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巴西紧张的总统决选竞选活动宛如心理惊悚片Brazil's tense presidential run-off campaign feels like a psychological thriller

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社交媒体上的互相侮辱和一场激烈的辩论,加剧了周日总统选举决选前的压力,左翼亲工会总统路易斯·伊纳西奥·卢拉·达席尔瓦与极右翼挑战者弗拉维奥·博尔索纳罗之间仅相差几个百分点,后者是前总统兼特朗普盟友若尔·博尔索纳罗的儿子。

Insults traded on social media and a combative debate have intensified the pressure ahead of a fiercely contested presidential run-off on Sunday, with only a few points separating leftist pro-union President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and far-right challenger Flavio Bolsonaro, the son of former president and Trump ally Jair Bolsonaro.

巴西总统选举的最后冲刺阶段正在进行,总统路易斯·伊纳西奥·卢拉·达席尔瓦(左)将面对极右翼挑战者弗拉维奥·博尔索纳罗。© AP et Studio graphique FMM 音乐震耳欲聋,花车和巴西国旗颜色的亮片装点街道,周三,数百名支持者在里约西部工人阶级社区班古举行狂欢节式集会,为右翼总统候选人弗拉维奥·博尔索纳罗助威。

The final stretch of the election campaign is under way in Brazil as President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva (L) faces far-right challenger Flavio Bolsonaro. © AP et Studio graphique FMM With music blaring, parade floats and glitter in the colours of the Brazilian flag, several hundred supporters rallied in street-carnival style on Wednesday in the working-class neighbourhood of Bangu, in western Rio, to support right-wing presidential candidate Flavio Bolsonaro In the heart of the Vidigal favela some 40 kilometres (25 miles) away, a few dozen members of President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva 's Workers’ Party were rallying the troops by handing out flyers to the last undecided voters.

在约40公里(25英里)外的维迪加尔贫民窟中心,几十名总统路易斯·伊纳西奥·卢拉·达席尔瓦的工人党成员正在向最后几名犹豫不决的选民发放传单,鼓舞士气。但在班古和维迪加尔,节日气氛已不复存在。双方动员“军队”自10月4日极其接近的首轮投票结果公布以来,两名候选人之间已宣战。来自米纳斯吉拉斯州的自封“总统总司令”议员安德烈·贾诺内斯创建了“卢拉军”——一个WhatsApp频道,仅在几天内就吸引了超过800万关注者。该频道旨在通过社交媒体或街头向活动人士和反博尔索纳罗派发出挑战,以动员他们。

But in both Bangu and Vidigal, the festive spirit is gone. Both camps mobilise their 'armies' Since the extremely close first-round results were announced on October 4, war has been declared between the two candidates. The self-proclaimed “Commander-in-Chief of the President”, MP André Janones of Minas Gerais, has created “Lula’s army” – a WhatsApp channel that garnered more than 8 million followers in just a few days. The channel aims to mobilise activists and anti- Bolsonaristas by issuing them challenges on social media or in the streets.

卢拉对未能在首轮投票中获胜感到意外,已将竞选指挥权移交给新一代当选党内官员。这些“数字战士”重振了他的竞选活动,后者在首轮投票前曾因停滞不前而受到批评。但这可能为时已晚、力度不足。“这是我自1989年以来参与过的最缺乏组织的竞选,我们种什么因,得什么果,”总统在与盟友议员的会议上承认道。

Surprised at not having won the first round, Lula has handed over control of his campaign to the younger generation of elected party officials. These digital soldiers have re-energised his campaign, which was criticised for its inertia before the first round. But it may be too little, too late. “This is the least-organised campaign I have taken part in since 1989, and we reap what we sow,” the president admitted in a meeting with allied lawmakers.

