纽约/巴西利亚/伦敦——巴西总统路易斯·伊纳西奥·卢拉·达席尔瓦赢得连任后，巴西证券交易所周一触发熔断安全机制暂停交易，逆转了本月早些时候其右翼对手在第一轮投票中领先所带来的投资者看涨情绪。
NEW YORK/BRASILIA, Brazil/LONDON -- Brazil's stock exchange halted trading via a circuit breaker safety mechanism on Monday in the wake of President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva's reelection, undoing bullish investor sentiment after his right-wing rival led the first round of voting earlier in the month.
巴西市场开盘后，雷亚尔兑美元即期汇率贬值约12%，Bovespa股指期货暴跌近15%，而利率期货大幅上涨。抛售蔓延至巴西国际债券，长期债务受创最重，2056年到期的债券下跌近3美分。
The real weakened around 12% against the U.S. dollar in spot trading as trading in Brazil got underway and Bovespa stock index futures tumbled nearly 15%, while interest rate futures rose sharply. The selloff extended to Brazil's international bonds, with longer-dated debt hit hardest and the 2056 maturity down nearly 3 cents.
交易所运营商B3在一份声明中表示，基准Ibovespa指数较前收盘下跌10%，触发市场熔断机制，巴西证券交易所交易暂停30分钟。
Trading on Brazil's stock exchange was halted for 30 minutes after the benchmark Ibovespa index fell 10% from its previous close, triggering the market's circuit breaker mechanism, stock exchange operator B3 said in a statement.
此举之前，B3曾初步扩大Ibovespa股指期货、美元期货和利率期货的每日交易限额，以应对市场波动加剧。
The move came after B3 had initially expanded the daily trading limits for Ibovespa stock index futures, dollar futures and interest rate futures in response to heightened market volatility.
随着巴西市场大幅下挫，该国财政部取消了原定分别于10月27日和10月29日进行的通胀挂钩债券和固定利率政府债券的常规拍卖。
As Brazilian markets hemorrhaged, the country's Treasury cancelled its regular auctions of inflation-linked and fixed-rate government bonds scheduled for Oct. 27 and Oct. 29, respectively.
此次暴跌与本月早些时候的涨势形成鲜明逆转。当时，前总统雅伊尔·博索纳罗之子弗拉维奥·博索纳罗在巴西总统选举首轮投票中出人意料地排名第一，市场因预期转向右翼而飙升。
The collapse is a sharp reversal from the rally seen earlier this month, when markets soared on expectations of a shift to the right after Flavio Bolsonaro, the son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, unexpectedly finished first in the opening round of Brazil's presidential elections.
周五收盘时，股市较第一轮投票前水平高出近7%，而雷亚尔兑美元升值近5%。
Stocks closed on Friday almost 7% above their level before the first round, while the real was nearly 5% stronger against the U.S. dollar.
利率期货此前也反映出市场预期，即弗拉维奥·博索纳罗领导下更紧缩的财政政策将允许借贷成本下降。
Interest rate futures had also reflected expectations that tighter fiscal policy under Flavio Bolsonaro would allow borrowing costs to decline.
预测市场此前指向博索纳罗获胜，Kalshi周五定价其胜选概率超过75%。
Prediction markets had pointed to a Bolsonaro win, with Kalshi pricing in a more than 75% chance of that outcome on Friday.
沃伦投资公司宏观策略主管路易斯·费利佩·维塔尔表示：“我们预计周一市场将出现剧烈反应，激进的重定价、资产抛售以及利率期货可能在开盘后不久触及涨停上限。”
"We expect a sharp market reaction on Monday, with aggressive repricing, a selloff in assets and interest rate futures likely to hit their upper limit shortly after the open," said Luis Felipe Vital, head of macro strategy at Warren Investimentos.
博索纳罗拒绝承认败选并誓言寻求撤销选举结果，这加剧了投资者的不确定性。
Bolsonaro's refusal to concede and his pledge to seek an annulment added to investor uncertainty.
