in Southern states are expected to flip from Democratic to Republican next month. And this cycle’s wave of turbocharged redistricting is the culmination of a 2019 ruling that said federal courts have no role in supervising partisan gerrymandering.

或许法院影响最为显眼的领域在于摇摆州的电视荧屏。直到今年,联邦法律限制政党能与候选人直接协调支出的金额。法院宣布这些上限依据第一修正案属于违宪。

Perhaps the court’s most visible impact is on TV airwaves in battleground states. Until this year, federal law capped how much money the parties could spend in direct coordination with candidates. The court declared those caps unconstitutional under the First Amendment.

作为回应,根据追踪政治广告的公司AdImpact的数据,两党已投入超过1亿美元用于与候选人协调的电视广告。

In response, the two parties have poured more than $100 million into TV s that they coordinate with candidates, according to the firm AdImpact, which tracks political advertising.

在可能决定参议院控制权的关键竞选中,支出远超上限若仍生效时所允许的水平。以俄亥俄州为例,若上限仍在,各党在2026周期的上限本为120万美元。但据竞选资金披露,截至9月底,共和党参议院筹款委员会已与现任议员乔恩·休斯德协调支出2300万美元,而其民主党对应机构与挑战者谢罗德·布朗协调支出570万美元。在密歇根州,上限本为110万美元。

In key races that could determine control of the Senate, the spending has far surpassed what would have been allowed if the caps were still in effect. In Ohio, for instance, the cap for each party would have been $1.2 million for the 2026 cycle. But through the end of September, the Republican Party’s Senate fundraising committee spent $23 million in coordination with incumbent Jon Husted, while its Democratic counterpart spent $5.7 million in coordination with challenger Sherrod Brown, according to campaign-finance disclosures. In Michigan, the cap would have been $1.1 million.

在没有支出上限的情况下,共和党参议院竞选委员会已与候选人迈克·罗杰斯(Mike Rogers)协调花费了1340万美元,而民主党参议院竞选委员会则与候选人阿卜杜勒·埃尔-赛义德(Abdul El-Sayed)协调花费了460万美元。在爱荷华州和缅因州等其他参议院关键战场州,也出现了类似的支出模式。

Without the cap, the Republican Senate committee has spent $13.4 million in coordination with candidate Mike Rogers, while the Democratic Senate committee has spent $4.6 million in coordination with candidate Abdul El-Sayed. Similar spending patterns have emerged in other Senate battlegrounds, such as Iowa and Maine.

大法官埃琳娜·卡根(Elena Kagan)周二在天主教大学法学院的一次公开露面中,提请关注协调支出案件的后果。她在该案中持异议。“美国民众环顾这个政治体系,认为这么多钱追逐这么多政治候选人简直是一场噩梦。他们是对的,”卡根说。

Justice Elena Kagan, who dissented in the case on coordinated spending, drew attention to its consequences in an appearance at Catholic University’s law school on Tuesday.“The people of America look around at this political system and think that all this money chasing all these political candidates is a nightmare. And they’re right,” Kagan said.

这位奥巴马任命的大法官还批评了意识形态两极分化的裁决,这些裁决使得各州更容易为政治利益激进地重划国会选区。首席大法官约翰·罗伯茨(John Roberts)在2019年“鲁乔诉共同事业案”(Rucho v. Common Cause)的多数意见中写道,极端的党派选区划分“导致的结果合理地看似乎是不公正的”——但联邦法官无力担任此类争端的裁判。

Kagan, an Obama appointee, also criticized ideologically polarized rulings that have made it easier for states to aggressively redraw congressional districts for political gain. Chief Justice John Roberts’s 2019 majority opinion in Rucho v. Common Cause said that extreme partisan gerrymandering “leads to results that reasonably seem unjust”—but that federal judges aren’t equipped to referee such disputes.

