你好，我是莱奥尼·基德，为您带来今日早间尖叫版。两个冲击——一个繁忙的早晨。巴西的早期选举结果引发了该国资产的隔夜抛售。
Hello, this is Leonie Kidd with today's edition of Morning Squawk. Two shocks - one busy morning. The early election result in Brazil has sparked an overnight sell-off in the country's assets.
与此同时，埃隆·马斯克加入了新云争论，发出严厉警告称，这些受打击的股票将面临“鳗鱼级死亡”。期货勉强维持小幅涨幅，但岌岌可危。
While Elon Musk has stepped into the neocloud debate with a stark warning that these beaten-up stocks face a "guppy-level death." Futures are clinging on to small gains, but only just.
正在发生：戏剧性逆转。路易斯·伊纳西奥·卢拉·达席尔瓦赢得了巴西总统前所未有的第四个任期，实现了戏剧性逆转，此前第一轮投票中他落后于对手参议员弗拉维奥·博尔索纳罗。
Happening now: Dramatic Comeback Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva has won an unprecedented fourth term as Brazil's president, in a dramatic comeback from a first-round vote that saw him trailing rival Senator Flávio Bolsonaro.
路透社报道，博尔索纳罗拒绝承认失败，称他将寻求撤销选举结果。他还表示，最高法院法官克里斯蒂亚诺·扎宁延长投票两小时的裁决“不可接受”，据该报道称。
Bolsonaro has refused to concede defeat, saying he would seek the annulment of the outcome, Reuters reported. He also said a ruling by Supreme Court Justice Cristiano Zanin to extend voting for two hours was "unacceptable," according to the report.
即时反应：根据选举结果，iShares MSCI巴西ETF（EWZ）隔夜下跌超过20%，这可能预示该ETF历史上最大的单日跌幅。巴西雷亚尔11月期货在亚洲交易中下跌10%。
Instant reaction: The iShares MSCI Brazil ETF (EWZ) fell over 20% overnight on the results, which could signal the biggest one-day drop in the ETF's history. Brazilian Real November futures fell 10% in Asian trading.
股市暴跌：巴西股票的美国上市股票盘前也大幅下跌，其中巴西石油公司下跌超过20%，银行集团伊塔乌联合银行下跌近30%，啤酒商安贝维下跌19%。
Stocks in freefall: U.S.-listed shares of Brazilian stocks also fell premarket, with Petrobras down over 20%, banking group Itaú Unibanco down almost 30% and brewer Ambev off 19%.
分析：博尔索纳罗曾被视为更亲市场的候选人，预期他将推动财政紧缩和放松管制。卢拉将不得不说服市场，他能够稳定债务轨迹。
Analysis: Bolsonaro had been seen as a more market-friendly candidate, with expectations that he would push for fiscal austerity and deregulation. Lula will have to convince markets he can stabilize the debt trajectory.
为何这对特朗普重要：美国总统曾庆祝博尔索纳罗在第一轮投票中的领先，希望一位右翼同僚能使美国外交政策更加紧密地协调一致。另外。
Why it matters to Trump: The U.S. President had celebrated Bolsonaro's lead in the first round, hoping that a fellow right-wing leader could bring closer alignment with U.S. foreign policy. Also .
民调显示，选举可能是内塔尼亚胡支持阵营与以退役军事总长加迪·艾森科特为主要挑战者的中间派反对派阵营之间的一场势均力敌的竞争。
Polls suggest the election could be a tight race between Netanyahu's bloc of support and an opposition bloc with centrist former military chief Gadi Eisenkot as the leading challenger for the top job.
分析：此次投票被视为对现任总理本雅明·内塔尼亚胡的公投，国防与安全是关键的竞选议题。
Analysis: The vote is being seen as a referendum on incumbent Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, with defense and security as key campaign issues.
内部视角：以色列总统伊萨克·赫尔佐格对MSNow表示，特朗普总统对内塔尼亚胡的背书不会影响赫尔佐格在组建任何联盟中的角色。重大异动：“孔雀鱼级别的死亡”处境艰难的新云（neocloud）类股票隔夜再遭打击。这一次来自埃隆·马斯克在X.Com上的言论……他的言论已使CoreWeave、Nebius和IREN的股价在盘前交易中大幅下跌。这些股票在10月份已各自下跌超过30%，原因是信贷投资者将其收益率推高至困境水平，质疑这些公司以激进水平的债务建设数据中心的商业模式。
Inside view: The President of Israel, Isaac Herzog, told MSNow that President Trump's endorsement of Netanyahu would not influence Herzog's role in forming any coalition. Big movers: "Guppy-level death" The beleaguered neocloud stocks have been dealt another blow overnight. This time from Elon Musk on X.Com... His comments have sent shares of CoreWeave, Nebius, and IREN deep into the red in premarket trading. The stocks are already down over 30% each in October as credit investors blew their yields out to distressed levels, doubting their business model of using aggressive levels of debt to build data centers.
