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卢拉的社交媒体竞选活动如何助他赢得巴西大选How Lula’s Social Media Campaign Helped Him Win Brazil’s Election

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巴西总统路易斯·伊纳西奥·卢拉·达席尔瓦在周日赢得连任,这得益于一场震撼人心的社交媒体竞选活动,它说服巴西选民拒绝了他的对手。

The Digital Army That Catapulted Lula to Victory in Brazil President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva won another term on Sunday, with the help of a seismic social media campaign that convinced Brazilians to reject his rival.

一切始于一个拥有数千名关注者的WhatsApp频道。它迅速壮大为一支拥有1000万人的“数字大军”,帮助扭转了拉丁美洲最大选举的局势。

It started with a WhatsApp channel with a few thousand followers. It exploded into a digital army of 10 million people that helped swing Latin America’s biggest election.

巴西总统路易斯·伊纳西奥·卢拉·达席尔瓦在周日上演惊天逆转,意外战胜了右翼挑战者弗拉维奥·博索纳罗,后者的父亲在上届大选失利后曾试图发动政变。

President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva of Brazil staged a stunning comeback on Sunday, achieving an unexpected victory over Flávio Bolsonaro, the right-wing challenger whose father tried to stage a coup after losing the last election.

卢拉获胜,完成了巴西历史上从未有过的壮举——他在首轮投票中落后,却最终赢得大选。

In winning, Mr. Lula did what no other presidential candidate has accomplished in Brazil’s history — he won election after finishing second in the first round.

他的胜利在很大程度上归功于社交媒体。海量的信息、表情包和短视频淹没了这个长期沉浸网络的2.14亿人口大国,将持有不同观点的数百万巴西人团结在一项单一任务周围:阻止博索纳罗家族重掌大权。

His victory rested, to a significant degree, on social media. A tidal wave of messages, memes and reels flooded Brazil, a chronically online nation of 214 million, and rallied millions of Brazilians with diverging views around a single task: barring the return of the Bolsonaro family to power.

卢拉的胜利向横扫拉丁美洲、并受到特朗普总统喝彩的右翼运动发出了有力回击。这也给华盛顿在该地区谋求经济和军事主导地位的计划造成打击,延续了拉丁美洲唯一——也是全球为数不多的——无视特朗普意愿的领导人的统治。

Mr. Lula’s win delivered a powerful rebuke to a right-wing movement barreling through Latin America that has been applauded by President Trump. It also deals a blow to Washington’s plans for economic and military dominance in the region, extending the reign of the only leader in Latin America — and one of the few globally — who has defied Mr. Trump.

卢拉的获胜优势约为2022年的两倍,当时他以微弱优势击败了弗拉维奥的父亲雅伊尔·博索纳罗。这一成就更为非凡,因为卢拉作为弱势方进入竞选,在首轮和次轮投票之间获得了超过1000万张选票,即周日可争取的新增选票中约四分之三。小博索纳罗获得的额外选票约为400万张。

Mr. Lula won by about double the margin he achieved in 2022, when he narrowly defeated Mr. Bolsonaro’s father, Jair Bolsonaro. The achievement is all the more remarkable because Mr. Lula, who entered the race as the underdog, received more than 10 million votes between the first and second rounds of the election, or roughly three out of every four new votes up for grabs on Sunday. The younger Mr. Bolsonaro captured roughly four million additional votes than he did in the first round.

“这是全球民主的一场巨大胜利,”里约热内卢州立大学政治学家克里斯蒂安·林奇说。他说,这是由巴西选民前所未有的动员推动的。“我们从未见过这样的事情。”这些选票来自一些意想不到的来源。

“It was a very big victory for global democracy,” said Christian Lynch, a political scientist at Rio de Janeiro State University. It was driven, he said, by an unprecedented mobilization of Brazilian voters. “We never saw anything like this.”These votes came from some unexpected sources.

首先,有900万人在首轮投票中投给了次要保守派候选人。分析人士认为,这些选票中相当一部分投给了卢拉,而不是年纪较轻的博尔索纳罗,这违背了投票前的预测。

For one, nine million people voted for minor conservative candidates in the first round. Analysts believe a significant slice of those votes went to Mr. Lula rather than the younger Mr. Bolsonaro, defying predictions ahead of the vote.

