周日晚上,路易斯·伊纳西奥·卢拉·达席尔瓦在打破历史和民调预测赢得总统大选后的首次演讲中,传达了和解的信息。
On Sunday evening, in his first speech after defying history and pollsters to win the presidency, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva had a conciliatory message.
“既然我们已经赢得了选举,我们就没有对手了。我必须为2.14亿民众执政,”他说。
“Once we’ve won the election, we have no more opponents. I have to govern for 214 million people,” he said.
在他的竞选观选派对现场,他的政治盟友和记者们为了更好地看到这位左翼老将而爬上椅子;在圣保罗街头,支持者们挥舞着旗帜并高呼“卢拉”。在这些地方,人们很容易相信那种国家团结的信息。
Inside his campaign’s watch party, where his political allies and journalists climbed on to chairs for a better view of the Left-wing veteran, and outside on the streets of São Paulo, where supporters waved flags and chanted “Lula”, it was easy to believe in that message of national unity.
但还有另一个巴西,即由他的对手、右翼参议员弗拉维奥·博索纳罗所代表的巴西,全国有近一半的人投票支持他。
But there is also the other Brazil, the one represented by his opponent, Right-wing senator Flávio Bolsonaro, who just under half of the country voted for.
几分钟后,博索纳罗先生发表讲话称:“今天发生的事情是不正常的;事实上,这是不可接受的。”他呼吁废除投票结果,并声称由于投票时间的延长,卢拉的胜利是“卑鄙伎俩”的结果。
Speaking minutes later, Mr Bolsonaro said: “What happened today was not normal; in fact, it was unacceptable.”He called for the vote to be annulled and claimed, because of a voting extension, Lula’s victory had been the result of “a dirty trick”.
卢拉周日在多个方面创造了历史——他是自巴西回归民主以来,首位在首轮投票失利后在决选中获胜的候选人。他也是巴西任职时间最长的民主领导人。
Lula made history in more than one way on Sunday – he is the first-ever candidate to win a run-off after losing the first round of voting since Brazil’s return to democracy. He is also Brazil’s longest-serving democratic leader.
卢拉在赢得总统大选后向支持者挥手致意。最终,他成功扭转了该地区在过去七次大选中右翼候选人接连获胜的趋势。
Lula waves at supporters after winning the presidential election Finally, he managed to buck a trend that has seen Right-wing candidates triumph in the region in the last seven general elections.
他的胜利本应标志着一场动荡竞选的结束,这场竞选充斥着腐败丑闻、关于美国干预和压制选民的指控,以及一场受《哈利·波特》启发的社交媒体战争。
His victory should have signalled the end of a tumultuous campaign marked by corruption scandals, allegations of US interference and voter suppression, as well as a Harry Potter-inspired social media war.
但显而易见,这种情况并不会发生,深层的分歧和政治极化正蔓延至该国的各个机构。
But it is already clear that will not happen, with deep division and political polarisation spilling over into the country’s institutions.
这一点在选举日当天表现得十分明显。当时,最高法院大法官克里斯蒂亚诺·扎宁(Cristiano Zanin)采取了一项非同寻常的举措,将投票时间延长了两个小时,从下午5点延长至晚上7点。此前,卢拉的团队指控支持博索纳罗的市长们压制选民投票。扎宁此前曾担任卢拉的私人律师。
That much was evident on election day when, in an extraordinary move, Cristiano Zanin, a Supreme Court justice, extended voting by two hours, from 5pm to 7pm, after Lula’s team accused pro-Bolsonaro mayors of voter suppression. Mr Zanin had previously served as Lula’s personal lawyer. Lula’s campaign said officials in some nine states had reduced or otherwise hindered public transportation routes, making it more difficult for voters to get to the polls.
卢拉的竞选团队表示,约9个州的官员减少或以其他方式阻碍了公共交通路线,使得选民更难前往投票站。上一次投票时间被延长至正式截止时间之后是在1994年。
The last time voting was prolonged beyond the formal deadline was in 1994.
甚至在投票结束之前,两个阵营就已经在按照各自的说法来定义事件。
Even before voting ended, both camps were framing events on their own terms.
博索纳罗的竞选负责人罗热里奥·马里尼奥(Rogério Marinho)称延长投票时间是“司法政变”。
Rogério Marinho, Bolsonaro’s campaign chief, called the extension of voting a “judicial coup”.
