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新兴市场股票在关键财报发布前下跌,卢拉获胜后巴西成焦点EM Stocks Fall Before Key Earnings, Brazil in Focus as Lula Wins

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新兴市场股票周一开盘走低,投资者正等待全球一些最大科技公司的财报,以寻找人工智能交易能否从惨烈抛售中复苏的线索。

Emerging-market stocks started the week lower as investors awaited earnings from some of the world’s biggest technology companies for clues on whether the artificial intelligence trade can recover from a bruising selloff.

MSCI新兴市场股票指数周一下跌0.3%,延续上周2.6%的跌幅。韩国综合股价指数(Kospi)和恒生科技指数盘中均下跌至少1%。类似的新兴市场货币指数上涨0.1%,而彭博美元指数小幅走低。

MSCI’s index for developing-world stocks dropped 0.3% on Monday, extending last week’s 2.6% decline. The Kospi and Hang Seng Tech index both fell at least 1% intraday. A similar index for EM currencies added 0.1%, while a Bloomberg dollar gauge edged lower.

微软公司、Alphabet公司和亚马逊公司本周将发布财报,人工智能主题成为焦点,投资者正在寻找大规模投入该技术将获得回报的证据。投资者有多紧张的一个迹象是,Meta Platforms公司股价上周下跌,尽管该公司表示将增加对人工智能的投资。高盛集团策略师将韩国综合股价指数的目标位下调25%,该指数汇集了一些最大的人工智能公司。

Microsoft Corp., Alphabet Inc. and Amazon.com Inc. are due to report this week, putting the AI theme in focus as investors look for evidence that massive spending on the technology will pay off. In a sign of how nervous investors are, Meta Platforms Inc’s shares dropped last week even after the company said it would set up investment in AI. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. strategists cut their target for South Korea’s Kospi Index, home to some of the biggest AI firms, by 25%.

Gama Asset Management SA全球宏观投资组合经理Rajeev De Mello表示:“人工智能担忧继续冲击韩国,台湾和中国科技股继续因电池板块因担心该市场增长放缓而非常疲软而重新定价走低。巴西正在给本已充满不确定性的上周增加另一层不确定性。”交易员正为巴西市场周一出现大幅亏损做准备,此前总统路易斯·伊纳西奥·卢拉·达席尔瓦上演惊天逆转,击败了许多投资者青睐的右翼候选人弗拉维奥·博尔索纳罗。

“AI concerns continue to impact Korea, Taiwan and China tech continues to reprice lower with the battery sector very weak on concerns about slowing growth in that market,” said Rajeev De Mello, global macro portfolio manager at Gama Asset Management SA. “Brazil is adding another source of uncertainty to what was an uncertain last week.”Traders are bracing for steep losses across Brazilian markets Monday after President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva staged a stunning comeback to defeat Flávio Bolsonaro, the right-wing candidate favored by many investors.

一只追踪巴西股票的ETF在日本暴跌高达16%,创下2020年以来最大盘中跌幅,芝加哥商品交易所(CME)的一份货币衍生品合约显示雷亚尔兑美元报5.55。

An ETF tracking Brazilian equities tumbled as much as 16% in Japan, the most intraday since 2020, and a currency derivatives contract on the CME exchange showed the real at 5.55 per dollar.

博尔索纳罗呼吁宣布选举结果无效,指控最高法院在强制要求最后一刻延长投票时间时改变了规则。

Bolsonaro called for annulment of the result, accusing the Supreme Court of changing the rules when it mandated a last-minute extension of voting hours.

“博索纳罗决定对结果提出异议,增加了长期政治不确定性的前景,给巴西资产带来了更大压力,”德梅洛说。

“Bolsonaro’s decision to contest the result raises the prospect of prolonged political uncertainty, adding to the pressure on Brazilian assets,” De Mello said.

本周本已大事频发,未来几天美联储和日本央行等主要央行的政策决定更增添了变数。它们对利率的审议是在全球通胀压力、债券收益率上升以及因美伊战争持续导致能源市场波动的背景下进行的。

Adding to an already event-heavy week are policy decisions by major central banks including the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan in the coming days. Their deliberations on interest rates come in the backdrop of global inflationary pressures, higher bond yields and volatility in energy markets due to the ongoing US-Iran war.

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