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国会山报

德黑兰威胁将强硬报复之际,五角大楼起草打击伊朗方案Pentagon drafts Iran attack plans as Tehran threatens aggressive retaliation

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美国军方已制定选项,可能在美中期选举后攻击伊朗,从而可能重燃持续逾八个月的冲突。负责监管中东地区美军的美国中央司令部(Centcom)已准备好计划,若白宫授权,将对伊朗实施后续打击,一位知情人士在匿名条件下向《国会山报》透露。另一位知情人士称,中央司令部已备好多个打击选项,并呈报给国防部长皮特·赫格塞斯。这位同样要求匿名的知情人士表示,特朗普总统将保留所有选项,直到必须做出最终决定。

The U.S. military has drawn up options to potentially attack Iran after the U.S. midterm elections, possibly renewing the conflict that has lasted over eight months. The U.S. Central Command (Centcom), which oversees U.S. forces in the Middle East, has plans ready to conduct follow-up strikes against Iran if there’s authorization from the White House, a source aware of the plans, who spoke on condition of anonymity, told The Hill. Centcom has a number of strike options in place, which are presented to Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, another source aware of the planning said.

“在我看来,美国在中期选举结束后重新对伊朗实施军事打击的可能性相当大,”欧亚集团伊朗问题专家格雷戈里·布鲁周五在接受《国会山报》采访时表示。前国防情报局(DIA)中东/非洲区域中心执行官哈里森·曼恩称,若特朗普选择打击伊朗,可行使两种升级形式:恢复攻击伊朗境内的军事和政治目标,或在以色列军方参与的情况下打击民用和能源基础设施。

President Trump will leave all of his options open until he has to make the final decision, this source, who also spoke on condition of anonymity, said. “To me, it looks pretty likely that the U.S. goes back to military strikes on Iran once the midterm elections are passed,” Gregory Brew, an Iran expert at Eurasia Group, said in a Friday interview with The Hill.

“我强调‘境内’,因为自4月以来,美国基本未攻击除伊朗沿海目标外的任何目标。显然除了可能一两次袭击外,美军未飞越伊朗领空,”曼恩周五在接受《国会山报》采访时表示。

Harrison Mann, a former executive officer of the Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) Middle East/Africa Regional Center, said there are two forms of escalation Trump’s could exercise if he chooses to hit Iran: return to attacking Iranian military and political targets inland or targeting civilian and energy infrastructure if the Israeli military is involved.

“这可能既是为了降低升级风险,也是因为他们不愿冒更多飞机被击落的风险。”曼恩继续说道:“另一条路径是直接打击民用基础设施、能源基础设施,或者像我们在冲突伊始看到以色列人所做的那样,打击大学、警察局和其他民用设施;这两条路径并不互斥,如果以色列部队参与其中,后者变得更有可能。”

“I emphasize inland because since April, the U.S. has basically not attacked anything except for targets on Iran's coasts. It has apparently not flown aircraft except for maybe one or two strikes over Iranian territory,” Mann said in a Friday interview with The Hill.

当向国防部请求置评时,一名五角大楼官员表示,该部门的“职责是为总统制定并呈报军事选项”。“我们不对假设性情况或未来行动进行推测,”该官员称。美国中央司令部未回应《国会山报》的置评请求。

“That was probably both to reduce the risk of escalation and because they were not willing to risk having more planes shot down.”

在美国政府寻求从伊斯兰共和国榨取重大让步、而外交谈判陷入停滞之际,授权动能打击的意愿随之而来。特朗普本人曾警告,美国可能在十一月中期选举后袭击德黑兰,共和党正在为保住参众两院多数席位而战。特朗普政府认为,在制裁和美国海上封锁的双重打击下,伊朗经济正日益衰弱,通胀持续上升。“基本上就是利用武力增加对伊朗现有的压力,迫使其屈服、达成协议,并让美国得以退出战争,”布鲁说,并补充称,美国考虑军事打击的部分原因是“对外交前景缺乏进展感到沮丧”。

“The other path; these are not mutually exclusive, and which becomes more likely if Israeli forces are involved would be going directly targeting civilian infrastructure, energy infrastructure, or as we saw the Israelis do at the start of the conflict, universities, police stations, other civilian stuff,” Mann continued. When asking the Defense Department for a comment, a Pentagon official said the department’s “job is to develop and present military options to the President.”

