
卢拉在巴西获胜,接下来会发生什么?路易斯·伊纳西奥·卢拉·达席尔瓦总统赢得第四个任期,终结了拉丁美洲一连串保守派胜利的势头。他的对手对结果提出异议。
Victory in Brazil, and What Comes Next President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva won a fourth term, halting a string of conservative victories in Latin America. His opponent disputed the result. President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva of Brazil won re-election on Sunday, according to official preliminary results, punctuating a string of conservative wins across Latin America.
根据官方初步结果,巴西总统路易斯·伊纳西奥·卢拉·达席尔瓦于周日赢得连任,为拉丁美洲一连串保守派胜利画上句号。他的右翼对手弗拉维奥·博索纳罗拒绝接受这一结果。
His right-wing opponent, Flávio Bolsonaro, refused to accept the outcome. Mr. Lula became the first presidential candidate since 1989 to win after finishing second in the opening round.
卢拉成为自1989年以来首位在首轮投票中排名第二、最终却赢得大选的总统候选人。在短短三周内,他的得票增加了1000多万张,在全国各地扩大了优势。
In just three weeks, he added more than 10 million votes, gaining ground across the country. Mr. Lula received 51.8 percent of the vote, compared with 48.2 percent for Mr. Bolsonaro, with nearly all ballots counted.
在几乎全部选票清点完毕后,卢拉获得51.8%的选票,博索纳罗获得48.2%。此前一名法官将投票时间延长了两个小时——这一变动是两位候选人阵营都曾要求的——博索纳罗随后呼吁取消此次选举。以下是需要了解的内容:为什么这次选举结果意义重大?
Mr. Bolsonaro called for the election to be annulled after a judge extended voting hours by two hours, a change that both campaigns had requested. Here’s what to know: Why is the election result significant?
卢拉做到了自1989年巴西恢复总统直选以来没有任何候选人做到的事:他在本月首轮投票中排名第二,最终却赢得了选举。在此前的九次选举中,首轮领先者都赢得了总统职位,无论是直接胜出还是在第二轮决选中获胜。
Mr. Lula accomplished what no candidate had done since Brazil restored direct presidential elections in 1989: He won after finishing second in the opening round this month. In each of the nine preceding elections, the first-round leader won the presidency, either outright or in a runoff.
卢拉曾在1989年试图扭转这种劣势,但未能成功。在首轮输给费尔南多·科洛尔·德梅洛后,他争取到了被击败对手的支持,民调支持率大幅上升。他最终在第二轮决选中以53%对47%落败。
Mr. Lula tried and failed to overcome such a deficit in 1989. After finishing second to Fernando Collor de Mello, he rallied support from defeated rivals and surged in the polls. He ultimately lost in the runoff, 53 percent to 47 percent.
周日的胜利为他非凡的政治生涯再添一次逆转。现年80岁的卢拉在军政府统治时期参与创建了劳工党,在2002年获胜之前曾三次竞选总统失败。2018年,他因腐败定罪入狱并被禁止参选;次年其腐败定罪被撤销,他于2022年回归并击败雅伊尔·博索纳罗。如今他又赢得了前所未有的第四个任期。
His victory on Sunday added another reversal to an extraordinary political career. Mr. Lula, 80, helped found the Workers’ Party under military rule and lost three presidential elections before winning in 2002. Jailed and barred from running in 2018, he returned to defeat Jair Bolsonaro in 2022 after his corruption convictions were annulled the previous year. He has now won an unprecedented fourth term.
卢拉将其参选定位为捍卫民主、保护巴西主权并防止博尔索纳罗家族重返执政的方式。45岁的弗拉维奥·博尔索纳罗承诺恢复其父的保守议程,同时将自己塑造为更温和的继任者。
Mr. Lula framed his candidacy as a way to defend democracy, protect Brazil’s sovereignty and prevent the Bolsonaro family’s return to power. Flávio Bolsonaro, 45, promised to restore his father’s conservative agenda while casting himself as a more moderate successor.
这一结果也阻止了右翼在地区的推进。尽管特朗普总统没有公开支持巴西的任何一位候选人,而他在拉丁美洲的另外两场选举中曾这样做,但其政府试图以微妙的方式加强博尔索纳罗的竞选活动。
The result also halted a regional advance by the right. Although President Trump did not openly champion either candidate in Brazil, as he had in two other elections in Latin America, his administration tried in subtle ways to bolster Mr. Bolsonaro’s campaign.
