
巴西公司原本计划在投票后的几周内进行总额约60亿美元的股权融资,他们预计这场投票将使保守派人士弗拉维奥·博尔索纳罗当选拉丁美洲最大经济体的下一任总统。
Brazilian companies had some $6 billion in equity sales lined up for the weeks after the vote that they expected would crown conservative Flávio Bolsonaro as the next president of Latin America’s largest economy.
然而,左翼现任总统路易斯·伊纳西奥·卢拉·达席尔瓦爆冷获胜后,据知情人士透露,涉及电力输送、收费公路和零售等多个行业的公司融资计划陷入混乱。投票后巴西市场暴跌,股票跌幅创下30年来最大,巴西雷亚尔汇率跌幅创二十年来之最。
Now, after a stunning upset by the left-wing incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, those plans are in disarray at companies spanning industries from power transmission to toll roads and retail, according to people familiar with the discussions. Brazilian markets are crashing in the wake of the vote, with stocks down the most in 30 years and the real falling the most in two decades.
据知悉圣保罗法里亚利马街(Faria Lima,巴西的华尔街)私下交谈的人士透露,投资银行家此前估计,在博尔索纳罗执政下,未来六个月仅增发股票就能筹集约300亿雷亚尔(60亿美元)。其设想是,挑战者承诺营造更宽松的商业环境,将提振股票估值,使巴西公司筹集资本的时机变得颇具吸引力。
Investment bankers had estimated that follow-on stock offerings alone could raise about 30 billion reais ($6 billion) over the next six months under a Bolsonaro administration, according to private conversations on Faria Lima in Sao Paulo, Brazil’s equivalent of Wall Street. The idea was that promises for an easier business climate under the challenger would bolster stock valuations, making it an attractive time for Brazilian companies to raise capital.
知情人士称,多家公司原本准备进行股权融资,最早可能在今天就启动,他们要求不具名讨论私下对话。如今,银行家们预计在2027年中期之前不会有任何融资交易。
Several companies were preparing equity sales that could have been launched as soon as today, the people said, asking not to be identified discussing private conversations. Now, bankers don’t expect any sales at all before mid-2027.
原本考虑进入股票市场的公司包括电力供应商Equatorial SA和收费公路运营商Ecorodovias Infraestrutura e Logistica SA。知情人士称,燃气公司Compass Gas e Energia SA、零售商Guararapes Confeccoes SA和电力输送公司Transmissora Alianca de Energia Eletrica SA也曾考虑进行增发股票。
Among companies that had been considering tapping the equity market were, power provider Equatorial SA and toll-road operator Ecorodovias Infraestrutura e Logistica SA. Gas company Compass Gas e Energia SA, retailer Guararapes Confeccoes SA and power transmission company Transmissora Alianca de Energia Eletrica SA had also been weighing follow-on offerings, the people said.
投票结果也打乱了多年筹备首次公开募股(IPO)的公司计划。知情人士称,Banco Votorantim SA是其中之一,该行本可能在2027年初重启上市计划,而Aegea Saneamento e Participacoes SA也在考虑明年晚些时候进行IPO。
The results also upended plans for companies that have spent years preparing for initial public offerings. Banco Votorantim SA was among those that could have revived listing plans, potentially in early 2027, while Aegea Saneamento e Participacoes SA was also considering an IPO later next year, the people said.
巴西沃托兰廷银行、Aegea、Transmissora Alianca de Energia Eletrica 和 Cosan 拒绝置评。Equatorial、Ecorodovias 和 Guararapes 暂未立即回复置评请求。
Banco Votorantim, Aegea, Transmissora Alianca de Energia Eletrica and Cosan declined to comment. Equatorial, Ecorodovias and Guararapes didn’t immediately reply to requests for comment.