这位八十多岁的高龄总统最近开始拍摄自己的视频,身边总是伴随30岁以下的活动人士。目标是争取年轻不投票者,约690万巴西人——其中只需一小部分就足以扭转选情。里约热内卢联邦大学政治与选举观察站协调员若苏埃·梅代罗斯认为,这种数字觉醒可能会产生决定性影响。“摇摆选民比例已上升,达到7%至14%之间,这对首轮投票中排名第二的候选人是个好兆头,因为这些人正在动摇,可能改变投票意向。这意味着数字动员正在奏效;它制造了疑虑,削弱了首轮投票前非常强烈的那种卢拉总统被拒绝的感觉。”

The octogenarian president has recently begun filming himself, always accompanied by activists under 30. The goal is to win over young non-voters, some 6.9 million Brazilians – only a fraction of those would have been enough to tip the election. For Josue Medeiros, coordinator of the Political and Electoral Observatory at the Federal University of Rio de Janeiro, this digital awakening could make the difference. “The number of undecided voters has risen, to between 7 and 14%, and that is a good sign for whoever came second in the first round, because these are people who are wavering and could change their vote. It means this digital mobilisation is working; it creates doubt and reduces the sense that President Lula was being rejected, which was very strong before the first round.”

博尔索纳罗阵营方面也没有袖手旁观。面对卢拉的大军,弗拉维奥调动了自己的“部队”,由年轻议员尼科拉斯·费雷拉率领,后者可随时调动其2500万粉丝。他们的拿手好戏?利用AI生成内容抹黑左翼集会。

The Bolsonarist camp, for its part, is not sitting on its hands. Facing Lula’s army, Flavio has unleashed his own “troops”, led by young MP Nikolas Ferreira, who can activate his 25 million followers on demand. Their specialty? Using AI-generated content to disparage left-wing rallies.

数字战也已蔓延到法院。卢拉阵营指责Meta“算法操纵”偏袒博索纳罗,并请求最高选举法院取消挑战者的候选人资格。博索纳罗则反过来指责现任总统“滥用权力”,让WhatsApp上充斥赞扬其政府政绩的内容。在最高法院的压力下——该法院威胁对该公司处以每天约50万雷亚尔(8.85万欧元)的罚款——Meta现在表示已采取措施,保证对两位候选人一视同仁。

The digital battle has also moved into the courts. Accused of favouring the right-wing candidate, Lula’s camp denounced Meta for “algorithmic manipulation” in Bolsonaro's favour and asked the Superior Electoral Court to annul the challenger's candidacy. Bolsonaro, in turn, accused the incumbent of “abuse of power” for flooding WhatsApp with content praising his government’s record. Under pressure from the high court, which threatened the company with a fine of around R$500,000 (€88,500) per day, Meta now says it has put measures in place to guarantee equal treatment of both candidates.

民调差距缩小。博索纳罗在第一轮投票中以约47%对45%领先卢拉,似乎势头正盛:10月9日AtlasIntel的一项民调显示,他获得52.8%的选票,卢拉为47.2%。十天后,同一家机构显示他仅以51.1%对48.9%领先现任总统,而其他民调机构(Datafolha、Quaest、CNT/MDA)显示两位候选人之间的差距仅有一两个百分点。与此同时,卢拉在国会赢得了一场重大胜利:一项终止六天工作周的投票。

Polls tighten Having come out ahead in the first round with about 47% of the vote against 45% for Lula, Bolsonaro seemed to have the momentum: an October 9 AtlasIntel poll credited him with 52.8% of the vote to Lula's 47.2%. Ten days later, the same firm had him at only 51.1% against 48.9% for the incumbent president while other pollsters (Datafolha, Quaest, CNT/MDA) showed a gap of just one or two points between the candidates. In the meantime, Lula won a major victory in Congress: a vote to end the six-day work week.