这表明,博尔索纳罗家族那种右翼政治主张最终未能说服一些温和保守派。

This suggested that the Bolsonaro family’s brand of right-wing politics had ultimately failed to convince some moderate conservatives.

“我更倾向于右翼——但不是现在存在的极右翼,”38岁的里约热内卢餐饮顾问莱安德罗·坎蒂尼·洛佩斯说,他在周日投了卢拉的票,此前他支持一位温和保守派。

“I’m much more of a right-wing guy — but not the far right that exists now,” said Leandro Cantini Lopes, 38, a restaurant consultant in Rio de Janeiro, who voted for Mr. Lula on Sunday after supporting a moderate conservative earlier.

投票率在首轮和次轮之间还增加了近300万,在首轮投票后弃权率往往上升的巴西,这种逆转极不寻常。弃权率降至巴西历次总统大选中的最低水平——这也是卢拉成功动员支持者大量投票的另一个迹象。

Turnout also increased by nearly three million between the first and second rounds, a highly unusual reversal in a country where absenteeism tends to rise after the initial vote. Absenteeism fell to the lowest level of any Brazilian presidential election — another sign that Mr. Lula had succeeded in motiving supporters to turn out in big numbers.

分析人士说,一些选民之所以去投票,很可能是因为博尔索纳罗如果当总统可能拥有多大的权力而感到恐惧。随着他的政党在立法机构取得重大进展,他将面对一条几乎畅通无阻的道路,可以重写巴西的过去、重塑其未来。

Some voters were likely spooked into voting by just how much power Mr. Bolsonaro may have had as president, analysts said. With his political party making major strides in the legislature, he would have faced a mostly clear path to rewriting Brazil’s past and reshaping its future.

博尔索纳罗父上一年因在输掉上届大选给卢拉后试图发动政变,被判处27年监禁。他儿子发誓要为他寻求大赦,并弹劾判处他入狱的法官。

The elder Mr. Bolsonaro last year was sentenced to 27 years in prison for trying to stage a coup after losing the last election to Mr. Lula. His son has vowed to seek his amnesty and impeach the justices who jailed him.

费利佩·豪雷尔胡克(Felipe Haurelhuk,41岁)开始感到担忧,当时小博索纳罗在首轮投票获胜后,开始谈论在其政治盟友的帮助下重写巴西宪法。在本月初投票给另一位保守派候选人后,他决定把选票投给卢拉。

Felipe Haurelhuk, 41, started worrying when the younger Mr. Bolsonaro, triumphant after his first-round victory, began talking about rewriting Brazil’s Constitution with the help of his political allies. He decided to cast a ballot for Mr. Lula, after voting for a different conservative candidate earlier this month.

“对民主来说很可怕,”这位在圣保罗经营美容院的豪雷尔胡克提到博索纳罗可能获胜时说。“在卢拉领导下,巴西将继续在一定程度上原地踏步,”他补充道。“但这总比把权力交给博索纳罗阵营要好。”数字化反击仅仅三周前,卢拉获胜似乎难以想象。他在首轮投票中落后博索纳罗220万张选票,分析人士宣称他已濒临失败。

“Terrible for democracy,” Mr. Haurelhuk, who owns a beauty salon in São Paulo, said referring to a potential Bolsonaro victory. “Brazil will keep moving somewhat sideways” under Mr. Lula, he added. “But better that than handling power over to the Bolsonaro camp.”A digital comeback Just three weeks ago, a triumph for Mr. Lula seemed unfathomable. He had finished 2.2 million votes behind Mr. Bolsonaro in the first round of voting, with analysts declaring him on the cusp of defeat.

随后,来自巴西人口最多的州之一的一位极具个人魅力的左翼议员在一个WhatsApp频道上发出了关键的动员令。在卢拉首轮投票失利的第二天凌晨6点,议员安德烈·雅诺内斯(André Janones)呼吁他的5.3万名追随者投入工作。他将该频道更名为“卢拉的军队”。

Then, a charismatic leftist lawmaker from one of Brazil’s most populous states made a fateful rallying cry on a WhatsApp channel. At 6 a.m. the day after Mr. Lula’s defeat in the first round, André Janones, the lawmaker, called on his 53,000 followers to get to work. He renamed the channel Lula’s Army.