ING伦敦策略师克里斯·特纳表示：“对本地金融市场而言，重要的是博索纳罗多快接受结果——或者至少让宪法程序正常推进。”
"Important for local financial markets will be how quickly Bolsonaro accepts the result -- or at least allows the constitution to run its course," said Chris Turner, strategist at ING in London.
注意力现在将转向卢拉对财政部长人选的选择，以及这对其财政方针释放的信号。
Attention will now turn to Lula's choice of finance minister and what it signals about his fiscal approach.
加拿大皇家银行蓝湾资产管理公司的格雷厄姆·斯托克表示：“对市场而言，关键信号将是下一届卢拉政府对财政纪律的承诺，首先体现在未来几周任命新财政部长上。”
"The key signal for markets will be the next Lula administration's commitment to fiscal discipline, starting with the appointment of a new finance minister in coming weeks," said Graham Stock at RBC BlueBay Asset Management.
卢拉面临的挑战是，在保护社会项目和投资的同时减缓巴西债务的上升，而投资者正在寻找迹象，以判断其渐进式财政方针能否降低借贷成本。
Lula faces the challenge of slowing the rise in Brazil's debt while protecting social programs and investment, with investors looking for signs his gradual fiscal approach can bring borrowing costs down.
冯托贝尔资产管理公司投资组合经理蒂埃里·拉罗斯表示：“卢拉政府将别无选择，只能进行一些财政整顿，但大多数投资者怀疑这不足以让债务可持续性重回正轨。”
"(The) Lula administration will have no choice but to do some fiscal consolidation too, but most investors doubt it will be enough to put debt sustainability back on track," said Thierry Larose, portfolio manager at Vontobel Asset Management.
如果市场对卢拉能否兑现缺乏信心，贷款机构可能要求更高的利率，这将加重巴西的债务负担，并使企业和家庭的信贷成本更高。
Without confidence that Lula can deliver, lenders could demand higher interest rates, adding to Brazil's debt burden and making credit more expensive for businesses and households.
瑞银全球财富管理新兴市场首席投资官阿莱霍·切尔翁科表示：“投资者希望看到明确且可信的财政纪律承诺。我们预计，首轮选举后出现的上涨行情将在很大程度上被消化掉，而且在明确的财政计划出台之前，市场情绪将持续疲弱。”切尔翁科说，投资者希望竞选相关的支出能够结束，并希望看到一条可信的稳定公共债务的路径。他说：“这也意味着要与倾向反对派的国会建立合作关系，因为没有这种合作，任何财政计划都无法通过。”
"Investors want a clear and credible commitment to fiscal discipline," said Alejo Czerwonko, chief investment officer for emerging markets at UBS Global Wealth Management. "We expect the rally that followed the first round to be largely priced out, and sentiment to stay weak until a clear fiscal plan emerges." Czerwonko said investors wanted an end to campaign-related spending and a believable path to stabilize public debt. "It also means a working relationship with an opposition-leaning Congress, because no fiscal plan passes without it," he said.
卢拉的团队目标是到2030年实现约占国内生产总值1.3%的预算盈余。这将留下资金来支付部分利息支出，从而减少新增借款的需求。但公共债务已超过国内生产总值的82%，而养老金和其他法定支出限制了可削减开支的空间。
Lula's team aims to produce a budget surplus of about 1.3% of gross domestic product by 2030. That would leave money to cover part of the interest bill, reducing the need for fresh borrowing. But public debt already exceeds 82% of GDP, while pensions and other legally required spending limit where savings can come from.
Meridian 1305 Capital研究主管迪维娅·辛加拉维卢表示：“卢拉的政策谈到了削减开支，但他没有详细说明具体会是什么样子。”
"Lula's policies have talked about spending cuts, but he has not gone into the details of how that is going to look," said Divya Singaravelu, head of research at Meridian 1305 Capital.