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CNN政治:若特朗普选择动手,美国已制定对伊朗大规模打击计划US has plans for major Iran strikes if Trump chooses | CNN Politics

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据两名美国官员透露,驻中东美军已做好准备,一旦接到唐纳德·特朗普总统的命令,“96小时内”即可对伊朗发动新的、可能是大规模的军事行动。

US forces in the Middle East are prepared to launch new, potentially major, military operations against Iran “within 96 hours of receiving” an order from President Donald Trump, according to two US officials.

消息人士称,目前该地区已部署足够兵力实施潜在打击。新一轮美军军事行动的范围可能超越单纯“修剪草坪”或通过打击雷达、发射器及其他可快速重建的伊朗资产来维持现状——自特朗普今年早些时候叫停全面战斗行动以来,一直是这种情况。

Sufficient forces are now deployed in the region to carry out the potential attacks, the sources said. The scope of new US military operations would likely go beyond efforts to simply “mow the lawn” or maintain the status quo by striking radars, launchers and other Iranian assets that can be quickly reconstituted — as has been the case since Trump halted full combat operations earlier this year, the sources added.

“这将是一场大规模行动,”其中一名官员告诉CNN。其他知晓内部军事规划讨论的现任和前任美国官员也表达了类似看法——其中一些人表示,问题不在于特朗普是否会下达执行令,而在于何时下达。他们预计可能在年底前任何时候下令,但最可能是在美国中期选举之后。

“It will be a big effort,” one of the officials told CNN. That view has been echoed by other current and former US officials familiar with internal military planning discussions — some of whom say it is a question of when, not if, Trump will issue a go-order. They believe it could come any time before the end of the year, though most likely after the US midterm elections.

伊朗部队如今更熟悉美军战术,因此美军要有效摧毁所有预定潜在目标将更加困难。不过,美国中央司令部和五角大楼的领导层一直在制定广泛的目标清单,其中包括伊朗能源基础设施、军事设施和核设施。

Iranian forces are now more familiar with US tactics, and it would therefore be harder for the American military to effectively destroy all potential intended targets. However, leaders in US Central Command and the Pentagon have been developing a wide-ranging target list, which includes Iranian energy infrastructure, military sites and nuclear facilities.

官员称,特朗普尚未决定中期选举后将采取何种行动,但似乎倾向于下令采取重大行动。但官员也警告说,特朗普过去曾表现出倾向于采取某些行动,却在最后时刻反悔。白宫拒绝置评。

Officials say that Trump has not made up his mind on what he will do after the midterms but that he appears to be leaning toward ordering major action. But officials also caution that Trump has appeared in the past to lean toward certain actions only to back off at the last moment. The White House declined to comment.

一位资深五角大楼官员在一份声明中告诉CNN:“国防部是一个规划组织,其职责是制定并执行总统下令的军事选项。”根据两位知情人士透露,近期美国情报评估显示,伊朗和胡塞武装非常认真地对待美国以及可能以色列重新发动袭击的可能性。

A senior Pentagon official told CNN in a statement, “The Department is a planning organization, and its job is to develop and execute military options ordered by the President.”Recent US intelligence assessments indicate Iran and Houthi rebels are taking the possibility of renewed attacks by the US and potentially Israel very seriously, according to two additional sources familiar with the matter.

知情人士称,根据这些最新的美国情报评估,如果美国和以色列对伊朗发动新的军事行动,德黑兰和胡塞武装很可能会立即通过袭击该地区——甚至可能是该地区以外——的美国人员和设施进行报复。

If the US and Israel launch new military operations against Iran, Tehran and the Houthis would likely retaliate immediately by targeting American personnel and facilities around the region — and potentially beyond, the sources familiar with those recent US intelligence assessments said.