与此同时,卢拉的社交媒体负责人安德烈·雅诺内斯(André Janones)敦促支持者们,尽管等待他们的是不可避免的胜利,“我们不能让这场胜利使我们忘记今天下午发生的未遂政变”。
Meanwhile, André Janones, Lula’s head of social media, urged supporters that, despite the inevitable triumph that awaited them, “we cannot let this victory make us forget the attempted coup that was perpetrated this afternoon”.
一旦卢拉获胜的消息变得明朗,极右翼政治人物雷南·桑托斯(Renan Santos)称其为“被玷污的”。
Once it became clear that Lula had won, far-Right politician Renan Santos called it “tainted”.
博索纳罗称选举结果“不可接受”,并拒绝承认败选。他表示应该重新举行选举,“以避免冲突,包括发生武装冲突或街头冲突的可能性”。
Mr Bolsonaro called the results ‘unacceptable’ and refused to concede He said the election should be held again “to avoid conflict, including the possibility of armed conflict or street clashes”.
这显然是指2023年1月8日爆发的暴力冲突,当时在卢拉就职一周后,雅伊尔·博索纳罗的支持者冲击了最高法院、国会和总统府。
It was a clear reference to the violent clashes that erupted on Jan 8, 2023, when Jair Bolsonaro supporters stormed the Supreme Court, Congress and the presidential palace, a week after Lula took office.
博索纳罗因策划政变被判处27年监禁,其中包括一项谋杀卢拉的计划。但如果说这个选举周期证明了一件事,那就是导致这一切的根本性两极分化并没有走远。
Bolsonaro was sentenced to 27 years in prison for directing a coup, which included a plan to have Lula killed. But if this election cycle has proved one thing, it is that the underlying polarisation that led it hasn’t gone far.
距离选举还有一天时,大多数民调机构无法给出谁处于领先地位的图景,预测差距之小,以至于连天气这样看似微不足道的事件都可能左右最终结果。
With one day to go until the election, most pollsters could not give a picture on who was in the lead, predicting a margin so thin that even an event as seemingly insignificant as the weather could sway the outcome one way or another.
对巴西选民面临的选择,一种解读是:这是右翼变革与左翼延续的对决,前者由博尔索纳罗代表,后者由卢拉代表。但在实地感受到的竞选氛围却截然不同。
One read of the choice Brazilians had in the election was that it was one between Right-wing change, represented by Mr Bolsonaro, and Left-wing continuity, represented by Lula. But, on the ground, the campaign had an entirely different flavour.
支持者涌上巴西街头庆祝卢拉获胜 在候选人的首场电视辩论中,围绕腐败和“马斯特银行”丑案——巴西历史上最大的银行丑闻——的人身攻击占据了比政策讨论更多的时间,迫使第二场辩论的主持人不得不警告候选人避免人身侮辱。双方的对峙在网络上演的程度,不亚于在街头。
Supporters flooded streets in Brazil to celebrate Lula’s win In the candidates’ first televised debate, personal attacks over corruption and Banco Master, the biggest banking scandal in Brazil’s history, took up more airtime than policy, forcing the host of the second debate to warn against personal insults. The standoff between the two sides played out as much online as it did on the streets.
一个名为“卢拉的军队”的WhatsApp群组——这是向《哈利·波特》系列中对抗邪恶势力的学生组织“邓布利多的军队”致敬——拥有超过1000万关注者,曾被暂停两次。此前,巴西选举法院院长、博尔索纳罗的盟友主张该群组包含虚假信息。这两次,他的同僚法官均推翻了该决定。
A WhatsApp group called “Lula’s army” — a nod to “Dumbledore’s Army”, the group of students who fight evil forces in the Harry Potter series — with more than 10 million followers, was suspended twice after the head of Brazil’s electoral court, a Bolsonaro ally, argued it contained misinformation. Both times, his fellow judges overturned the decision.
此外,卢拉团队本月初向法院提出投诉,指控Meta压制其内容,同时放大博尔索纳罗的内容。Meta否认干预竞选,并称卢拉团队遇到的问题是“技术故障”。
Separately, Lula’s team earlier this month filed a complaint with the court accusing Meta of suppressing its content while amplifying Mr Bolsonaro’s. Meta has denied campaign meddling and has called the problems experienced by Lula’s team “technical incidents”.