“伊朗人不让步;他们没有表现出任何灵活性,”他说。“他们坚持的一个谈判立场现在已经维持了几周。”

“We don’t speculate on hypothetical situations or future operations,” the official said. Centcom did not respond to The Hill’s request for comment.

周一,赫格塞斯在以色列总理本雅明·内塔尼亚胡陪同下,看望了驻中东地区的美军。“我们一直在与以色列军方密切合作。这并非新鲜事。我们合作已久。

The appetite for authorizing kinetic actions comes as the U.S. government looks to pull major concessions from the Islamic Republic amid stalled diplomatic negotiations.

“他们拥有强大的能力,我们感谢他们为确保伊朗永远无法获得核武器所做的贡献,”赫格塞思周二在威斯康星州对记者表示,并称赞以色列是“良好的伙伴”。一些地区分析人士质疑,另一轮美以打击行动——这导致五角大楼的导弹拦截弹库存和一些精密进攻系统耗尽、油价飙升、中东局势动荡——是否会迫使伊朗领导层做出让步。

“目前没有任何程度的美以打击能迫使伊朗改变路线,”前陆军少校曼恩说。“伊朗领导人不仅认为自己正在为个人生存和政权生存而战,他们越来越认识到自己拥有筹码,占据上风,并希望利用这一优势试图从特朗普那里争取让步。‘我认为我们已经非常清楚地看到了美以打击的极限,’他继续说道。‘打击无法摧毁伊朗的军事能力,无法摧毁其政治领导层,尽管关键成员遭到暗杀。在战争活跃阶段,美以军队摧毁并损坏了伊朗的发射装置和导弹弹药库。上个月,五角大楼称美军摧毁了伊朗90%以上的弹道导弹、海军工业基地和无人机。’特朗普此前曾在五角大楼准备好打击方案后,收回批准对伊朗实施实战打击的决定。美军目前在中东拥有超过5万名现役军人和约20艘军舰,其中一些正协助在阿拉伯海实施海上封锁。中东地区有两个航母打击群,第三个——尼米兹级航母‘西奥多·罗斯福’号——正前往美国中央司令部辖区,可能接替‘乔治·华盛顿’号。”

Trump himself has warned the U.S. could attack Tehran following the November midterms, where Republicans are fighting to retain both chambers of Congress. The Trump administration sees Iran’s economy getting weaker by the day, with the combination of sanctions and the U.S. naval blockade degrading the country’s economy, where inflation is rising.

美国国防部调派了4000名海军陆战队员和水手,乘坐由“马金岛”号(USS Makin Island)率领的三艘军舰前往中东,作为两栖待命群的一部分。“马金岛”号是一艘“黄蜂”级两栖攻击舰。这些额外的军舰和人员可为总统提供更多两栖登陆及其他行动的选项。特朗普还暗示,美军可能会打击“镐山”,该山位于扎格罗斯山脉受损的纳坦兹铀浓缩设施附近。但一些专家认为,该设施深度极大,意味着美军最强大的钻地炸弹不太可能穿透它,因为该地点埋藏在最深达2000英尺(约610米)的花岗岩之下。

“Basically, using force to add to the existing pressures that are on Iran, force them to capitulate, reach a deal, and allow the U.S. to exit the war,” Brew said, adding that part of why the U.S. is considering military strikes is “frustration” with the lack of progress on the diplomatic front. “The Iranians are not bending; they're not showing any flexibility,” he said. “They have a negotiating position that they've been sticking to now for several weeks.”On Monday, Hegseth visited U.S. troops in the Middle East along with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in Israel.