CNN此前报道,国家情报总监杰伊·克莱顿于10月23日致国务卿马可·鲁比奥的一份非密级备忘录称,美国情报发现“伊朗大幅增加了针对美国人员的袭击努力”,且策划行动“在中东地区和某些其他国家均已进入高级阶段”。

An unclassified October 23 memo from Director of National Intelligence Jay Clayton to Secretary of State Marco Rubio says US intelligence has found that “Iran has substantially increased efforts to target US personnel” and plotting efforts “have reached advanced stages in both the Middle East and certain other countries,” CNN previously reported.

一位知晓最新美国情报评估的消息人士指出,美国情报官员认为,伊朗和胡塞武装目前不太可能对美国人员或以色列发动先发制人的升级性袭击,但如果伊朗首先遭到美军或以色列武力打击,它们绝不会犹豫进行反击。

US intelligence officials believe Iran and the Houthis are unlikely to carry out preemptive escalatory attacks against American personnel or Israel at this point but would not hesitate to respond if Iran is targeted first by US or Israeli forces, one of the sources familiar with the latest American intelligence assessments noted.

9月18日,伊朗国旗在德黑兰南部飘扬。Morteza Nikoubazl/NurPhoto/AP/FileThe Iranian national flag is seen in southern Tehran on September 18. Morteza Nikoubazl/NurPhoto/AP/File

但消息人士称,伊朗和胡塞武装构成的地区威胁,是美国预计在未来几天继续悄悄从中东各地大使馆撤离人员的原因之一。

But the regional threat posed by Iran and the Houthis is one reason why the US is expected to continue quietly pulling personnel from its embassies across the Middle East in the coming days, the source said.

虽然驻沙特阿拉伯利雅得的美国大使馆是该地区唯一处于“下令撤离”状态的美国外交机构,但一位消息人士告诉CNN,其他使馆预计将收到类似指令,未收到指令的也将在人员上限管控下缩减规模。

While the US Embassy in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, is the only American diplomatic facility in the region under ordered departure, one of the sources told CNN that others are expected to receive similar directives and those that do not will be scaled down under a personnel cap.

此外,一名美国官员透露,原定作为下一轮部队轮换的一部分部署到中东的非必要美军人员已被告知不再前往,这凸显了地区局势升级的可能性迫在眉睫。

Additionally, nonessential US military personnel who were expected to deploy to the Middle East as part of the next troop rotation have been told they are no longer being sent, according to a US official, underscoring the possibility of looming regional escalation.

美国中央司令部司令布拉德·库珀海军上将周日访问了霍尔木兹海峡,当时美军正在维持对伊朗港口的封锁,并协助航运通过这一关键水道。

Adm. Brad Cooper, the CENTCOM commander, visited the Strait of Hormuz on Sunday as the US military maintains its blockade on Iranian ports and assists shipping traffic through the critical waterway.

中央司令部表示,库珀“观察了当前的作战环境”,他在直升机上飞越海峡时进行了观察,并会见了清理海峡内伊朗水雷的军人。

Cooper “observed the current operational environment” while flying over the strait in a helicopter, CENTCOM said, adding that he met with service members who cleared the waterway of Iranian mines.

库珀在一份新闻稿中说:“我们继续与海湾合作伙伴和航运业并肩站在一起。此次访问凸显了我们对通过霍尔木兹海峡航行自由的坚定承诺。”尽管通过海峡的油轮数量增加,但油价依然居高不下,部分原因是存在伊朗可能发动袭击的威胁。一名美国官员承认,海峡周边的现状“长期来看无法维持”,若无最后时刻的外交突破,这也是特朗普可能诉诸军事行动的一个原因——尽管外界对白宫是否有结束冲突的更广泛战略存疑。

“We continue to stand shoulder to shoulder with our Gulf partners and the shipping industry,” Cooper said in a news release. “This visit underscores our strong commitment to continued freedom of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz.”Despite the increase in tankers transiting the strait, oil prices remain high, partly due to the threat of possible Iranian attacks. One US official acknowledged the status quo around the strait is “untenable” for the long term, and barring a last-minute diplomatic breakthrough, is one reason Trump may turn to military action — despite questions about whether the White House has a broader strategy for ending the conflict.