全天候地,雅诺内斯以数字操练军士的角色,向该频道不断增长的追随者下达“任务”。在接下来的五天里,该群组成员激增至340万。

Around the clock, Mr. Janones, in the persona of a digital drill sergeant, would issue “missions” to the swelling number of followers in the channel. Over the next five days, the group grew to 3.4 million.

“紧急!”他在视频和语音信息中大喊,命令支持者在社交媒体上评论、点赞和分享支持卢拉的帖子。“让它病毒式传播!”在卢拉竞选团队和独立监督机构指控拥有WhatsApp的Meta公司在其平台上偏袒其右翼对手后,这场连任卢拉的网络狂热愈演愈烈。为了试图绕过算法,雅诺内斯和他的追随者开始拍摄身穿巴西黄色球衣——右翼象征——的视频,并采用博索纳罗运动通常使用的网络战术来扩大传播范围。

“Urgent!” he shouted in video and audio messages, ordering supporters to comment, like and share posts favoring Mr. Lula on social media. “Go viral!”The online frenzy to re-elect Mr. Lula only grew after accusations by his campaign and independent watchdogs that Meta, which owns WhatsApp, was favoring his right-wing rival on its platforms. To try to sidestep the algorithm, Mr. Janones and his followers began filming videos wearing Brazil’s yellow jersey — a symbol of the right — and using online tactics usually employed by Mr. Bolsonaro’s movement to increase its reach.

这个频道及其令人目眩的增长引起了博索纳罗和选举法院的注意。在选举法院的法官们进行了一番司法角力后,该频道获准继续运营。但由老博索纳罗任命的法院首席大法官下令Meta调查该频道是如何发展到如此规模的。Meta没有发现违规行为。

The channel, and its head-spinning growth, drew the attention of Mr. Bolsonaro and the electoral court. After a judicial arm wrestle between justices on the electoral court, the channel was allowed to stay up. But the court’s chief justice, who was appointed by the elder Mr. Bolsonaro, ordered Meta to investigate how it had grown so much. Meta found no irregularities.

在网上,卢拉的庞大支持者群体抓住了围绕小博索纳罗的腐败调查大做文章——后者并未被控犯罪。他们质疑他过去与里约犯罪地下世界人物的联系,以及他父亲对疫情的处理方式。他们还警告说,他削减公共支出的模糊计划存在风险,该计划受到阿根廷总统哈维尔·米莱实施的紧缩措施的启发。

Online, Mr. Lula’s army of supporters seized on corruption investigations swirling around the younger Mr. Bolsonaro, who has not been charged with a crime. They questioned his past links to figures from Rio’s criminal underworld and his father’s handling of the pandemic. And they warned about the risks of his vague plans to cut public spending, inspired by the austerity measures applied by President Javier Milei of Argentina.

“这个频道不会传播一条假新闻,”雅诺内斯命令他的追随者。“掌握事实的人不需要谎言!”雅诺内斯的频道呈指数级增长,最终达到1000万订阅者。就在投票前几天,它迎来了一位知名的新成员:卢拉终于有了他的第一部智能手机,并加入了这个频道。

“This channel will not spread a single piece of fake news,” Mr. Janones ordered his followers. “Those who have the facts have no need for lies!”Mr. Janones’s channel grew exponentially, eventually hitting 10 million subscribers. And just days before the vote, it welcomed a high-profile new member: Mr. Lula finally got his first smartphone and joined the channel.

“这是一个20世纪的人,在最后的时刻,想出了如何开展21世纪的竞选活动,”研究拉丁美洲的美国政治分析人士布莱恩·温特这样评价卢拉。

“This was a 20th-century man who, at the very last possible moment, figured out how to run a 21st-century campaign,” Brian Winter, an American political analyst who studies Latin America, said of Mr. Lula.

