路易斯·伊纳西奥·卢拉·达席尔瓦周日在巴西总统决选中连任，这是预测市场赔率未能预料到的冷门结果。
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva was reelected president of Brazil on Sunday in a runoff election, an upset that prediction markets odds failed to anticipate.
根据巴西最高选举法院的数据，卢拉以51.8%对48.2%的得票率击败了右翼候选人、前总统雅伊尔·博尔索纳罗之子弗拉维奥·博尔索纳罗。
Lula defeated Flávio Bolsonaro, the right-wing candidate and son of former president Jair Bolsonaro, by 51.8% to 48.2%, according to the country's Superior Electoral Court.
直到周日下午，卢拉在预测市场上仍是显著的弱势一方。甚至在周日晚间美东时间8:30刚过，卢拉在Kalshi平台上的获胜几率仅为21%。
As late as Sunday afternoon, Lula remained a significant underdog on prediction markets. Even just after 8:30 p.m. ET on Sunday, Lula's odds were at 21% on Kalshi.
在10月4日首轮投票后，博尔索纳罗在预测市场上的赔率飙升，Kalshi和Polymarket两个平台一度给博尔索纳罗击败卢拉的几率超过80%。Kalshi的合约问题是“巴西总统大选获胜者？”，并由美联社的报道进行验证。
Bolsonaro's odds on prediction markets surged after first-round voting on Oct. 4, with both Kalshi and Polymarket giving Bolsonaro an over 80% chance of ousting Lula. The Kalshi contract asked, "Brazil Presidential election winner?" and was verified by reporting from the Associated Press.
Kalshi联合创始人兼首席执行官塔雷克·曼苏尔此前曾为Kalshi的选举合约进行辩护。8月，Kalshi显示威斯康星州民主党社会主义者弗朗西斯卡·洪在民主党州长初选中击败密尔沃基县行政长官大卫·克劳利的可能性为95%。结果洪以不到1个百分点的差距落败。
Kalshi co-founder and CEO Tarek Mansour has previously defended Kalshi's election contracts. In August, Kalshi reflected a 95% likelihood of Wisconsin Democratic socialist Francesca Hong winning the Democratic gubernatorial primary over Milwaukee County executive David Crowley. Instead, Hong lost the race by less than 1 percentage point.
曼苏尔在8月12日于X平台发布的社交媒体帖子中写道：“在‘预测市场搞错了’的标题出现之前：5%的概率并不意味着不会发生。这意味着这种情况应该每20次发生1次。如果5%的候选人永远赢不了，市场才是坏了。”赔率和预测市场平台不使用传统政治民调的方法，因此不能替代政治民调。
"Before the 'prediction markets got it wrong' headlines roll in: a 5% probability doesn't mean it won't happen," Mansour wrote in an Aug. 12 social media post on X. "It means it should happen 1 in 20 times. If 5% candidates never won, the markets would be broken." Odds and prediction market platforms do not use methodologies used by traditional political polling, and therefore are not substitutes for political polls.
与指向博尔索纳罗明显获胜的预测市场赔率不同，政治民调在决选前几天显示竞争胶着。
Unlike prediction market odds, which pointed to a clear Bolsonaro victory, political polls showed a tight race in the days leading up to the contest.
巴西最高法院还在周日晚间将投票时间延长了两小时，博尔索纳罗辩称这损害了他赢得总统职位的机会。路透社报道，博尔索纳罗预计将对结果提出挑战。
Brazil's Supreme Court also extended voting for two hours late Sunday, which Bolsonaro argued hurt his chances of winning the presidency. Bolsonaro is expected to challenge the outcome, Reuters reported.
随着卢拉获胜，与巴西相关的股票和ETF周一大幅下跌。iShares MSCI巴西ETF（EWZ）暴跌22%，而在美交易的伊塔乌联合银行和布拉德斯科银行股价分别暴跌20%和近30%。啤酒制造商安贝夫和巴西国家石油公司股价均下跌逾15%。
Following Lula's victory, Brazil-linked stocks and ETFs slid on Monday. The iShares MSCI Brazil ETF (EWZ) shed 22%, while U.S.-traded shares of Itau Unibanco and Banco Bradesco tanked 20% and nearly 30%, respectively. Brewer Ambev and Petrobras each declined more than 15%.
披露：CNBC与Kalshi存在商业关系，包括客户获取和少数股权投资。
Disclosure: CNBC and Kalshi have a commercial relationship that includes customer acquisition and a minority investment.