据两名美国官员和一名以色列安全消息人士透露,以色列总理本雅明·内塔尼亚胡一直在推动对伊朗发动新袭击,但美国官员要求他推迟,直到特朗普政府准备好实施联合行动。

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has been pushing to carry out new attacks against Iran, but US officials have requested he delay until the Trump administration is ready to conduct joint operations, according to two US officials and an Israeli security source.

“内塔尼亚胡非常想要并试图说服特朗普在大选前对伊朗发动联合袭击,但特朗普没有给绿灯,”这名以色列安全消息人士告诉CNN。

“Netanyahu really wanted and tried to convince Trump for a joint attack in Iran before the elections, and Trump did not give a green light,” the Israeli security source told CNN.

以色列国防军参谋长埃亚尔·扎米尔告诉美国参谋长联席会议主席丹·凯恩将军,这将损害以色列的选举并导致选举推迟,这位以色列安全消息人士补充说,这是特朗普拒绝的一个原因。

One reason Trump declined is because Israel Defense Forces chief of staff Eyal Zamir told US Gen. Dan Caine, chairman of the Joint Chiefs, that it would harm the elections in Israel and lead to their postponement, the Israeli security source added.

以色列总理本雅明·内塔尼亚胡于10月22日在以色列立法选举前夕向支持者发表讲话。Jack Guez/AFP/Getty ImagesIsraeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu speaks to his supporters on October 22 ahead of Israel's legislative election. Jack Guez/AFP/Getty Images

一位知情的第三方消息人士告诉CNN,在过去一周左右,以色列一直在为可能对伊朗发动额外袭击做准备,并一直在游说美国官员支持并配合这些新的打击行动。但美国高级官员——包括特朗普——告诉以色列暂缓行动,转而表示两国将很快发起联合行动。

Israel was preparing for the possibility of launching additional attacks against Iran in the last week or so and had been lobbying US officials to support and complement those new strikes, a third source briefed on the matter told CNN. But senior US officials — including Trump — told Israel to hold off, instead signaling the two countries would launch joint operations soon.

所有消息人士称,以色列似乎已推迟了近期对伊朗发动额外打击的计划,但正在为与美国可能的联合行动做准备——很可能在美国中期选举之后。

Israel appears to have delayed plans in the immediate term for additional strikes but is building up for potential joint operations with the US — likely after the American midterm elections, all of the sources said.

这位知情消息人士补充说,以色列似乎同意推迟对伊朗的新打击,部分原因是它需要美国在导弹防御方面的支持。伊朗和胡塞武装很可能会对袭击进行报复,而以色列的防御弹药在战争期间已捉襟见肘。

Israel seemed to agree to delaying new strikes on Iran in part because it needs US support for missile defense, the source briefed on the matter added. Iran and the Houthis would likely retaliate against an attack and Israel’s defensive munitions have been strained during the war.

一位熟悉相关报告的消息人士补充说,最近的美国情报评估表明,内塔尼亚胡及其盟友除了展示某种“进展”并继续削弱伊朗政权外,仍缺乏明确的战略目标。

Recent US intelligence assessments indicate that Netanyahu and his allies still lack a clear strategic objective beyond demonstrating some sort of “progress” and continuing to degrade the Iranian regime, one of the sources familiar with the reports added.

内塔尼亚胡本周在以色列国防军毕业典礼上的讲话中表示,他对以色列国防军、摩萨德和其他安全部门的指令是推翻伊朗政权。

Netanyahu said this week in a speech at an IDF graduation ceremony that his directive to the IDF, the Mossad and other security branches is to topple the regime in Iran.

“计划已准备就绪,等待特朗普批准,可能在中期选举之后,”同一消息人士告诉CNN。

“The plans are ready, waiting for Trump’s approval, could be after the midterms,” the same source told CNN.

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