俯瞰卢拉支持者庆祝总统连任的场景 对很大一部分选民而言,两位候选人都代表着腐败的政治文化,这种文化允许腐败行为和权钱交易持续存在。
An aerial view of Lula supporters celebrating the president’s re-election To a large part of the electorate, both candidates represent a rotten political culture, that allows corrupt practices and influence peddling to continue.
在此背景下,候选人的主要资本在于激发选民对对手的恐惧与排斥。
Against that backdrop, the candidates’ main capital was to inspire fear towards and rejection of the other.
博尔索纳罗竞选承诺要解救其父,并弹劾判决其父有罪的法官亚历山大·德·莫赖斯。卢拉团队则警告,博尔索纳罗获胜将意味着民主和国家主权的终结。
Mr Bolsonaro campaigned to free his father and impeach the judge that convicted him, Alexandre de Moraes. Lula’s team warned a Bolsonaro win would be the end of democracy and national sovereignty.
抹黑策略奏效了。据巴西民调机构Datafolha在投票前夕发布的一项调查,44%的受访者表示担心博索纳罗获胜,而42%的人担心卢拉再次执政。
The discrediting strategy worked. According to a survey published by the Brazilian pollster Datafolha on the eve of the vote, 44 per cent of respondents said they feared a Bolsonaro victory, compared to 42 per cent that feared another Lula term.
支持者燃放信号弹和烟花,在街道上游行。本月初首轮投票的弃权率创下1998年以来的最高纪录——五分之一的巴西人选择留在家中。
Supporters lit flares and fireworks as they paraded through streets The abstention rate during the first round of voting earlier this month was at its highest since 1998 – one in five Brazilians stayed home.
在以2个百分点之差败给博索纳罗后,卢拉的竞选团队着手扭转局势,发起了一场充满活力的社交媒体攻势,并大举投入资金。
After losing to Bolsonaro by 2 percentage points, Lula’s campaign set about turning it around, mounting an energised social media push and went on a spending spree.
这为他带来了新的声势,亲卢拉团体组织了一些巴西近代史上规模最大的政治集会,形成了声势浩大的支持浪潮。周日的决选中,弃权率降至2006年以来最低,这对卢拉有利。
It gave him new momentum, with pro-Lula groups organising some of the largest political rallies in recent Brazilian history in a groundswell of support. During the run-off on Sunday, the abstention rate was the lowest since 2006, to Lula’s benefit.
“人们去投票是因为我们说服了他们,维护民主至关重要,”卢拉在胜选演讲中说。
“People went to vote because we convinced them it was important to preserve democracy,” Lula said in his victory speech.
但即便获胜了,他仍未放过对手。“我从未想过一个人能撒谎撒到这种地步。仿佛他身上没有一丝人性,”他在胜选演讲伊始对现场观众说道。
But even having won, he was not done with his opponent. “I never imagined that a person could lie so much. As if there wasn’t a shred of humanity in him,” he told the room early on in his victory speech.
考虑到卢拉现在面临着由博索纳罗领导的自由党(PL)主导国会的艰巨执政任务,这种攻击或许并不明智。
Such an attack might have been unwise given that Lula now faces the daunting task of governing with a congress dominated by Bolsonaro’s Liberal Party, the PL.
但在行政与立法机关对峙可能有多紧张的早期信号中,工人党(PT)议员雷吉纳尔多·洛佩斯对记者表示:“国会是人民的敌人。”周日早些时候,中右派人士、南里奥格兰德州州长爱德华多·莱特——他今年早些时候退出了总统竞选——告诉记者,他投了“两害相权取其轻”,但未透露投给了谁。
But in an early sign of how tense the standoff between the executive and legislative is likely to become, Reginaldo Lopes, a PT legislator, told journalists: “Congress is an enemy of the people.”Early on Sunday, Eduardo Leite, the centre-Right governor of Rio Grande do Sul, who dropped out of the presidential race earlier this year, told reporters he had voted for “the lesser of two evils”, without disclosing for whom.
考虑到胜负差距极可能很小,他敦促获胜者在一个严重分裂的国家避免得意忘形。到目前为止,卢拉和博索纳罗似乎都没有采纳他的建议。
Considering how small the margin was likely to be, he urged the winner to avoid triumphalism in a closely divided country. So far, neither Lula nor Bolsonaro appeared to take his advice.