随后,在今年早些时候的“路易斯安那州诉卡莱案”(Louisiana v. Callais)中,最高法院缩窄了《投票权法案》的适用范围,并似乎接受党派选区划分作为州立法机构的合法目标。大法官塞缪尔·阿利托(Samuel Alito)在卡莱案的多数意见中写道,党派优势是“各州可根据意愿依赖的一个符合宪法许可的标准”。

Then, earlier this year, in Louisiana v. Callais, the court narrowed the Voting Rights Act and seemed to accept partisan gerrymandering as a valid goal of state legislatures. Partisan advantage, Justice Samuel Alito wrote in the majority opinion in Callais, is “a constitutionally permissible criterion that states may rely on as desired.”

德雷塞尔大学法学教授塔巴萨·阿布·埃尔-哈吉(Tabatha Abu El-Haj)表示,法院关于党派选区划分的不断演变的措辞似乎使该做法合法化。“党派选区划分一直存在,”她说。“但现在,它已从一种政治事实变成了一项合法的宪法利益。”

Tabatha Abu El-Haj, a law professor at Drexel University, said the court’s evolving language about partisan gerrymandering has seemed to validate the practice.“There was always partisan gerrymandering,” she said. “But now, it’s gone from a fact of politics to a legitimate constitutional interest.”

卡莱案的裁决允许三个州——阿拉巴马州、路易斯安那州和田纳西州——迅速拆除黑人选民占多数或近乎多数的众议院选区。共和党现在被看好将赢得这三个席位。

The decision in Callais allowed three states—Alabama, Louisiana and Tennessee—to quickly dismantle House districts where Black voters had held a majority or near-majority. Republicans are now favored to flip all three of those seats.

其他南方州可能会效仿,并在2028年前取消更多黑人占多数的选区。与此同时,全国各州正在进行不同寻常的十年中期重划选区,旨在最大化党派优势。在特朗普总统的推动下,共和党控制的州主导了这一行动,但加利福尼亚州民主党人的反制行动预计将抵消共和党潜在收益的很大一部分。最高法院最近与选举相关的裁决并非都有利于共和党。

And other Southern states may follow suit and eliminate more majority-Black districts by 2028. Meanwhile, states around the country have engaged in unusual mid-decade redistricting designed to maximize partisan advantage. Republican-controlled states, prodded by President Trump, have led that effort, but a counter-effort by Democrats in California is expected to offset much of the potential Republican gain. Not all of the Supreme Court’s recent election-related rulings have helped Republicans.

6月,法院驳回了共和党主导的一项挑战,该挑战针对的是允许在选举日当天或之前盖邮戳、并在稍后送达的选票予以计数的州法律。上个月,法院阻止了特朗普政府一项对邮寄选票施加新要求的计划,并叫停了一项在密苏里州推行有利于共和党的投票版图的长期努力。其他高风险的中期选举诉讼正在下级法院酝酿。特朗普政府试图阻止加利福尼亚州计算来自2万名选民的邮寄选票,政府称这些人可能不是美国公民;政府周五还提起诉讼,试图阻止阿拉斯加州参议院选举结果的认证,如果共和党候选人落败的话。

In June, the court rejected a Republican-led challenge to state laws that count ballots if they are mailed by Election Day and arrive shortly afterward. Last month, the court blocked a Trump administration plan to impose new requirements for mail ballots, and it stopped a long shot effort to install a pro-Republican voting map in Missouri. Other high-stakes midterm litigation is brewing in lower courts. The Trump administration is attempting to block California from counting mail ballots from 20,000 people that the administration says may not be American citizens, and the administration on Friday sued to prevent the certification of Alaska’s Senate results if the Republican candidate loses.

任何在11月3日后挑战选举结果的诉讼,可能也必须由最高法院来解决。请致信James Romoser,邮箱james.romoser@wsj.com,以及Neil Mehta,邮箱neil.mehta@wsj.com。

Any postelection litigation challenging results after Nov. 3 might have to be resolved by the high court, too. Write to James Romoser at james.romoser@wsj.com and Neil Mehta at neil.mehta@wsj.com

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