卢拉曾多次反抗特朗普,他说,过去一周的集会浪潮“表明这个国家拒绝成为任何人的后院”。这显然是指美国,美国一直试图通过关税、制裁和选举干预等措施,对拉丁美洲施加新的控制水平。选举日发生了什么?
Mr. Lula, who has repeatedly defied Mr. Trump, said the surge of rallies in the past week “was a demonstration that this country refuses to be anyone’s backyard.”It was an apparent reference to the United States, which has been trying to exert new levels of control over Latin America through measures such as tariffs, sanctions and election intervention. What happened on Election Day?
卢拉的胜选优势为3.6个百分点,比四年前更大。很少有民调机构预测到他的反弹。
Mr. Lula’s margin of victory, 3.6 percentage points, was wider than it was four years ago. Few pollsters had predicted his comeback.
在新闻发布会上,博尔索纳罗拒绝承认选举结果,并表示将寻求使选举无效。他将法院延长投票时间的决定描述为“肮脏的伎俩”,并补充说,“今天发生的事情不正常,甚至不可接受。”两位候选人都曾申请延长投票时间。博尔索纳罗表示,该国他拥有强大支持的部分地区发生的洪水将不公平地损害他,而卢拉则指责公职人员故意在他在第一轮投票中获胜的地区减缓公共交通。
At a news conference, Mr. Bolsonaro refused to recognize the result and said he would seek to have the election annulled. He described the court’s decision to extend voting hours as a “dirty trick,” adding, “What happened today was not normal, and it was even unacceptable.”Both candidates had requested the additional time. Mr. Bolsonaro said that flooding in a part of the country where he had strong support would unfairly hurt him, while Mr. Lula accused public officials of deliberately slowing public transportation in areas where he had won in the first round of voting.
一名法官在投票站关闭前几分钟决定延长所有投票站的营业时间。但公告发布时,一些投票中心已经关闭,其投票机已关机,无法重新开放。接下来会怎样?
A judge decided minutes before polls closed to extend hours at all polling stations. But by the time of the announcement, some polling centers had already closed and their voting machines had shut down, preventing them from reopening. What comes next?
为了寻求选举结果作废,博索纳罗所属政党需要向有关部门申请复核结果。自巴西恢复民主以来,从未有总统选举被宣告作废。
To seek to have the election annulled, Mr. Bolsonaro’s party will need to petition the authorities for a review of the results. Since Brazil’s return to democracy, no presidential election has been annulled.
2014年大选中,落败政党曾请求审计,但审查未发现舞弊证据,结果得以维持。2022年,自由党同样对雅伊尔·博索纳罗的选举失利提出质疑,却未能提供证据支持其指控,并被法院罚款。
In the 2014 election, the losing party requested an audit, but the review found no evidence of fraud and the results were upheld. In 2022, the Liberal Party similarly challenged Jair Bolsonaro’s election loss but failed to provide evidence to support its accusations and was fined by a court.
塞阿拉联邦大学教授拉奎尔·马查多表示,弗拉维奥·博索纳罗所属的自由党有两条可能的途径来挑战结果。它可以寻求技术审计,以确定不平等的投票条件是否影响了结果,从而可能导致选举被宣告作废。或者,它可以通过最高选举法院监察长提起滥用职权诉讼,这可能导致卢拉及其竞选搭档杰拉尔多·阿尔克明被取消资格,即使他们已就职。
Flávio Bolsonaro’s Liberal Party has two possible paths to challenge the result, said Raquel Machado, a professor at the Federal University of Ceará. It could seek a technical audit to determine whether unequal voting conditions affected the outcome, potentially leading to an annulment of the election. Or it could pursue an abuse-of-power case through the Superior Electoral Court’s inspector general, which could disqualify Mr. Lula and his running mate, Geraldo Alckmin, even after they take office.
但马查多教授指出,当最高法院的命令公布时,许多投票站已经关闭,且下午5点(当地时间)后并未出现大量选民涌入的情况。
But Professor Machado noted that many polling stations had closed by the time the Supreme Court’s order was made public and that there had been no significant influx of voters after 5 p.m. local time.
卢拉所属的工人党可能会就选举日公共巴士服务受限提出自己的质疑。亚当·B·埃利克是《纽约时报》驻巴西圣保罗分社社长。严庄是《纽约时报》驻首尔记者,负责突发新闻报道。
Mr. Lula’s Workers’ Party could bring its own challenge over restrictions on public bus services on Election Day. Adam B. Ellick is The Times’s Brazil bureau chief, based in São Paulo. Yan Zhuang is a Times reporter in Seoul who covers breaking news.