高管和银行家正在重新评估巴西股市、利率和经济增长的前景,此前卢拉赢得大选胜利。市场认为卢拉不大可能推行降低利率所需的财政紧缩政策,他在第二轮投票中获得 51.8% 的选票。根据巴西选举法院的数据,博尔索纳罗获得 48.2% 的选票。
Executives and bankers are reassessing the outlook for Brazilian stocks, interest rates and economic growth following Lula’s victory. Lula, who markets see as unlikely to push for the fiscal austerity needed to lower interest rates, won 51.8% of the runoff vote. Bolsonaro got 48.2%, according to Brazil’s electoral court.
在首轮投票中博尔索纳罗意外表现强劲后,投资者曾押注他将获胜,引发了一波上涨行情并吸引了数十亿外资流入。包括 UBS 环球财富管理、摩根士丹利、摩根大通和花旗集团在内的机构纷纷发布看好巴西资产的报告。
Investors had bet on a Bolsonaro victory after his surprisingly strong showing in the first-round vote, triggering a rally and drawing in billions of foreign flows. Firms including UBS Global Wealth Management, Morgan Stanley, JPMorgan Chase & Co., and Citigroup Inc. rushed to put out bullish calls for Brazilian assets.
如今,这种重新评估已延伸至资本市场之外。知情人士称,涉及面向巴西消费者公司的并购交易也在重新考量中,因为投资者正在权衡大选结果对增长和消费者信心的影响。据知情人士透露,这包括 Azzas 2154 SA 关于出售时装零售商 Farm Rio 的谈判。Azzas 2154 暂未立即回复置评请求。
Now, the reassessment is extending beyond capital markets. Mergers and acquisitions involving companies exposed to Brazilian consumers are also being reconsidered as investors weigh the implications of the election for growth and consumer confidence, the people said. That includes Azzas 2154 SA’s discussions involving a sale of fashion retailer Farm Rio, according to the people. Azzas 2154 didn’t immediately reply to a request for comment.
企业界领袖也将目光转向卢拉的经济团队和税收政策前景。他们预计财政背景将十分艰难,因为预计耗资超过 500 亿雷亚尔的竞选承诺现在需要兑现,但他们希望总统会任命中间派人士担任关键职位。
Business leaders are also turning their attention to Lula’s economic team and the outlook for tax policy. They expect a difficult fiscal backdrop as campaign promises expected to cost more than 50 billion reais now have to be funded, but are hoping the president will appoint centrist figures to key posts.
据熟悉巴西企业界想法的人士透露,皮奥伊州州长拉斐尔·丰特莱斯被提及为财政部部长的潜在亲商人选,参议员卡米洛·桑塔纳则被提及为总统办公厅主任人选。有人担心,丰特莱斯在以逾70%的得票率连任州长后不久,不太可能辞去州长职务入阁。副总统杰拉尔多·阿尔克明也被提及为某个职位的人选,但商界并非普遍支持他,上述人士称。一位卢拉竞选团队官员未立即回复置评请求。
Piaui state Governor Rafael Fonteles has been mentioned as a potential business-friendly name for the Finance Ministry and Senator Camilo Santana for chief of staff, according to the people familiar with corporate Brazil’s thinking. There’s some concern that Fonteles is unlikely to step down as governor to join the administration so soon after being reelected with more than 70% of the vote. Vice President Geraldo Alckmin has also been floated for a post, though the business community doesn’t universally support him, people said. A Lula campaign officer didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment.
巴西企业高管在卢拉最近的任期内与其关系紧张,他们不指望下一任期会有重大改变。但有人乐观认为,国家经济社会发展银行(BNDES)将成为企业的重要合作伙伴,可能会提供类似于今年早些时候向物流公司Simpar SA注资那样的资金注入,上述人士称。
Brazilian business executives had a contentious relationship with Lula during his most recent term, and they don’t expect a significant change for the next one. But there is optimism that state development bank BNDES becoming an important partner for companies, potentially by providing cash injections similar to the one involving logistics company Simpar SA earlier this year, the people said.
如果卢拉提出一个可信的遏制开支计划,并任命一个被视为致力于财政纪律的经济团队,市场可能会趋于稳定,上述人士称。
The market could stabilize if Lula presents a credible plan to contain spending and appoints an economic team viewed as committed to fiscal discipline, the people said.