随你挑哪种比喻：Roundhill的戴夫·马扎表示，“投资者正在做的是把婴儿连同洗澡水一起倒掉”，而Equity Armour的布莱恩·斯图特兰则问道：“你能在泳池的一处扔下一个保龄球，而下游却不起任何波澜吗？”周一早盘油价也走低。此前周五油价大幅上涨，因胡塞武装再次袭击沙特阿拉伯，引发了对供应中断的担忧。
Pick your metaphor: Roundhill's Dave Mazza says, "what investors are doing is throwing every baby out with the bathwater" while Equity Armour's Brian Stutland asked, "can you drop a bowling ball in one part of the pool and not get any waves downstream?" Oil prices are also lower in early trading on Monday. The pullback follows a sharp rally on Friday after fresh Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia stoked disruption fears.
独家：国际能源署执行主任法提赫·比罗尔对CNBC表示，在近期释放石油库存之后，该组织“准备再次采取行动”并支持市场，同时补充说，他预计能源市场在2027年不会恢复到战前水平。持续发展的报道：裂痕显现？
Exclusive: IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol told CNBC the organization stands "ready to act again" and support markets following its recent release of oil stocks, while adding he does not expect energy markets to return to pre-war levels in 2027. Developing story: Cracks showing?
在苹果新款iPhone Duo向顾客开售的第一个周末过后，投资者可以开始评估其市场反响。
Investors can start assessing the reception to Apple's new iPhone Duo after its first weekend on sale to customers.
分析师表示，周五的排队人数比以往几次发布时更短，同时供应问题也被标记为一项担忧。
Analysts said lines were shorter on Friday than at previous launches, while supply issues have also been flagged as a concern.
为何重要：既然iPhone Duo已真正交到顾客手中，周一应该会带来华尔街的首个有用反应、第三方销售数据以及渠道核查。
Why it matters: Monday should bring the first useful Street reaction, third-party sell-through data, and channel checks now that the iPhone Duo is actually in customers' hands.
接下来是什么？：CNBC的麦肯齐·西加洛斯今天将全程关注此事，目前有报道称屏幕出现裂纹和故障，同时网上也有人抱怨应用与更大屏幕的兼容性问题。
What next?: CNBC's MacKenzie Sigalos is across that today, amid reports of screen cracks and failures, while others online have complained about app compatibility with the wider screen.
本周：政策与财报 这是货币政策至关重要的一周，美联储、欧洲央行和日本央行都将公布利率决定。
This week: Policy and earnings It's a massive week for monetary policy, with rate decisions due from the Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, and Bank of Japan.
预测：预计这三家央行本季度都将维持利率不变。美联储已释放信号，表示将采取观望态度，尤其是在中期选举临近之际。欧洲央行预计也将按兵不动至12月。日本央行在上月加息后，预计也将维持利率不变至年底。
The predictions: all are expected to hold interest rates this quarter. The Fed has already guided that it will be in wait-and-see mode, especially this close to the midterms. The ECB is also expected to hold until December. The BOJ is also seen holding out until the end of the year, after hiking rates last month.
这也是科技行业另一个关键的一周，Alphabet和微软将于周三发布财报，亚马逊将于周四发布。
It's also another key week for the tech sector, with Alphabet and Microsoft reporting on Wednesday, and Amazon on Thursday.
为何重要：投资者将关注Alphabet在前沿AI领域追赶竞争对手的迹象，同时一些分析师基于类似的AI加速预期上调了对微软的评级，而亚马逊预计将显示AWS云业务增长加快。最后……奥迪为在佐治亚州投资40亿美元建厂的计划辩护 底特律——奥迪首席执行官周日为该公司在佐治亚州投资40亿美元新建工厂的计划进行了辩护，称这是一项旨在促进销售并降低美国关税风险敞口的商业决策。
Why it matters: Investors will watch for signs that Alphabet is catching up with its rivals when it comes to frontier AI, while some analysts are upgrading Microsoft on similar AI acceleration hopes, and Amazon is expected to show more cloud growth at AWS. And Finally... Audi defends plans for a $4 billion Georgia plant DETROIT — Audi's CEO defended the carmaker's plans for a new $4 billion plant in Georgia on Sunday, calling it a business decision aimed at growing sales and reducing exposure to U.S. tariffs.
这座工厂将成为奥迪在美国的首家工厂，美国总统唐纳德·特朗普周六在佐治亚州的一场集会上宣布了这一消息，集会地点靠近这家大众汽车旗下的豪华品牌计划建设的新SUV生产设施所在地。
The plant, set to be Audi's first in the U.S., was announced Saturday by President Donald Trump during a rally in Georgia, near where the Volkswagen-owned luxury brand plans to build the new SUV-producing facility.
“我们对奥迪在美国的发展抱有更大的雄心，”奥迪首席执行官格诺特·德尔纳周日在媒体圆桌会上表示。“美国是全球第二大豪华车市场，而今天我们并未充分挖掘这一潜力。我们正在改变这一点。”约翰·梅洛伊编辑了本期内容。
"We have significantly greater ambitions for Audi in America," Audi CEO Gernot Dollner said during a media roundtable Sunday. "The United States is the second largest premium market in the world, and today we are not fully exploiting this potential. We are changing that. John Melloy edited this edition.