周三,随着伊朗支持的胡塞武装持续袭击沙特王国,国务院下令非紧急美国政府雇员及其家属撤离沙特阿拉伯。国家情报总监杰伊·克莱顿(Jay Clayton)告知国务卿马可·鲁比奥(Marco Rubio),美国情报发现,伊朗针对在中东的美国官员实施袭击和暗杀的阴谋已“大幅增加”,且行动已达到“先进阶段”。克莱顿在致鲁比奥的备忘录中表示:“具体而言,通过各种渠道,我们收到情报,伊朗大幅增加了针对美国人员的行动。”

鲁比奥同时担任特朗普的国家安全顾问。“伊朗人针对美国公民的致命谋划行动,在中东及某些其他国家均已达到先进阶段。”

“We've worked with the Israeli military quite a bit. That's nothing new. We have for a long time. They have great capabilities, and we appreciate their contributions to assuring Iran never gets a nuclear weapon,” Hegseth told reporters on Tuesday in Wisconsin, praising Israel as “good partners.”

布鲁表示,伊朗领导人已在私下和公开场合发出信号,若美国或以色列发动袭击,其报复行动将比今年早些时候“更大规模”、“更激进”且“不同寻常”。德黑兰威胁要打击美国基地、军舰、石油管道、炼油厂及海湾地区的美国盟友,因为伊朗仍保有无人机和导弹能力。

Some regional analysts question if another U.S.-Israel strike campaign — which contributed to the depletion of the Pentagon arsenal of missile interceptors and some exquisite offensive systems, spiked gas prices and rocked the Middle East — would force the Iranian leadership to make concessions.

该地区重燃战火的可能性——此前《纽约时报》已有报道——也出现在油价升至去年5月以来最高点之际。该地区重燃战火的可能性也出现在油价升至去年5月以来最高点之际。周五,布伦特原油突破每桶117美元,而美国基准西德克萨斯中质原油(WTI)在102美元左右交易。

“There's no level of U.S. or Israeli strikes that is going to compel Iran to change course at this point. Iranian leaders not only saw themselves in a fight for personal survival and survival of their regime,” Mann, a former Army major, said.

布鲁指出:“特别是,地区官员和领导层成员一直在明确表示,波斯湾的海底电缆、人工智能数据中心和科技相关基础设施,所有这些都将被视为在伊朗遭受袭击时的打击目标。”

美国驻土耳其大使、特朗普负责叙利亚和伊拉克事务的特使汤姆·巴拉克表示,周末可能会对伊朗采取军事行动。“本周末可能会有袭击吗?绝对可能。总统已经很清楚了,我是在告诉你美国的政策,总统非常清楚:他愿意、随时准备并敞开大门达成协议。我们在谈判桌前坐了几个月、几个月、几个月了,”巴拉克在接受黎巴嫩裔澳大利亚企业家兼政治评论员马里奥·纳夫尔采访时表示,该采访于周五发布。