数字推动蔓延到现实世界,引发了大规模示威活动。它还帮助赢得了一些选民的支持,比如玛丽娜·达拉·利贝拉·佩德罗,她在周日带着孩子开了两天车,为卢拉投票,此前她跳过了第一轮投票。“我必须捍卫我们的权利,”40岁的佩德罗说,她是里约热内卢海岸小城里约达斯奥斯特拉斯的工程师,距离里约热内卢100英里。“我认为这是社会的崩溃。”一场有争议的投票然而,卢拉的惊人胜利为一场混乱的竞选画上了句号,这场竞选分裂了巴西,并有可能进一步削弱对其制度的信心。

The digital push spilled out into the real world, igniting mass demonstrations. And it helped win over some voters, like Marina Dalla Líbera Pedro, who drove for two days, with her children, to cast a ballot for Mr. Lula on Sunday, after skipping the first round. “I had to defend our rights,” said Ms. Pedro, 40, an engineer in Rio das Ostras, a small coastal city 100 miles from Rio de Janeiro. “I saw it as a collapse of society.”A contested vote Yet Mr. Lula’s stunning victory capped a chaotic race that has divided Brazil and risks further eroding faith in its institutions.

因公共交通延误和暴雨干扰投票,当局下令投票站延长开放时间。延长投票时间是两位候选人共同要求的,但该命令在投票即将结束时才下达,这导致博尔索纳罗周一表示,他计划对选举结果提出法律挑战。

Polls were ordered to remain open after public transportation delays and torrential rains disrupted voting. The extended polling hours, which both candidates asked for but came right as voting was set to conclude, led Mr. Bolsonaro on Monday to say he planned to legally challenge the outcome.

博尔索纳罗将巴西司法部门延长投票的命令称为“肮脏的把戏”。特朗普也批评了此次投票。“看起来很糟糕,”他在马里兰州的一个活动上对记者说。“我是说,我没有站队,但这看起来又是一场被操纵的选举。”仅有极小部分选票——0.03%——是在正常投票时间结束后投出的,选举法院首席大法官表示,延长投票时间并未改变结果,卢拉以显著优势获胜。

Mr. Bolsonaro called an order by Brazil’s judiciary to extend voting a “dirty trick.”Mr. Trump also criticized the vote. “It looked terrible,” he told reporters at an event in Maryland. “I mean, I didn’t take sides, but it looked like another rigged election.”Only a small fraction of the votes — 0.03 percent — were cast after regular voting hours, and the chief justice of the electoral authority said keeping polls open did not make a difference in the result, which saw Mr. Lula win by a notable margin.

尽管如此,博尔索纳罗的抱怨加上投票最后几小时出现的混乱,很可能会助长人们对巴西投票系统安全性的毫无根据的猜疑。

Still, Mr. Bolsonaro’s complaints, coupled with the confusion marking the last hours of voting, are likely to feed unfounded suspicions about the safety of the Brazilian voting systems.

国际专家一致认为,巴西的电子投票机——博尔索纳罗阵营频繁散布虚假信息攻击的目标——是世界上最安全的投票机之一。然而,一项民调显示,34%的巴西人不信任投票机,高于2022年的20%。

International experts agree Brazil’s electronic voting machines, a frequent target of misinformation attempts by Mr. Bolsonaro’s movement, are some of the most secure in the world. Yet a poll shows 34 percent of Brazilians distrust the voting machines, up from 20 percent in 2022.

在任期间,老博尔索纳罗毫无根据地质疑选举舞弊,并声称自己只有在选票被窃取的情况下才会落败。在他失败后,这些言论煽动支持者冲击政府建筑,要求军方推翻选举结果。亚当·B·埃利克是《纽约时报》巴西分社社长,驻圣保罗。

While in office, the elder Mr. Bolsonaro cast unfounded doubts about electoral fraud and claimed he could lose only if the vote were stolen. After his defeat, these claims inspired supporters to assault government buildings, demanding the military overturn the election result. Adam B. Ellick is The Times’s Brazil bureau chief, based in São Paulo.

杰克·尼卡斯是《纽约时报》墨西哥城分社社长,负责墨西哥、中美洲和加勒比地区的报道。

Jack Nicas is The Times’s Mexico City bureau chief, leading coverage of Mexico, Central America and the Caribbean.

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