参议院以75票对1票的压倒性多数通过该措施,使这项劳动法改革在决选临近之际成为一场战略胜利。博索纳罗阵营最初反对该措施,最终却投了赞成票。左翼现在警告说,博索纳罗如果当选将推翻该法律,因为他一直是企业主和农业综合企业的坚定盟友,而这些人曾激烈反对该法。卢拉在其Instagram账号发布的一段视频中说:“重要的是要记住,我们的对手昨天决定投票支持这项措施。但我们要保持警惕!他们投赞成票是出于选举投机主义。”

The overwhelming approval of this measure by the Senate (75 votes to 1) made this labour-law reform a strategic victory as the run-off approached. Initially opposed to the measure, the Bolsonarist camp ended up voting in favour. The left now warns that Bolsonaro will reverse the law if elected, given that he has been a staunch ally of business owners and agribusiness, which fiercely opposed the law. “It is important to remember that our opponents decided yesterday to vote for this measure. But let’s stay vigilant! They voted for it out of electoral opportunism,” Lula said in a video posted on his Instagram account.

在机会主义和撒谎的反复指控中,10月18日两位候选人首场辩论尚未达到白热化时,第二轮选举的基调就已变得紧张。这场对决备受期待,尤其是在卢拉拒绝在第一轮投票前与对手辩论之后。

xiety-provoking debate Amid repeated charges of opportunism and lying, the tone of the run-off had turned tense even before reaching a fever pitch in the first debate between the two candidates on October 18. The face-off was highly anticipated, particularly after Lula refused to debate his opponent ahead of the first round.

在Band频道直播的近两个小时的激烈辩论吸引了约1.58亿巴西选民的关注。但关于安全、卫生或经济方面,候选人们各自的政纲细节却鲜有提及——取而代之的是铺天盖地的侮辱和抨击,常常提及玷污两党的腐败指控。

contentious debate of nearly two hours live on the Band channel held the attention of some 158 million Brazilian voters. But little detail emerged on the candidates' respective platforms regarding security, health or the economy – instead there was an avalanche of insults and jabs, often referencing the allegations of corruption tainting both parties.

这场辩论本意是说服3300万弃权者在10月25日投票。但据里约热内卢大学政治学家若昂·费雷斯称,“巴西人观看辩论越来越少,辩论对投票意向影响不大。这场对决主要伤害了弗拉维奥·博索纳罗,他给人好斗的印象;巴西选民不喜欢那种行为。”

The debate was meant to convince the 33 million abstainers to vote on October 25. But according to Joao Ferres, political scientist at the University of Rio de Janeiro, “debates are watched less and less by Brazilians and do not influence voting intentions much. This confrontation mostly hurt Flavio Bolsonaro, who came across as aggressive; Brazilian voters don’t like that kind of behaviour.”

紧张的气氛导致众议员安德烈·雅诺内斯在辩论结束后不久因压力和疲劳引发严重心律失常而进入重症监护。他并非唯一遭受后遗症的人,一些观众报告了“政治焦虑”症状,包括冷汗、惊恐发作、易怒或失眠。

The electric atmosphere sent deputy Andre Janones to intensive care shortly after the debate with severe cardiac arrhythmia triggered by stress and fatigue He was not the only one to have suffered aftereffects, with some viewers reporting symptoms of " political anxiety " including cold sweats, panic attacks, irritability or insomnia.

辩论几天后,博索纳罗态度软化,同意在有条件的情况下接受卢拉的挑战,公开他们的银行、税务和电话记录。

A few days after the debate, Bolsonaro relented and agreed, with conditions to accept Lula's challenge to make their banking, tax and phone records public.

投票箱前的裁决 进步独立媒体“巴西出洞”在Instagram上建议尽早投票:“10月25日周日中午之前就去投票,因为之后会发生什么我们不知道。”卢拉的支持者也在敦促选民尽早前往投票站:“万一出现交通问题、投票站变更、排队或其他任何意外情况,你仍有时间找到解决办法并行使投票权,”他的团队发帖写道。在这场普遍预计将以几个百分点之差决出胜负的选举中,每一票都至关重要。

Verdict at the ballot box Progressive independent media outlet Brasil fora da Caverna recommended voting early on Instagram: “Go vote before noon on Sunday, October 25, because afterward we don’t know what might happen.”Lula’s supporters are also urging voters to go to the polls as early as possible: “In case of transport problems, a change of polling station, queues or any other unforeseen event, you will still have time to find a solution and exercise your right to vote,” his team posted on In an election that is widely expected to be decided by just a few points, every vote is going to count.

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