“They've increasingly come to understand that they have leverage, they have the upper hand, and they want to drive that advantage to try and get concessions from Trump. “I think we have already seen quite clearly what the limits are of U.S. and Israeli strikes,” he continued. “It could not destroy Iran's military capacity, could not destroy its political leadership, even though it assassinated key members. During the active stage of the war, the U.S. and Israeli militaries destroyed and damaged Iranian launchers and missile magazines. Last month, the Pentagon said the U.S. military destroyed upwards of 90 percent of Iranian ballistic missiles, naval industrial base and drones. Trump has previously pulled back from greenlighting kinetic strikes against Iran after the Pentagon would prepare a strike package. The U.S. military currently has over 50,000 service members in the Middle East and about 20 warships, some of which are helping enforce the naval blockade in the Arabian Sea. There are two aircraft carrier strike groups in the Middle East and a third one, the USS Theodore Roosevelt, a Nimitz-class aircraft carrier, is going to the Centcom region to possibly relieve the USS George Washington. The Pentagon dispatched 4,000 Marines and sailors aboard three warships, led by USS Makin Island, a Wasp-class amphibious assault ship, to the Middle East as part of the amphibious readiness group. The additional battleships and personnel could provide the president with greater options for amphibious landings and other operations. Trump has also telegraphed that the U.S. military could strike Pickaxe Mountain, located near the damaged Natanz uranium enrichment facility in the Zagros Mountains. But some experts have argued the facility’s depth could mean that the U.S.'s most powerful bunker-buster bombs are not likely to penetrate it, as the site is buried up to 2,000 feet below granite. On Wednesday, the State Department ordered the departure of nonemergency U.S. government employees and their family members from Saudi Arabia as the Iran-backed Houthis continue to attack the Kingdom. U.S. intelligence found that Iranian plots to target and kill U.S. officials in the Middle East have “substantially increased,” with efforts reaching “advanced stages,” Director of National Intelligence Jay Clayton told Secretary of State Marco Rubio. “Specifically, through various channels, we have received intelligence that Iran has substantially increased efforts to target U.S. personnel,” Clayton said in a memo to Rubio, who also serves as Trump’s national security adviser. “The lethal plotting efforts by Iranians against U.S. citizens have reached advanced stages in both the Middle East and certain other countries.” Iranian leaders have signaled privately and publicly that the retaliation in the event of U.S. or Israeli attacks is going to be “bigger,” “more aggressive” and “different” than earlier this year, Brew said. Tehran is threatening to hit U.S. bases, warships, oil pipelines, refineries and U.S. allies in the Gulf, as Iran still has drone and missile capabilities. The potential for renewed hostilities in the region, which was reported earlier by The New York Times, also comes as oil prices reached their highest point since May. The potential for renewed hostilities in the region also comes as oil prices reached their highest point since May. Brent crude oil surpassed $117 a barrel on Friday, while U.S. benchmark West Texas Intermediate traded around $102. “In particular, regional officials and leadership members have been explicitly saying that undersea cables in the Persian Gulf, AI data centers and tech-related infrastructure, all of these will be regarded as targets to be fired on in an event that Iran comes under attack,” Brew noted. Tom Barrack, the U.S. ambassador to Turkey and Trump’s special envoy for Syria and Iraq, indicated there could be military action against Iran over the weekend. "Could there be a strike this weekend? Absolutely. The president has been clear, I'm giving you American policy, the president is very clear: he's open, and available and accessible to a deal. And we've been at the table for months and months and months,” Barrack said in an interview with Lebanese-Australian entrepreneur and political commentator Mario Nawfal, which was published on Friday.

当周五被问及巴拉克的言论时,特朗普瞥了一眼身旁的佛罗里达州州长罗恩·德桑蒂斯(共和党),说道:“那是我的大使……我想他是个相当有权势的人。”“如果真是这样,我对此一无所知。”

“That was my ambassador…he is a pretty powerful man, I guess,” Trump said when asked about Barrack’s comments on Friday, glancing over to Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R). "If that’s the case, I don’t know anything about it."

“我们可能会再来一次小规模的‘史诗般的愤怒’。要么他们同意。如果他们聪明,就会说‘让我们谈正事’。我怀疑他们不会这么做,因为也许他们不聪明,”特朗普在周五于佛罗里达州迈尔斯堡的集会上说道。

“We may do another little epic fury. Or they’ll agree. If they’re smart, they’ll just say ‘Let’s get down to business.’ I doubt they’ll do that because perhaps they are not smart,” Trump said during his Friday rally in Fort Myers, Fla.

当询问白宫关于伊朗袭击计划时,该办公室将《国会山报》引向总统周五的简短记者会。特朗普周三表示,美国没有在与伊朗谈判,并为恢复动能行动留有余地。

When asked the White House about the Iran strike plans, the office referred The Hill to the president’s gaggle on Friday. Trump said on Wednesday the U.S. is not negotiating with Iran and left the door open for kinetic action to resume.

“我们将会有某种结果,无论以何种方式,都将在相当短的时间内发生。大多数人似乎认为这将在大选之后,我们将拭目以待,”总统对记者说。“但我要说的是:我们在伊朗问题上所做的一切令人惊叹。”

“We are going to have something one way or the other that'll happen fairly soon. Most people seem to think it's after the election, and we're going to see what happens,” the president told reporters. “But I will say this: what we've done with Iran is amazing.”

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